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10 to 20 inches of rain...


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...forecast for the next 48 hours in the Olympics and Cascades. :cry: Remember what 18 inches did to Sunshine Campground, the WT, and the road to Paradise? Better pump up those mountain bike tires or change the oil in that Honda Ruckus if you want to get to your favorite trail head this summer. Shit!

 

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.AVALANCHE...SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND HEAVY SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR

HEAVY WET SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEVERELY STRESS

EXISTING SNOWPACK. THIS INCLUDES NOT ONLY WEAK LAYERS WITHIN THE 2

TO 5 FEET OF SNOW RECEIVED SINCE STRONGER LAYERS FORMED ON NEW YEARS

DAY...BUT ALSO THE ENTIRE WINTER SNOW COVER IN PLACES. EXTREME

DANGER LIKELY DEVELOPING IN MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 4-5000

FEET...SOME CLIMAX SLIDES MAY REACH THE GROUND WITH SLAB DEPTHS

RANGING UP TO 6 TO 10 FEET OR MORE. BACKCOUNTRY TRAVEL SHOULD BE

AVOIDED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOORE

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You are using a 36km domain to look at short term forecasting, try looking at the Nam 12km or even finer the GFS 4km domain

 

why dont you add up the precip on say the west side of the Olympics over 48 hours and see what you get.

 

I get about 18" from the GFS 4Km and about 14 " from the NAM 12km

 

36km domain is good for long range not great for short range

 

Cheers

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The 30-year record, 24-hour rainfall for Hope is 173mm or about 7 inches. 20 inches in 48 hours is nutz. I can see that for the wet west side of the Olympics and Van Island where they get up to 400mm/24h, but I don't think the Cascades are gonna get anywhere near 20 inches.

 

You regularly receive 7 inches up there, no?

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It appears at this time the snow level is around 5300 feet give or take a hundred feet. Based on data from various snotel stations.

 

and at those locations above 5300 feet I see accumulations of about 1 foot in about 6 hours...but take that with a grain of salt.

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