genepires Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 hours ago, Rad said: Gene, it's easier if you flip it around. The chance of nothing happening in your model is 99%, or 0.99. The chance of nothing happening two days in a row is 0.99 x 0.99 = 0.98. The chance of nothing happening a hundred days is 0.99 to the 100th power. If you calculate this you get 36.6%. Which means there is a 63.3% chance something bad will happen if you climb 100 days with each day having a 1% chance of that bad thing happening. My question makes it a bit more complicated than your scenario. I asked a math professor and got a good answer but I did not fully understand at the time. My question is what is the chance of the event (death) happening at some point in X trials. So it is the chance of death on first try plus second on and on till X times but also negating the future possibilities after the death event. Nothing simple about it. 😀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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