DPS Posted September 23, 2016 Posted September 23, 2016 What is the word on the street regarding the climate this winter? Cold and wet? Warm and dry? Quote
Ted Raven Posted September 23, 2016 Posted September 23, 2016 It's supposed to be cold in the Canadian Rockies this winter. It has been hitting -5oC already in the valleys which certainly bodes well. There's not a lot of snow and ice yet though. Quote
Jeremy.0 Posted September 23, 2016 Posted September 23, 2016 Was looking to be cool and wet a couple months back with a la nina watch, but that has since shifted to a more normal outlook now. Quote
dberdinka Posted September 23, 2016 Posted September 23, 2016 Keep an eye on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4  They say warm to start then "normal". Whatever that means these days.  Cliff Mass frequently these sorts of things as well.  Basically I see another frustrating winter ahead..... Quote
AlpineK Posted September 24, 2016 Posted September 24, 2016 La Nina was the word a few months ago. Since that time NOAA backtracked to a, "Normal," winter.  A recent report on North Pacific ocean temperatures implied there was quite a bit of warm water out there  [img:center]https://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/news/features/food_chain/images/map.jpg[/img]  Not since records began has the region of the North Pacific Ocean been so warm for so long. The warm expanse has been characterized by sea surface temperatures as much as three degrees C (about 5.4 degrees F) higher than average, lasting for months, and appears on large- scale temperature maps as a red-orange mass of warm water many hundreds of miles across.  We'll find out in a couple months Quote
matt_warfield Posted September 24, 2016 Posted September 24, 2016 La Nina was the word a few months ago. Since that time NOAA backtracked to a, "Normal," winter. A recent report on North Pacific ocean temperatures implied there was quite a bit of warm water out there   We'll find out in a couple months  Normal is restricted to a setting on your washing machine. Quote
AlpineK Posted September 24, 2016 Posted September 24, 2016 My cloths washer says, "COTTON/NORMAL" Quote
G-spotter Posted October 1, 2016 Posted October 1, 2016 With atmospheric CO2 above 400 ppm, that normal is gonna be "new normal" not "old normal". Quote
Choada_Boy Posted October 6, 2016 Posted October 6, 2016 There was fresh snow on Baker yesterday morning, and a dusting on the summits of the Twinsistometer. Cool enough in Deming this morning that it's probably snowing up high right now. Quote
G-spotter Posted October 6, 2016 Posted October 6, 2016 Just enough snow that everybody buys new boots and ski passes, then warm rain for the rest of the year. Duh. Quote
Pete_H Posted October 6, 2016 Posted October 6, 2016 I predict Ivan will drink a lot of cheap red wine this winter. Quote
ivan Posted October 6, 2016 Posted October 6, 2016 i wish - dude, the Man keeps kicking up the price of me dear burgundy Quote
DPS Posted October 6, 2016 Author Posted October 6, 2016 WWNSS - what would ned stark say? I lost me bloody head? Quote
JasonG Posted October 17, 2016 Posted October 17, 2016 Latest ENSO Discussion points back towards a weak La Nina.... Quote
Eric T Posted October 20, 2016 Posted October 20, 2016 (edited) The remnants of that tropical storm were supposed to hit western wa last Saturday. Two days out everyone was buying food and fueling, costco ran out of bread. Then the storm hit???? NOT. Â If they can't call the storm of the decade two days out why does anyone take the seasonal forcast seriously or dare I say AGW... Edited October 20, 2016 by Eric T Quote
G-spotter Posted October 21, 2016 Posted October 21, 2016 Â If they can't call the storm of the decade two days out why does anyone take the seasonal forcast seriously or dare I say AGW... Â Weather and climate are two different things. Â If you eat a whole head of cabbage, you might reasonably expect a colon blowout the next day, but try predicting it to the nearest second a day in advance. Quote
Rad Posted October 22, 2016 Posted October 22, 2016 Weather and climate are two different things. Â Can you please explain this to the climate change doubters in the US? They bring snowballs into Congress and say, "See, it's not warming". I kid you not. Quote
Eric T Posted October 23, 2016 Posted October 23, 2016 Don't get me wrong, I'm not a climate denialist. It's just some of the predictions thrown around are alarmist. An example that pops to mind is the prediction in 1999 that Himalayan glaciers that were supposed to melt and disappear by 2014 causing a huge drought and humanitarian crisis. Â https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/ipcc-finally-acknowledges-its-e2809chimalayan-blundere2809d/ Â Â Â Quote
genepires Posted October 24, 2016 Posted October 24, 2016 that is the nature of predictions. if the accuracy of predictions follows a bell shaped curve, like most things human, there will be times that they get it wrong. Those are the times people remember, not the 90% of the time they get the forecast right. Quote
G-spotter Posted October 25, 2016 Posted October 25, 2016 Don't get me wrong, I'm not a climate denialist. It's just some of the predictions thrown around are alarmist. An example that pops to mind is the prediction in 1999 that Himalayan glaciers that were supposed to melt and disappear by 2014 causing a huge drought and humanitarian crisis.  https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/ipcc-finally-acknowledges-its-e2809chimalayan-blundere2809d/    Hmmm, don't bet on them sticking around forever though  http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2016/10/24/tibet-avalanches-1/ Quote
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