j_b Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I haven't seen an overview of the slide yet. Has anyone seen any info as to how the snowpack likely failed (in the trees apparently?) and a terrain description? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iain Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I was curious if it released on the widespread surface hoar reported in the Stevens Pass and Methow areas in the days before the storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twz Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 It appears that the forecast was High on the upper slopes and Considerable on the lower slopes of Cowboy Mountain  NWAC History Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seamstress Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Haven't seen a good analysis yet. Further south, the Cascades generally had a significant ice layer formed by a rain event at the end of the last big storm cycle, followed by cold. Note the numerous climbing accidents in places where climbers generally unrope and feel safer - Crater Rock on Hood had three accidents in the previous week including a fatality. Actually, I still see two significant ice layers in the snowpacks round here with sow not bonding. Â Keep checking the NWAC where a report should eventually be posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dannible Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 It appears that the forecast was High on the upper slopes and Considerable on the lower slopes of Cowboy Mountain  NWAC History  I'm somewhat confident that NWAC reported Considerable for those SW to SE facing slopes and high for N and NW facing slopes at that elevation that day. I may well be wrong but I read and reread that a couple of times afterwards. The lower slopes on that map are moderate. The difference is small and subject to error due to wind transport and a lot of other variables, but there is a difference. Not making excuses for the guys, just trying to get the facts straight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurthicks Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Dan is correct, although NWAC did their usual midday update on Sunday at 3pm (after the accidents) which upgraded the danger rating from Considerable to High on all slopes above 5000'. Â Here's the forecast you would have had if you checked NWAC on Sunday morning (produced Saturday morning at 11am). Â http://www.nwac.us/archive/sabsea_2012-02-18-1055.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orion_sonya Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I was not up there on Sunday - were there sunbreaks? The forecast mentions increased danger do to sun exposure on the south facing slopes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BirdDog Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I was not up there on Sunday - were there sunbreaks? The forecast mentions increased danger do to sun exposure on the south facing slopes. Â I headed up to Stevens on Sunday with my kids to ski inbounds. We got there about 10AM, and were turned back due to all parking full. On the way up the sun was definitely breaking through the clouds. I don't know what the sun was doing at the time of the slide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seamstress Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Most ironically, the fundraiser for the NWAC - VertFest - was held that weekend at Alpental. It is a travesty that they aren't in operation for a longer part of the ski mountaineering season and operate on such a shoestring budget. People can not abdicate responsibility for their safety, but people are in fact using their reports to help them make decisions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tvashtarkatena Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 The new NWAC avi map is really kewl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dougd Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I think alpine climbing was more fun before the "information age" arrived. Another thread, another time perhaps... Â My, but the handringers are out of their holes aren't they... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tvashtarkatena Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 That's just because you were younger! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dougd Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 That's just because you were younger! Â Yeah, no doubt. Â Now I'm "older", and I do use a lot of the weather and avy information available before trips but it can be a detriment if one let's it overtake common sense, thoughtful planning, and experience to cancel trips where dangers can be managed as they should be with or without all the technology, ad nauseam... Â Anyway, let the handwringing and gnashing of teeth continue. My apologies for interrupting. Â d Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tvashtarkatena Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 But all that data at your finger tips just helps you point cherry pick the conditions better! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twz Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Even if the danger was just Considerable, the advice is:  "Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential."  And the Likelihood of avalanches is:  "Natural avalanches possible; human- triggered avalanches likely."  Avy Danger Scale  Based on this advice I would avoid these slopes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle_Flick Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Telemarker and I were out skiing in the backcountry the weekend before on the north side of Mt. Stuart in low to moderate avy conditions as reported in NWAC and still experienced an avalanche. So my advice is before heading out into the backcountry, make sure your Will and life insurance are all in place. S@#t happens, and we aren't yet ready to sit out our days on the couch eating bon bons. You've heard the old adage before: The more you're out there, the greater are your chances of getting caught in an avalanche. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcg Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I'm surprised at how many people head for steep bc slopes when avy conditions are considerable, let alone high. If you've taken Avy 1 you've learned that most avy deaths occur in moderate (level 2) conditions. What you can take away from this statistic is that most people stay away from level 3 (considerable) and up and that level 2 is plenty to kill you. As a first rule of thumb I simply do not head for steep slopes in winter within 48 hours of the end of the last storm. Sure I've missed a lot of great days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seamstress Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The 48 hour rule won't work all the time. It may be unusual in the Cascades, but we do have some persistent unbonded layers out there. Â I often choose to travel in avalanche terrain during early morning hours when the slopes will be more stable, and be off early. I also may choose ridgelines and spend very little time in actual avalanche paths. I may choose to perform tests on the desired slope before skiing it. I may remain in the bootpack and not venture into the pristine snow. There are many ways to manage risk. That doesn't reduce the risk to zero. I am very conservative, but I do realize that the risk is not zero, and it may be more risk than others are willing to take. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcg Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The 48 hour rule won't work all the time. I didn't mean to infer that waiting 48 hours makes it safe, only that I use it as a first rule of thumb, meaning I don't even think about going skiing on steep terrain until 48 hours have past. Waiting 48 hours is never a green light for me. But not waiting 48 hours is an absolute red light. That doesn't mean I won't get out. I just may head for Zig Zag glacier or somewhere that I can avoid avy terrain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coldfinger Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I would add that all this really is modeling based on selected (read sparse) sampling and not real time data. Â I get a knot in my stomach sometimes as I know conditions are probably worse than what is being projected. Â Or put another way, a "considerable" warning could be very very wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonG Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 My experience over the years is that often times "considerable" forecasts turn out to be overly conservative and the stability is much better than predicted. Of course, it is that one time that gets you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rad Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 I'm not an expert, but it's not too hard to imagine situations (e.g. shifting wind directions, variable cloud cover) where snow stability varies widely within a small area. So no matter what the forecast or hazard rating is one needs to assess the local terrain carefully. Â Perhaps ice climbing, another sport I haven't taken up due to time constraints and concerns about objective hazards, shares this feature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZimZam Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Slide today in CO [video:youtube] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sobo Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Lucky fukkerz... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZimZam Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 kinda like someone filming the incoming tsunami from the shoreline. Oh fuck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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