This weekends weather

[frankjones]

Looking for a discussion. Warm weather is moving in over the weekend. What is that going to do to the snowpack, and would Sunday or Monday be a feasible day to summit one of the volcanoes?

 

 

[rfoster]

Please see http://www.nwac.us.

[billcoe]

what follows is opinion, and you know what they say about that.

 

IF THE NEXT DAYS PREDICTED RAIN IS ACTUALLY SNOW AND IT DUMPS FOR 3-4 DAYS AT ELEVATION, WHEN IT WARMS UP IN THE HOT DRY SUNNY DAYS PREDICTED FOR SAT AND SUN, BE ELSEWHERE. the end

 

 

Elsewhere might still be on a knife ridge in an alpine setting, steep granite probably with south facing exposure where stuff has sluffed off and has dryed out, and anything under the weeks snow level should be fantastic. 'Squitos will still be sleeping in most likely. A lot of that is dependent on Fridays weather. I was in a cirque of a Mt range once where EVERY North facing slope chose to avy within min of each other. The sun and already warmed up the south facing slopes and they had consolidated.

 

They're calling out this:

"An increasingly dangerous snowpack is expected at higher elevations in the Cascades and Olympics late this week, especially on the volcanoes above 7 to 8000 ft".

 

Which is most of the bigger volcano slogs around (and they'll be crowded too cause its nice up there when it's hot here:-) . Even then, if you get out and camp high, run up (is slogging through knee deep-thigh deep + snow running?) anything steep and be down before it warms......and that also leaves a lot still available to do safety. Or just go rock climbing. I figure that anything below 7M feet but certainly below the 3000-4000 foot level will be perfect, no 'squitos till you get to lower elevations (as of yesterday I played hooky on work so I'm attesting too it, although they may be there in a couple of days) and just the right temp for a great day if the weathermans 80 degree valley call out is accurate. Or hiking in the mid-height valleys too will be awesome.

 

That's my take. In fact, if it don't sluff off sat-sun, then Monday might be a great day to be on a volcano. Be safe, have fun all.

[ivan]

climb rock. if you don't know how to clibm rock, here's your glorious excuse

[jshamster]

yeah. what ivan said.

 

go climb a rock or two. plenty of time left to slog on volcanoes when shit settles down.

[frankjones]

Advice taken. climbing rock this weekend, hitting volcano mid-week next week. (partner coming in from ways off, so not too fexible.) If it still is sluffing tuesday, will chalk it up to a nice hike in and fun on the lower mountain.

 

Thanks all.

[JoshK]

Yeah, what they all said.

 

This:

.TONIGHT...SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM. SNOW LEVEL 5500 FEET. .THURSDAY...SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 5500 FEET. .THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 6500 FEET. .FRIDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 7000 FEET.

 

Followed by this:

SATURDAY...SUNNY. FREEZING LEVEL RISING TO 12000 FEET. AFTERNOON

PASS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. FREEZING LEVEL RISING TO 14000 FEET.

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. FREEZING LEVEL 13500 FEET.

 

 

...equals not good.

[RaisedByPikas]

How do you guys think it will look on some of the non volcano cascades peaks such as eldorado or anything around there?

[KirkW]

How do you guys think it will look on some of the non volcano cascades peaks such as eldorado or anything around there?

 

 

Nice troll...maybe Ivan will bite.

[G-spotter]

On the other hand conditions under 9000 ft or so might just be ideal.

[zeroforhire]

Eldo still has tons of snow. I would still be wary of the avalanche possibility.

 

Go find some rock.

[ivan]

How do you guys think it will look on some of the non volcano cascades peaks such as eldorado or anything around there?

 

 

Nice troll...maybe Ivan will bite.

managed to resist quite well actually, having just had my balls snipped last week i've been studiously avoiding the thought of putting any sorta harness contraption anywhere near me johnson (man)for awhile so deez kinda questions have all seemed rather remote n' academic

 

on the other hand, i have been wailing on "time pilot" during my 1980s arcade game renaissance teh past few dayz

[JasonG]

WA pass is going to be very dangerous this weekend. I would stay clear.

[summitchaserCJB]

WA pass is going to be very dangerous this weekend. I would stay clear.

F***. How about MOnday/?

[G-spotter]

Squamish is going to be very dangerous this weekend, too. Best bet is probably Index or Frenchman's.

[summitchaserCJB]

No way. It's all about exit 38. Less chance of moss slides.

[JoshK]

I dunno, safety first and all...I'd recommend people just stick with Mount Si or Tiger Mountain for the next month or so.

[jmace]

hahha

 

ppl never learn, its June and ppl planning their weekend 4-5 days out hahahahah

 

Sundays weather is going to shit real quick

 

LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...

ALL LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS ABOUT A DAY FASTER WITH A MARINE

PUSH...WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY DEVELOPING SAT EVENING OR

EARLY SUN. MODELS ALSO APPEARS STRONGER WITH EACH RUN IN BRINGING A

DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE SE GULF OF ALASKA INTO B.C. OR WESTERN WA

[bstach]

hahha

 

ppl never learn, its June and ppl planning their weekend 4-5 days out hahahahah

 

+1

[counterfeitfake]

hahha

 

ppl never learn, its June and ppl planning their weekend 4-5 days out hahahahah

 

Sundays weather is going to shit real quick

 

LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...

ALL LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS ABOUT A DAY FASTER WITH A MARINE

PUSH...WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY DEVELOPING SAT EVENING OR

EARLY SUN. MODELS ALSO APPEARS STRONGER WITH EACH RUN IN BRINGING A

DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE SE GULF OF ALASKA INTO B.C. OR WESTERN WA

 

Where do you get writeups like this?

[AlpineK]

[font:Arial Black]ALERT[/font]

 

Special Statement regarding weekend weather

 

Stay indoors this weekend!

 

Watch TV and order pizza by phone. Make sure you have enough beer and or vodka/tequila or whatever to last till Monday.

 

Go back to work on Monday and forget about the mountains.

[Water]

NOAA Point-Click Forecast

 

 

 

Use the map to click the area you want. Then scroll down to Forecast Discussion

 

You will find this information much more valuable overall than weather sites like weather.com or accuweather 10-day forecasts, imo.

[jmace]

NOAA NWS has superior products for the public than say Canada NWS

 

This is THE standard for weather briefings with graphical representation to help!!!! You can email them and tell them you support their products they will email you back, they are GREAT

 

The point click forecasts are poor, you should just read below, as far as I know they are just computer generated using one model for data. Read below and you will see why that can be a poor way to get your weather

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/gafd/latest_webafd.html

[Water]

yes, to clarify the point click is a way to get a discussion for an area. ie: the point click for Mt Hood is a bit different than the one for near Baker.

hood area:

.LONG TERM..THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DAY OF SUNNY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS IS ON TAP...EXCEPT LATER IN THE DAY NEAR THE COAST. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE MARINE PUSH ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY DOWN A BIT FROM SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES ON EAST...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS BY MONDAY.

 

Yes the Point-click specifically for an elevation on some peak is interpolated from the predicted and present data from the nearest weather station, I believe. It is not terribly accurate for instance getting the forecast for 10,000ft on Mt Adams, at all, but at the same time can offer some general ideas, though the forecast discussion is where the meat of 'whats up' is.

[iain]

As said above, always get the zone discussion. That's actually a human meteorologist interpreting the data and making adjustments to the model forecast, rather than just the computer model forecast alone, which is the point forecast as far as I know.

 

In Oregon, for instance, the southern Cascades zone forecast is almost always better than the model's point forecasts.