Statistics and Danger on Dragontail

[Buckaroo]

A buddy and I want to try Dragontail weather permitting. I've heard over the years of some people dying there and did a search. Since 1974 at least six people have died on Dragontail.

 

Does this seem like an excessive number? Like for some reason is the Stuart range more dangerous or is it just a higher number of climbers? Like I've never heard of anyone dying on the Liberty Bell group, just saying.

 

Are there any estimates for the number of climbers in the Stuart range verses the number of Climbers at WA pass since 1974? Or is it the fact that the Stuart range is more alpine and WA pass is more roped technical climbing?

[Pete_H]

Dragontail is a big mountain with a lot of loose rock as well as some glacier issues. Since access is pretty easy maybe it sucks a lot of people in who don't have a ton of alpine experience.

[dberdinka]

The fact is there are an amazing number of dead people everywhere in the Cascades. (Well not actually bodies, but you know what I mean). I just spent the weekend near a gentle barely-alpine pass full of blueberries. Even there, there was a fatality about 2 years ago when a snowmobiler was caught in a large avalanche.

 

On Mt Shuksan I've hard of numerous deaths. A party falls of the North Face, a guy disappears on the hike out from the Price Glacier, another falls down the Fisher Chimney's in early season, an accident on the NW arete. A little to the west it seems that half-a-dozen people have diappeared on the Ptarmigan Ridge trail over the years (notorious for poor visibility in bad weather)

 

The point is.... 6 doesn't really seem all that significant. If you really researched it I bet you'd be surprised by how many deaths have occured on practically every major mountain in the range over the years.

[toproper]

Interesting question....

both backbone and serpentine require some unroped scrambling at the base. I know at least one of the fatalities (I believe the most recent) occurred here. Also, dragontail sees much more winter and shoulder season climbing than WA pass due to the fact that WA pass is closed at least 5 months of every year. Dragontail also has technical ice climbing (triple couloirs e.g.)

which WA pass does not. I wonder if any of the fatalities were on this route or on winter ascents of dragontail?

[goatboy]

I know that there was a double fatality due to avalanche on the N Face of Dragontail, though I don't remember if it was on the Triple Couloirs or a neighboring route.

 

In general, given the hundreds (thousands?) of ascents over the past 40 years, 6 doesn't seem like that many. At least, not in a way that would keep me from wanting to climb it (which I have, by 3 different routes).

[ivan]

if you can look at dragontail from across the lake and not feel at least a slight twinge of fear, you're either stupid or totally hardcore

 

that is to say, it's a hard mtn not to take seriously, regardless of how many its killed

[G-spotter]

How many deaths on Hood over the same time?

[dinomyte]

I would guess that the reasons for people dying on Hood and Dragotail differ slightly. No doubt the sheer number of climbers would be a commonality, assuming that Dragontail gets more than it's fair share, but......

[Choada_Boy]

Just last week, I drove my motorcycle over the very spot where a guy had just died on his motorcycle. Does that make the spot dangerous? Or the driver?

[j_b]

I know that there was a double fatality due to avalanche on the N Face of Dragontail, though I don't remember if it was on the Triple Couloirs or a neighboring route.

 

Kathy and hope? but I am not sure it is known for certain that it was due to an avalanche. It was a warm day and there was a little fresh snow: http://www.alpenglow.org/themes/subalpine/hope-kathy.html (a reprint on Lowell's site)

[Buckaroo]

Don Heller, Jan 1974, on descent after Triple Couloir

 

Hope Barns, Kathy Phibbs, Jan 1991, Triple Couloir

 

Otto and Max Vaclavek, Sept 2007, scrambling

 

Andrea Basque, Aug 2008, scrambling on start of Serpentine.

 

 

So really rough guess 4 climbers per week since 1974. 7,280 climbers in 35 years. So .082 percent deaths.

 

[rob]

Just last week, I drove my motorcycle over the very spot where a guy had just died on his motorcycle. Does that make the spot dangerous? Or the driver?

 

Or motorcycles? Just saying.

Edited September 14, 2009 by rob

[dberdinka]

I think Justin's referring to the rockwalled hairpin corner on Hwy 542 about halfway up Pan Dome. This is a popular 50+' drop in the winter. Couple summers ago a guy on a Harley neglected to take the corner and ended up filleted on the big boulders below. Gruesome.

[dberdinka]

Don Heller, Jan 1974, on descent after Triple Couloir

 

Hope Barns, Kathy Phibbs, Jan 1991, Triple Couloir

 

Otto and Max Vaclavek, Sept 2007, scrambling

 

Andrea Basque, Aug 2008, scrambling on start of Serpentine.

 

 

So really rough guess 4 climbers per week since 1974. 7,280 climbers in 35 years. So .082 percent deaths.

 

Notice that they all presumably died on what is 3rd class terrain (conjecture regarding Triple Couloirs but 90% of that route is moderately angled snow). Consider how little of that exists at WA Pass where one is either hiking or pitching it out.

[Choada_Boy]

I think Justin's referring to the rockwalled hairpin corner on Hwy 542 about halfway up Pan Dome. This is a popular 50+' drop in the winter. Couple summers ago a guy on a Harley neglected to take the corner and ended up filleted on the big boulders below. Gruesome.

 

More like the high speed dismount into a car at the intersection in front of Lowe's last week. Gruesome.

[MarkMcJizzy]

Don Heller, Jan 1974, on descent after Triple Couloir

 

Hope Barns, Kathy Phibbs, Jan 1991, Triple Couloir

 

Otto and Max Vaclavek, Sept 2007, scrambling

 

Andrea Basque, Aug 2008, scrambling on start of Serpentine.

 

Add George Kotick, who died on the scrambling section of Serpintine Ridge in 1987, while on a climb with John Emminger

[goatboy]

I thought Otto and Max were climbing Colchuck?

[KaskadskyjKozak]

 

I have to agree - 6 accidents over 35 years is not a lot, especially considering the number of people up on that mountain every year.

[pindude]

I thought Otto and Max were climbing Colchuck?

 

Otto and Max were descending Colchuck Glacier in late September.

[toproper]

I have to agree - 6 accidents over 35 years is not a lot, especially considering the number of people up on that mountain every year.

 

6 fatalities; quite a few more accidents for sure. i wonder how dragontail compares with something like Forbidden?

[KaskadskyjKozak]

I have to agree - 6 accidents over 35 years is not a lot, especially considering the number of people up on that mountain every year.

 

6 fatalities; quite a few more accidents for sure. i wonder how dragontail compares with something like Forbidden?

 

I'd be interested in why so few seem to make it into ANAM each year... unless there are few? Seems WA state is usually represented by Rainier (the lion's share) plus a few scattered incidents here and there.

[Buckaroo]

I thought Otto and Max were climbing Colchuck?

 

you're probably correct, they just come up in a search for dragontail

[Fairweather]

I stopped reading ANAM ten years ago. Same sad tales. Nobody learns from them. It seems no tale, however terrible, can overcome the self-assuredness of the mountain climber.

[olyclimber]

LOL. And neither will you, since you stopped reading them. Or maybe you just know it all?

[Fairweather]

Huh??