JasonG

At least one of those chimneys is overhanging where it meets the summit ridge, plus it is completely enclosed, bombay style. I remember climbing up to the top of it and dropping rocks down the Diamond. They didn't touch anything for a long, long time. Such a wild area.

Talk about a poor decision!

But quantifying risk is Y incidence per X events. We have data on the accidents, but do we know the number of events that it took to produce those accidents? That is what @olyclimber is getting at I think.

The Beckey North Buttress route is a fine accomplishment in and of itself @dberdinka!!

I still think, all these years later, that the approach to Bear is perhaps the worst I've ever done (and I had a light kit, not the gear needed for the Diamond). And I've thrashed a lot of them!

OK, this is back on my list! I'd been on either end many times over the years, but I can see that I need to connect them.

So if you've probably done the NBC on Colchuck, perhaps a step up to the NEBC? Some others: whatever that gully is on Argonaut. There is an interesting couloir facing Hwy 20 off Whistler Peak, with a spicy mixed finish The couloir on SEWS It's in the book, but the Stuart Glacier Couloir is way up on my list Whitehorse is a slog, but the top is fun and a bit on the steep side More of a winterish climb if you want steep snow, but Whitechuck is fun With the right amount of snow, the North face ramp on Wilman's peak is fun. Or go up to East Wilman's. Steep snow to steep rock finish That the kind of stuff you are looking for @jared_j?

Less climbing gear means more alcohol and fishing gear! Or forget the Enchantments and drive to the Bugaboos and climb the best 5.4 on the planet.

This is my experience, and why I'm here and some of my partners are not. They didn't screw up any more than any of us who alpine climb, and I didn't learn anything from their deaths that I didn't already know.

The rangers are out and about on skis regularly and could give you an update on conditions @mzvarner if you call down to Longmire.

That ad is framed and on the wall of the MRA cabin in Longmire.

Character building with all that weight, I'm sure. Looks like a great adventure nonetheless!

Agreed, there is a time limit to editing that one of the admins has to lift, or a mod can make the changes @Bigtree

I have a 1991 Civic. And I bike to work on a rural, two lane, 50mph road. I suppose climbing/skiing are the least of my worries.

How do you define "risky activity"? All in life carries risk. Do you try and figure odds for driving (what kind of car do I buy??), using crosswalks, etc? And do those calculations change your behavior? Seems like a lot of work. What I'm pushing back against is the idea that doing some calculation makes you feel confident that you're being "safe". Maybe that's not what you're saying though.

a very, very good point @telemarker. We have been glossing over this angle.

Powder is addictive, way more so than climbing, at least in my experience. It is hard to pass up perfect conditions, and relatively easy to convince yourself that your route/aspect choice is safe under moderate or considerable hazard. And you commonly get away with it, leading to positive reinforcement of perhaps? bad decision making. A perfect storm.

Amen.

My experience is that the avalanche reports aren't all that accurate. I've been surprised several times when I shouldn't have been, if you had believed the report. Therein lies the problem. The data you're trying to use to come up with your risk calculation isn't at all precise, but you're treating it like a point value. I'm not talking about either extreme of the scale, which is often pretty accurate, but the middle ground where several avalanche professionals die each year. It's not a simple math equation you can stake your life on.

Thanks @W, powerful.

I probably should start backing up my raps. Thanks for the reminder. Loose rock has claimed two solid partners and almost got me this past year. At least a rap back-up could help me on the way down. And, I should add that I read ANAM and try and be safe about timing/routes/strategy/etc., but I've seen enough crazy stuff over the years (and had a number of close calls) that I have no illusions that I'm making alpine climbing really that safe.

But are any of you going to stop alpine climbing because of some back of the envelope calculation? I won't at least. The estimates of risk for any outing/route on any given day are wild SWAGs, at best, and quite unconvincing for me to give up something that has provided so much color to my life. Too many variables, too little data. For sure I've dialed back the "risk" or whatever over the years, but I think I'm mostly just deluding myself. Watching my old relatives linger and die over the years convinces me that no end is great, so I may as well enjoy it. My family wouldn't be that surprised, including my kids. I've had enough partners die and been involved in mountain rescue long enough that death isn't an uncommon topic in our house. I think the bigger issue is whether or not you believe this life is all there is. The spiritual dimension is much more compelling than statistics, at least to me. When it is your time, it is your time. Death is coming for us all.

Alex's was good, but predictable. I found this one on Dean a bit more complicated, as it sounds like he was: http://time.com/3891093/dean-potter-cedar-wright-climbing/

A good perspective @dberdinka, thanks. But I didn't get the sense the Marc cared terribly what anyone thought of his achievements? He seemed genuinely stoked on the adventure and wild positions he realized his abilities and approach could take him. Isn't it central to your premise that the praise pushed him farther than he would've pushed himself otherwise? Maybe I'm just a wimp, but even in my younger days fear was a powerful motivator that blocked all else out. Unless it was actually fun/reasonable for them (even if only in their minds), I can't see Marc or Alex or any of these guys pushing the boundaries as hard as they do. But maybe I'm just naive.