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bedellympian

head game and mindset after a scare?

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whatever the math says, dying while soloing a 5.6 is like dying while jerking off w/ a belt around your neck - sure, it was for a good cause and really just what you needed at the moment, but there sure as hell ain't much glory in it, and if your friends find you first, hopefully they'll tuck yer cock back in your pants and tell the cops it was all just a horrible accident :grin:

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did you know the majority of statistics are actually just made up?

 

Actually, only 37% of them are.

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the sign behind my desk says 98% but it's possible things are getting betterer out there :)

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This wouldn't be the first time I've been called a dick for knowing my statistics.

 

People do not like to see the numbers, that is fo sho. They're like hubcaps.

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dunno there pat, the law of large numbers suggests you wouldn't be able to keep track of every reason you've been called a dick before :grin:

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Given a survey size of 1 particular poster here and today's probability of my being a dick is 100%.

 

Today's sampling does not, however, affect my probability of being a dick tomorrow in any way.

 

Kinda weird. I'd a thought a software geek would know that basic sheeit by heart. It's an EZ google. Then the full aggro, complete with anti-bullying PSA and the required 'butt-hurt' reference. OK. Sounds serious!

 

Seduced by the allure of an innernut win, I reckon. Such passions destroy many a fine mind!

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Probably the best thing that ever happened to me regarding climbing safety was breaking my ankle in my third year of climbing. I was starting to think I was invincible (28 then). It made me realize I needed to never do that again...which made me a much safer climber.

 

I also had about 8 friends die alpine climbing, though never while I was with them. I also saw this very bad accident at smith:

 

http://www.websterart.com/html/smithfall.html

 

If you climb for a long time, you will see bad things. I've also seen bad things driving...but I keep doing that.

 

I have climbing buddies who have died of cancer. I'm just trying to have some fun along the way before something gets me. If it's climbing, so be it. I tried to give it up, and life was too boring.

 

Something is going to get you in the end. Minimize what risks you can, but get out there and live!

 

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holy-sheeit muslims, the tea-partiers DIDN'T shoot n' eat ole'sam!

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Tvash has a special coin. When he flips it, the probability of it being heads is 49%. Rob has a normal coin. Prior to this event, however, Rob has flipped his normal coin 99 times and gotten heads every time. Now, you are given the following dilemma. You must pick one of them to flip his coin for you.

If it’s tails you must jump off a cliff into a huge vat of boiling oil, while Ivan recites the Beowulf thing. If it’s heads, you live to post another day. Who do you choose to flip for you?

:lmao:

 

Does this mean I can't solo 5.6 anymore? As usually, stats confuse me.

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To the OP, Soloing is way more internal for me than roped climbing. If your head is not in the right place don't do it. When its right its right and when you think its not there is probably a good reason you think that way.

To the winner of the Argument, Winning an argument on the internet is liking winning the special Olympics. Atta boy!

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I'm living proof stats are bullshite... Statistically, I'm supposed to be dead 1000% of the time.
Yet, somehow, I manage to be alive around 27.23598257% of the time...

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To the OP, Soloing is way more internal for me than roped climbing. If your head is not in the right place don't do it. When its right its right and when you think its not there is probably a good reason you think that way.

To the winner of the Argument, Winning an argument on the internet is liking winning the special Olympics. Atta boy!

Same goes for gear leads. Or any risky endeavor. I know nowadays, I'm second guessing my abilities and if I should run it out. I'm sure that has a lot to do with rarely getting out and losing my head. So to speak.

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I've watched you do this with lots of folks when you've misread or don't understand something but won't admit it, Rob. It's a bit weird to go through the lengths you have to put it on display like this, but we've all got quirks. I'm sure my idea is clear to anyone else who cares, which is likely no one at this point, so I'm good.

 

Change 5% to 1% or 10% and do the x^N independent events in a row equation and let me know when you come up with equal results.

 

damn I missed out on a math problem.

I think that both of you are right it is just that you both are talking different cirumstances. predicting the future outcome over a set number of experiments (Pat) vs the prob of one event (rob)

 

 

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Tvash: the door is black.

Rob: But the roof is red!

Tvash: No, idiot, the door is black.

R: Roof is red yadda yadda yadda

T: Beebly bobbly bum!

R: Kibbly Kobbly Kum!

Zzzzzz.

 

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If accidents and tragedies don't rattle your cage and make you think, then you need a brain, like the straw man, and a heart, like the tin man.

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Confuse what you can of the ending

And revise your despise so impending

'Cause I soak on the wrath

That you didn't quite mask

I'm getting it clearly through alternate paths

Or mixed in with the signal you're sending

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But who can unlearn all the facts that I've learned

As I sat in their chairs and my synapses burned

And the torture of chalk dust collects on my tongue

Thoughts follow my vision and dance in the sun

All my vasoconstrictors they come slowly undone

Can't this wait 'til I'm old

Can't I live while I'm young?

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Thanks for the 2cents guys... I think all those cents add up to at least 50c which means we can get tvash and rob their own quarters to flip by themselves until they have solved all our real problems with mathematical models.

 

But seriously, I appreciate ALL the comments, at the very least they either made me chuckle or mirrored a thought I'd already had which is good to see. Probably won't be soloing in the immediate future, but I've been having a good time cragging and will hopefully get out and enjoy myself this weekend in the mountains.

 

I feel like the odds haven't changed and I may as well go if I feel like it will be fun... hopefully I don't shat my long johns :)

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I took a lead fall a few years back (from an easy climb I've lead previously). I fell 25 ft to the ground, and hit my head on a nearby rock. Helmet saved my dumbass. I was damn lucky that I walked out of the ER just a few hours later with a mild separation in my shoulder, a heavily concussed head, and several bruises. While I got back on the horse afterward, I've become more hesitant. It also does not help that I don't get out as much as I used to, because work/life got busier, and now I'm a father.

 

As someone already pointed out, it's a mental game in the end. And everyone deals with it in their own way. The first climb I did as a new father was the South side on Mt Hood. Even on that benign route, which also I've done several times before, I was sweating coming down the Old Chute :shock: .

 

Since we're talking stats and probabilities, it's time to dust up some classics.

 

Q: How can you reduce the chance of seeing a bomb in the plane you're flying in?

A: Carry one yourselves. Because the chance of two bombs in the same plane is much smaller than the chance of just one of them!

 

And, of course, the "There's still a chance!" scene from Dumb and Dumber:

[video:youtube]KX5jNnDMfxA

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Didn't Largo say something like "Anyone can fall at any time"?

 

Seems prudent to rope up for 5th class rock if you can get gear but hey, I've got dependents.

 

It's interesting to see that pretty much all climbers have this sort of soul searching if they stick with it long enough. As Mark said, you will see friends maimed and killed if you climb long enough. If those sorts of experiences don't change your approach/outlook, something's wrong.

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