I'm callin' it...

[Fairweather]

George W Bush: 320 electoral votes.

 

While the first debate was a disaster, Bush's failure to botch the second debate and his likely victory in tonight's contest now leave me confident he will win in November.

 

Additionally, the violence-free elections in Afghanistan, the possible unravelling of the Falluja insurgency, the Mahdi army surrendering (some of) their weapons, the uncovering of more (of Saddam's) mass graves in Kurdish areas, the landslide victory of our Australian ally, and John Kerry's ongoing demonstrable contempt for the process spell the end for his plans.

 

A recent look at the electoral map reveals that Kerry would have to have many, many things go his way for a victory.

 

Barring some last minute mud....and it would have to be really dirty mud....Bush will win. I'm predicting; by a lot.

 

 

All of this IMHO, of course.

[Billygoat]

bummer

[cracked]

Fuckin' neocons! If Bush wins it'll be because he cheated! He was wired in the debates! There's a conspiracy! I feel violated! The goverment is coming to get us! Bush is a dictator! Where's my tinfoil helmet and soma???

[scott_harpell]

I still think it could go either way. If you look at the marginally Kerry and marginally Bush, there are many. It is George's race to loose though and I doubt anything will come up to wreck the train. With all the false allegations ala Rather, I don't think they would be taken seriously anyways. So mabe I do agree with you. hahaha

[Dechristo]

the possible unravelling of the Falluja insurgency

 

Speaking of Fallujah, I heard that Clinton was asked recently of his thoughts concerning Fallujah. His reply: "I prefer it standing up".

 

 

[cracked]

[cracked]

This was posted on TGR, and it's too good to pass up.

 

Bush "UNLEASH THE ARMIES OF COMPASSION AND THEIR TACTICAL NUKES!"

Kerry "Did I mention I love minorities?"

Bush "You suck"

Kerry "I'll adress you point in a moment but I'd just like to say: You are a liar! You suck!"

Moderator "Kerry, You are a liar aren't you?"

Kerry "No way! and CHENEY'S DAUGHTER IS GAY!!"

Moderator "Umm.... Ok.... Mr. President?"

Bush "I'll address that in a moment but let me just say: Liar! You are a lying Commie!"

Kerry "I'll bring the troops home and deploy them to your streetcorners!"

Bush "Keep the troops on Iraqi street corners! The Border Patrol and FBI will opress you just fine!"

Kerry "Out of Iraq!"

Bush "He'll kill us all!"

Kerry "Fascist Meanie!"

Moderator: "But what about the money problem?"

Bush "What money problem?

Kerry "I'll solve the money problem that is Bush's fault!"

Moderator "How?"

Kerry: "I'm glad you asked and I'll address that in a moment but first I'll just say Word for Word Rhetoric from the last two debates!"

Bush: "Word for Word Rhetoric from the last two debates!"

 

 

I was waiting for

Moderator: "Your parties have some good politicians so why are you asshats the candidates?"

[willstrickland]

George W Bush: 320 electoral votes.

 

Barring some last minute mud....and it would have to be really dirty mud....Bush will win. I'm predicting; by a lot. All of this IMHO, of course.

 

Of course. And I will make my own prediction. First note that all the incumbents in recent history who have been reelected have done so in virtual landslides. If it's close, the incumbent usually loses. Further, Kerry won 3/3 debates (if you don't believe he won tonight, wait until the press gets done showing the "I don't worry about Osama" Bush lies...polls of indies also show Kerry winning #3 about 60/40).

 

There is alot of evidence that Dem voter registration in swing states has far outpaced GOP registration. Kerry has the momentum. The polls show a virtual deadlock, but two things to consider: These polls aren't sampling the new registrants (lots more Dems) and these polls aren't sampling cell phone users.

 

My prediction:

 

Kerry 306, Bush 232

 

Biggest surprise: Kerry takes Nevada.

After party: Lawsuits in at least 3 states, most likely FL, OH, and WI.

[Skeezix]

I'm voting for Kerry.

[EWolfe]

George W Bush: 320 electoral votes.

 

Barring some last minute mud....and it would have to be really dirty mud....Bush will win. I'm predicting; by a lot. All of this IMHO, of course.

 

Of course. And I will make my own prediction. First note that all the incumbents in recent history who have been reelected have done so in virtual landslides. If it's close, the incumbent usually loses. Further, Kerry won 3/3 debates (if you don't believe he won tonight, wait until the press gets done showing the "I don't worry about Osama" Bush lies...polls of indies also show Kerry winning #3 about 60/40).

 

There is alot of evidence that Dem voter registration in swing states has far outpaced GOP registration. Kerry has the momentum. The polls show a virtual deadlock, but two things to consider: These polls aren't sampling the new registrants (lots more Dems) and these polls aren't sampling cell phone users.

 

My prediction:

 

Kerry 306, Bush 232

 

Biggest surprise: Kerry takes Nevada.

After party: Lawsuits in at least 3 states, most likely FL, OH, and WI.

 

I am not so sure, but I like the way you think, Will.

 

Here's hoping.

[AlpineK]

I'm not sure what kind of crack you smoke Fairweather. By general consensus Kerry won the first two debates, and I believe, like Mr E, that he'll have won this one.

 

I think the election will be real close. I'm not sure who will win, but I'm hoping that new voters will push things towards Kerry.

[Roger]

George W Bush: 320 electoral votes.

 

While the first debate was a disaster, Bush's failure to botch the second debate and his likely victory in tonight's contest now leave me confident he will win in November.

 

[slothrop]

Bush could get caught snorting blow off his daughter's inebriated naked ass and Fairweather would still call the election in his favor.

[scott_harpell]

Biggest surprise: Kerry takes Nevada.

 

He curently has a 1% lead in nevada, but is losing electorally:

 

Kerry 228 Bush 284

[fenderfour]

I don't htink Bush has a chance this year. There has been a major get out the vote effort, and it hasn't been backed by the conservatives.

 

All of the polls show the opinions of "likely voters", not those of the few million new registered voters. These new voters are the slackers that the fatass Michael Moore (and others) have been recruiting. The polls have never taken their opinion into account. Quite frankly, if you're not going to vote, your opinion doesn't matter.

 

Now if we can only convince them to follow through and vote...

[Doug]

I would like to hope that Bush doesn't have a chance. You mention that the get out the vote push hasn't been backed by the conservatives. It seems to me there was some recent controversy regarding churches using their recources to back a get out the vote initiative.

 

That being said, I may be biased but while both parties have had their share of inaccuracies, Bush has made himself look absolutely foolish.

 

In the days following 9/11 when he appeard to be speaking from the heart, Bush actually came a cross as a pretty effective leader. However, when he's spouting the rhetoric of the machine that put him in office, it's pretty apparent that he has no idea what the fuck he's talking about.

[Ricardo_Montalban]

Biggest surprise: Kerry takes Nevada.

 

He curently has a 1% lead in nevada, but is losing electorally:

 

Kerry 228 Bush 284

 

let's hope this bullshit gets resolved.

[iain]

let's hope this bullshit gets resolved.

I know! Registering to read the mercury news IS bullshit.

[slothrop]

Ah, the usual cypherpunks:cypherpunks username-password combo saves the day! Not surprising for a Silicon Valley newspaper's website...

[iain]

nerds in the hizzouse

[chelle]

I would like to hope that Bush doesn't have a chance. You mention that the get out the vote push hasn't been backed by the conservatives. It seems to me there was some recent controversy regarding churches using their recources to back a get out the vote initiative.

 

Many black church leaders in FL in poor areas were planning to bus parishoners to early polling locations after Sunday services to help with transportation and so people would not have to arrage time off work. The conservatives in charge of the election offices decided not to keep the polling places open on Sundays. Who's trying to stack the deck now. One is the same county where 27,000 votes were thrown out last time, 47% of them from black democratic voters.

 

I hope Kerry kicks ass in FL. From yesterday's WA Post...

 

"In Duval County, 31,155 black voters had been added to the rolls by the end of last week. That is more than the total number of ballots nullified here four years ago, in a race that George W. Bush won by 537 votes."

[terrible_ted]

If you aren't paying attention to Colorado, then you really have no sense of the legal quagmire the upcoming election's results may sink into.

[chelle]

Why don't you enlighten us on the situation in CO then?

[b-rock]

On the same ballot, CO has a vote on how their state's electoral votes are distributed - either winner-take-all as it is now, or proportionally (they'd be the only state to do this).

 

This is only one of the potential 'legal quagmires', given the recent reports of discarded new registrations in various states and a closer eye on all the weird shit that went on in N Florida four years ago.

[cj001f]

On the same ballot, CO has a vote on how their state's electoral votes are distributed - either winner-take-all as it is now, or proportionally (they'd be the only state to do this).

Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes; Nebraska is proportional, Maine awards 2 to the winner of the state and 1 each to the winner of each congressional district.