Off_White Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Let me tell you! Our bennies are on the chopping block. Retirement is being pared and free health care culled. Now, there are those that abuse the medical system in order to get over and get disability and they are ruining it for those that actually need it. Same goes to PTSD. When you have soccer moms in California claiming PTSD after watching 9/11 on TV, it becomes a joke really quickly. In my line of work, sports medicine type injuries are extremely commonplace as are back issues. Now, the government wants us to pay a large copay to subsidize costs. As fucked up as my body is, that shit could bankrupt me! LOL So, you see, the military is a mirror image of the problems in the Nation's economy. Our decline has just been accelerating exponentially, while the Nation's economy just continues its gradually accelerating decline. Perhaps the new Tea Party folks in congress are just trying to protect you from Socialism? I know, its not funny, but if you get one of the cush military jobs, not the hardcore shit you volunteered for, one could put in their 20 years and retire at 38 with a pension and health insurance for life. Private industry has pretty much done away with any working class path that leads to that sort of pot of gold, its not too surprising that now they're coming for your benefits. Workers or soldiers are consumables, and if they're no longer productive, its hardly profitable to keep them around now, is it? I'm sorry to hear you got shot again and that you've got other physical issues. You chose a tough road, but your willingness to walk your talk is admirable. I hope you get the benefits you've clearly earned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayB Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 Reverse thread drift: Country Yield Change Yield High Spread Spread High Germany 2.67 -0.16 0 Ptgal 13.31 +0.39 Y 10.64 Y Ireland 13.34 +0.43 Y 10.67 Y Greece 17.02 +0.16 14.35 Spain 5.96 +0.28 Y 3.29 Y Italy 5.61 +0.34 Y 2.94 Y Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billcoe Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Yield drift? Are you thinking 20 year US T-bill interest rates will be going up Jayb? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayB Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 Think the distribution of probabilities clusters around "up" pretty strongly in the long term, but if things are scary in Europe that will probably drive down the yield on all US government debt in the near term. How about you? Seems like this is a useful illustration of a few points that get lost in discussions of economics and finance. 1)Things that can't go on for ever, don't. 2)Debts that can't be repaid, won't. In this case the thing that couldn't go on forever was an endless expansion of entitlements beyond the society's capacity to pay them, and the debts that can't be repaid are those that were run up to cover the gap between production and consumption. Don't think we're immune to starring in a blockbuster sequel to what's going on in the Eurozone. Eventually we'll hit the real debt limit, which is when no one will loan you money anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billcoe Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 How about you? As I publicly stated on an earlier "CC.com thread, I have bet the farm on interest rates rising. China was divesting it's US T-bill holdings and the US would have to increase the rate to attract new $. It seemed clear until June 17th that this was a big money maker about to happen. Maybe the biggest no brainer thing I've seen in my lifetime. As you say above, when no one will loan you money anymore. Looks like ti was about to pop and I bet on it. Yet on that date, China suddenly reversed their policy of shedding US debt which they had initiated back on October and which they had accelerated through May to include some huge sales and reduction in US debt, and once again became a net buyer of it -inexplicably jumping into the Treasury auctions once again and becoming a buyer. Thus, I don't know if this was the result of a US government promise under the table (ie, "Perdicaris alive or Raisuli dead!"), or that the Chinese got caught trying to Fu*k us over in a 9/11 style attack based on the economy like the 2008 Pentagon report suggests they were doing and the US played some unknown diplomatic card, or if it represents an actual long term correction of Chinese internal political and economic thinking. Regardless, I'm staying the interest rate guessing game course for at least a year and expect them to rise. I was thinking this was at least a 2 year issue, but am losing self-confidence now. If I screwed the pooch and the farm becomes worthless, it was still buttressed with some earlier actual gold purchases (averaged in the high $300 an ounce range) and some energy sector funds for balance. Furthermore, I screwed up and stuck a bunch of $ into a Yuan denominated US insured savings account. Oh, it's gone up, but if I'd spread it in a market basket of Se Asian countries, I'd be laughing on the way to the bank now. Look at the Aussie dollar which has kicked ass! vs the US dollar to see this effect. The market basket would have included the Aussie dollar and it would have spread it out, but I went for what I perceived as the sure thing and it cost me. I'm up and it's good, the Yuan is appreciating, but not as much. Next year I think real estate will be worth a look again. You? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 1)Things that can't go on for ever, don't. 2)Debts that can't be repaid, won't. That's the bottom line w/Greece. The Euros are soon going to have to come to the conclusion that the pain is going to be shared and the German and Swiss banks are going to take a haircut on this one. The Germans are particularly pissed they are propping up Greece when, really, they are propping up German banks. The can has been kicked down the road only for a couple months. Once back from the August break I think a reality is going to settle in on the finance ministers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Americans are such experts at European financial and economic policy. We should offer our advice to them formally! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prole Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 1)Things that can't go on for ever, don't. 2)Debts that can't be repaid, won't. That's the bottom line w/Greece. The Euros are soon going to have to come to the conclusion that the pain is going to be shared and the German and Swiss banks are going to take a haircut on this one. The Germans are particularly pissed they are propping up Greece when, really, they are propping up German banks. The can has been kicked down the road only for a couple months. Once back from the August break I think a reality is going to settle in on the finance ministers. LOL, I thought this was about fat-cat toll-booth operators and bus drivers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prole Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 [video:youtube] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tvashtarkatena Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 (edited) Americans are such experts at European financial and economic policy. We should offer our advice to them formally! We're the best at everything. Anyone who doesn't think so is anti-American. We've got the best diet, the fittest population, the best energy policy, the lowest greenhouse gas emissions per capita, the best foreign policy, and unbeaten and unbeatable military, the happiest, most worry free people, we produce the best manufactured goods, the lowest incarceration rate, the best health care, the lowest drug use, and our kids are as smart as they come because we've got the best education. Go ahead, pick your measure. We've got it figured out. Why? 40 years of conservative policies, that's why. Exactly what the Founders intended. Edited July 14, 2011 by tvashtarkatena Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 We've got it figured out. Why? 40 years of conservative policies, that's why. Exactly what the Founders intended. And any faults were obviously caused by Democratic muddling, which has prevented the full actualization of a glorious conservative nation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ivan Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 so does germany get to foreclose on the parathenon? rename it the glockenspeil and keep the gate till they get the nut back? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Conway Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 so does germany get to foreclose on the parathenon? rename it the glockenspeil and keep the gate till they get the nut back? I'm waiting for another quality Jay_B rant about how crappy germany is with the usual cherry picked statistics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayB Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 Nope - just more math! The above table assumes a doubling of real income over the duration of employment, but doesn't account for pension spiking, so it actually understates the amount of salary that would need to be set aside to cover pension benefits. Nor does it account for the cost of retiree health benefits. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/12/business/central-falls-ri-faces-bankruptcy-over-pension-promises.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Conway Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Meanwhile Jay's income depends on growth as a percentage of GDP even less realistic! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayB Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 1)Things that can't go on for ever, don't. 2)Debts that can't be repaid, won't. That's the bottom line w/Greece. The Euros are soon going to have to come to the conclusion that the pain is going to be shared and the German and Swiss banks are going to take a haircut on this one. The Germans are particularly pissed they are propping up Greece when, really, they are propping up German banks. The can has been kicked down the road only for a couple months. Once back from the August break I think a reality is going to settle in on the finance ministers. 1st option is immediate default. 2nd option is going all-in and making every penny of debt issued in the EU a "Eurobond," which will eventually allow the insolvent nations in Euroland to bring down the whole EU. Exponentially expanding entitlement obligations on top of a rapidly inverting demographic pyramid = default unless per-capita output grows enough to cover the difference between what the society in question actually produces and what it consumes. Greece, EU, or Central Falls, RI - the math is the same everywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Conway Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 jay... you are full of shit. admit it. you don't really know much about the EU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prole Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Exponentially expanding entitlement obligations on top of a rapidly inverting demographic pyramid = default unless per-capita output grows enough to cover the difference between what the society in question actually produces and what it consumes. Greece, EU, or Central Falls, RI - the math is the same everywhere. Damn, da ho damn global capitalist system done got isself in uh big ol' pickle! Whut tha hell y'all gon' do about it dis time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billcoe Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 jay... you are full of shit. admit it. you don't really know much about the EU This is what people say...(ie attack the person, not the idea) when they are too stupid to come up with a rational argument and too proud to admit that they themselves are full of shit. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KaskadskyjKozak Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 jay... you are full of shit. admit it. you don't really know much about the EU This is what people say...(ie attack the person, not the idea) when they are too stupid to come up with a rational argument and too proud to admit that they themselves are full of shit. LOL Amazingly Jay keeps trying and is always civil, while the content-free fucktard-spew keeps flowing: "you are dumb", "you are full of shit". Wow! Convincing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Conway Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 This is what people say...(ie attack the person, not the idea) when they are too stupid to come up with a rational argument and too proud to admit that they themselves are full of shit. LOL Amazingly Jay keeps trying and is always civil, while the content-free fucktard-spew keeps flowing: "you are dumb", "you are full of shit". Wow! Convincing! You mean I should throw up some graphs and cherry pick some numbers so content free fucktards like you and bill get fooled? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 This is what people say...(ie attack the person, not the idea) when they are too stupid to come up with a rational argument and too proud to admit that they themselves are full of shit. LOL L O L ! ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Conway Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Stupid people type lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Conway Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Never mind, back o the hand waving Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayB Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 Exponentially expanding entitlement obligations on top of a rapidly inverting demographic pyramid = default unless per-capita output grows enough to cover the difference between what the society in question actually produces and what it consumes. Greece, EU, or Central Falls, RI - the math is the same everywhere. Damn, da ho damn global capitalist system done got isself in uh big ol' pickle! Whut tha hell y'all gon' do about it dis time? Governments won't pay for things that can't be paid for, and will ultimately have to default by inflation, benefit cuts, or both. Insolvent basket cases will opt for default primarily by inflation, non-basket cases lean more towards benefit cuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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