War with Iran office pool

[JosephH]

All the Persians I've had first-hand experiences with have been very bright and extremely well-educated. And I suspect they will deploy some of their best and brightest to their new weapons systems. They now possess about 30 TOR M1's and are acquiring S-3/400 to use with them in a well-integrated air defense system that the Israelis will pay a price to defeat. There's a video out on you tube of a three-missile strike on a drone where one missile hits the exhaust, the next the body debris and the third the ejection seat - pow, pow, pow.

 

These are also highly automated systems both individually and as an integrated whole so I'm guessing the Iranian's won't have a long spin-up time. Add to that Chinese hypersonic surface to surface missles and cavitating torpedoes and no one is going to get away from an engagement with them clean unless they screw up in a lot of ways I don't think they will.

 

Overestimating the Iraqis was one thing, underestimating the Iranians is another, and dangerous. That doesn't mean the Israelis won't attack, it simply means they'll know upfront the costs will be likely be quite high, will have to limit their targeting more than they'd like, and both they and the U.S. will have to worry a long time about what form a counterstrike will take, because one will be in the offing and the Persians will not forget just who's GBU-28s were raining down on them.

[RuMR]

yeah...well, syria's vaunted state of the art soviet system didn't fare too well recently, did it??

[tvashtarkatena]

Israel is like that 5'2" red-headed irishman in the bar. Ask him how the weather is and POW!

 

Or just ask that nervous looking 4'10" troll about his waistline and see what happens.

[RuMR]

whutup widya, fattie?? Why don't you get on the fat bandwagon with me, tubs?

[tvashtarkatena]

whutup widya, fattie?? Why don't you get on the fat bandwagon with me, tubs?

 

After that trip I just came back from, I'm already there, Mr. Butterman.

[RuMR]

[prole]

I think we can expect the Americans to pull the leash a little considering how Israel's posturing is already affecting a tottering world economy

[Clavote]

All the Persians I've had first-hand experiences with have been very bright and extremely well-educated. And I suspect they will deploy some of their best and brightest to their new weapons systems. They now possess about 30 TOR M1's and are acquiring S-3/400 to use with them in a well-integrated air defense system that the Israelis will pay a price to defeat. There's a video out on you tube of a three-missile strike on a drone where one missile hits the exhaust, the next the body debris and the third the ejection seat - pow, pow, pow.

 

These are also highly automated systems both individually and as an integrated whole so I'm guessing the Iranian's won't have a long spin-up time. Add to that Chinese hypersonic surface to surface missles and cavitating torpedoes and no one is going to get away from an engagement with them clean unless they screw up in a lot of ways I don't think they will.

 

Overestimating the Iraqis was one thing, underestimating the Iranians is another, and dangerous. That doesn't mean the Israelis won't attack, it simply means they'll know upfront the costs will be likely be quite high, will have to limit their targeting more than they'd like, and both they and the U.S. will have to worry a long time about what form a counterstrike will take, because one will be in the offing and the Persians will not forget just who's GBU-28s were raining down on them.

 

War again, awesome!

 

I'm going to recommend we all get some of these Bofors Bonus 155

shells. These are the shit! Anything Bofors makes is gonna kill someone dead.

 

I love the way they say "cost effective" the price of killing someone has never been lower!

 

[billcoe]

I call Mid to late October, it meshes with the Election date quite nicely.

 

Nevermind, I don't think the 6th graders running our country can wait more or think further ahead than 10 min. October, although logical, is too far away - they can't wait that long.

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Plot thickens. Who called it?

 

Link to UK Telegraph artical

 

 

"Dutch withdraw spy from Iran because of 'impending US attack'

The Dutch intelligence service has pulled an agent out of an "ultra-secret operation" spying on Iran's military industry because spymasters in Netherlands believe a United States air attack was imminent.

 

 

By Bruno Waterfield in Brussels

Last Updated: 9:24AM BST 01 Sep 2008

 

According to reports in the newspaper De Telegraaf, the country's intelligence service, the AIVD, has stopped an espionage operation aimed at infiltration and sabotage of the weapons industry in Iran.

 

"The operation, described as extremely successful, was halted recently in connection with plans for an impending US air attack on Iran," said the report.

 

"Targets would also be bombed which were connected with the Dutch espionage action."

 

"Well placed" sources told the paper that a top agent had been recalled recently "because the US was thought to be making a decision within weeks to attack Iran with unmanned aircraft".

 

"Information from the AIVD operation has in recent years been shared with the American CIA secret service."

 

Brig Gen Seyyed Massoud Jazayeri, deputy chief of the Iranian armed forces, warned at the weekend that military attacks against Iran would trigger a Third World War.

 

"The exorbitant demands of the US leaders and the global Zionism which have created the current situation in Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan and Caucasus are gradually directing the world to the edge of the cliff," he said.

 

The US has refused to rule out a military attack against Iran if its government continues to enrich uranium as part of its civilian nuclear programme, which the West suspects has the clandestine objective of developing atomic weapons.

 

Iran has warned it would close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Gulf and a major oil shipping route, if it is attacked.

 

On Friday, the Israel newspaper Ma'ariv reported that Israel has stepped up preparations for a contingency plan to attack Iran, should diplomatic efforts, via the United Nations, fail to derail Tehran's suspected nuclear weapons programme."

 

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There is a slight chance, perhaps less than 10%, this is only public propaganda designed to push Iran into compliance and abandonment of their Nuclear program...slight, very slight. The question I would raise is: "Why would the Dutch, if they really had such a successful surveillance program" break it off, fold up their tent and then announce it (wide span, multi-country broadcast) so publicly, it to the world? In doing so, they would most likely lose what they had worked so hard to have gained. It also pre-announces to the enemy our intentions. Why do that?

 

Questions with layers of more questions and shadows underneath those questions.

 

 

 

[akhalteke]

Right. 10% poss. of propaganda and 89.999% chance of a conspiracy theorist/ loud-mouthed attention whore trying to make a name for himself.

[Stefan]

I don't understand. The Netherlands have their own espionage service? WTF?

[sobo]

And I thought they were such a peaceful people...

[billcoe]

Looks like I miss-called the date for this one. (thankfully) Don't have time to get all these in and to retrofit their planes for the distance? Unless the US jumps on it instead with crusie missile support (still a strong possibility).

linky

 

"Israel slated to buy US smart bombs

By YAAKOV KATZ

 

 

The US Department of Defense has notified Congress of a potential sale to Israel of 1,000 smart bombs capable of penetrating underground bunkers, which would likely be used in the event of a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. The notification to Congress was made over the weekend by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, the branch of the Pentagon responsible for evaluating foreign military sales. Congress has 30 days to object to the deal.

 

The deal is valued at $77 million and the principal contractor would be Boeing Integrated Defense Systems. The bomb Israel wants is the GBU-39, developed in recent years by the US as a small-diameter bomb for low-cost, high-precision and low-collateral damage strikes. Israel has also asked for 150 mounting carriages, 30 guided test vehicles and two instructors to train the air force in loading the bombs on its aircraft. The GPS-guided GBU-39 is said to be one of the most accurate bombs in the world. The 113 kg. bomb has the same penetration capabilities as a normal 900 kg. bomb, although it has only 22.7 kg. of explosives. At just 1.75 meters long, its small size increases the number of bombs an aircraft can carry and the number of targets it can attack in a sortie. Tests conducted in the US have proven that the bomb is capable of penetrating at least 90 cm. of steel-reinforced concrete. The GBU-39 can be used in adverse weather conditions and has a standoff range of more than 110 km. due to pop-out wings.

 

In its recommendation to Congress, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency wrote that Israel's strategic position was "vital to the US national interests to assist Israel to develop and maintain a strong and ready self-defense capability. This proposed sale is consistent with those objectives," the statement read. The agency's announcement came amid growing concern that the Pentagon was not willing to sell Israel advanced military platforms such as bunker-buster missiles in an effort to dissuade Jerusalem from attacking Iran's nuclear facilities.

 

Bunker-buster missiles would be a fundamental component of an air strike against Iran, since many of the nuclear facilities, such as the Natanz uranium enrichment complex, have been built in underground, heavily fortified bunkers. During the Second Lebanon War, Israel reportedly received an emergency shipment of bunker-buster missiles from the US to use against underground Hizbullah facilities. Yiftah Shapir, from the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said the GBU-39 is one of the most advanced in the world and would improve Israel's standoff fire capabilities. "The bomb is extremely accurate," he said. "All you have to do is punch in the coordinates, fire and forget." He said they could be used to attack Iranian underground facilities like Natanz but that they could only penetrate a few meters. "Hundreds of these would have to be used in an attack on Natanz for it to be successful," Shapir said."

 

[joblo7]

i would make sense for reps to start the war before the election, cause they would win.........

tha thing is all in place anyway, they been preparing for 1 1/2 yrs...

iran has had nukes for years but now would be a great time to get offended.....

 

i had sources tell me we (us fuckers) were going in last year..

 

in times of "war", the same stupid fucks tha voted for W, will be back to guide us again to more human lowest common denom shiite...

[billcoe]

I've seen lots of timeframes bandied about. I think the original one by the Israelis was 2 years. The US said Iran was and then changed their mind wasn't a threat. The Iranians are believed to possess the Chinese shore to ship missile that is believed to be able to sink an Aircraft Carrier. I suspect that the typical US Navy muscle flexing may not be one of the tools in the diplomatic box this go-round. I suspect that China would be very happy to see how their missiles perform against US Carrier groups in a no-fault, no PRC exposure manner. We can still see how they like US Submarines.

 

Todays news (It's only April Fools day in the US BTW:

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http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1238562879456&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

 

Apr 1, 2009 14:02 | Updated Apr 1, 2009 16:09

PM: We may be forced to attack Iran

By JPOST.COM STAFF

 

 

The primary imperative for the United States and President Barack Obama is to put an end to Iran's nuclear race, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said before his swearing-in Tuesday, adding that if the US failed to do so Israel might be forced to resort to a military strike on the Islamic Republic's nuclear installations.

 

"The Obama presidency has two great missions: fixing the economy, and preventing Iran from gaining nuclear weapons," Netanyahu told The Atlantic. The Iranian drive for a nuclear weapon was a "hinge of history," he said, emphasizing that all of "Western civilization" was responsible for preventing an Iranian bomb.

 

"You don't want a messianic apocalyptic cult controlling atomic bombs," Netanyahu said of the Iranian regime. "When the wide-eyed believer gets hold of the reins of power and the weapons of mass death, then the entire world should start worrying, and that is what is happening in Iran."

 

Netanyahu suggested that Israeli preemptive strikes against perceived threats were the result of the Jewish people learning from a long history of grappling against those who threatened their collective existence. He cited Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's repeated calls to "wipe Israel off the map," as well as a recent remark by the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to the effect that Israel was a "cancerous tumor."

 

 

However, despite Iran's singling-out of Israel, he said, the rest of the world would be well advised to take the threat emanating from Teheran seriously. He voiced support for Obama's strategy of engaging Iran in dialogue, as long as the negotiations worked swiftly to convince Iran to relinquish its nuclear program.

 

"How you achieve this goal is less important than achieving it," he said, although he was not optimistic regarding the chances that dialogue could persuade Iran to reconsider its interests. Nevertheless, he said, economic sanctions could still make a difference. "I think the Iranian economy is very weak, which makes Iran susceptible to sanctions that can be ratcheted up by a variety of means," he said.

 

Iran's leadership, Netanyahu added, was not immune to pressure, but fanatic elements made it extremely dangerous to risk relying on economic sanctions alone.

 

"Iran is a composite leadership, but in that composite leadership there are elements of wide-eyed fanaticism that do not exist right now in any other would-be nuclear power in the world. That's what makes them so dangerous," he said. "Since the dawn of the nuclear age, we have not had a fanatic regime that might put its zealotry above its self-interest. People say that they'll behave like any other nuclear power. Can you take the risk? Can you assume that?"

 

Netanyahu cited Teheran's tactics during its protracted war with Iraq in the 1980s as evidence of irrational behavior on the part of Iran. "[They] wasted over a million lives without batting an eyelash," he said. "It didn't sear a terrible wound into the Iranian consciousness. It wasn't Britain after World War I, lapsing into pacifism because of the great tragedy of a loss of a generation. You see nothing of the kind."

"

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Info on Chinas missile system that will take out a US Carrier group, this was just printed yesterday, but rumors have been swirling for some time. Now it's more "official" coming off the US Naval Institute site.

 

https://www.usni.org/forthemedia/ChineseKillWeapon.asp

 

Report: Chinese Develop Special "Kill Weapon" to Destroy U.S. Aircraft Carriers

 

Advanced missile poses substantial new threat for U.S. Navy

 

 

U. S. Naval Institute

March 31, 2009

 

 

With tensions already rising due to the Chinese navy becoming more aggressive in asserting its territorial claims in the South China Sea, the U.S. Navy seems to have yet another reason to be deeply concerned.

 

After years of conjecture, details have begun to emerge of a "kill weapon" developed by the Chinese to target and destroy U.S. aircraft carriers.

 

First posted on a Chinese blog viewed as credible by military analysts and then translated by the naval affairs blog Information Dissemination, a recent report provides a description of an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) that can strike carriers and other U.S. vessels at a range of 2000km.

 

The range of the modified Dong Feng 21 missile is significant in that it covers the areas that are likely hot zones for future confrontations between U.S. and Chinese surface forces.

 

The size of the missile enables it to carry a warhead big enough to inflict significant damage on a large vessel, providing the Chinese the capability of destroying a U.S. supercarrier in one strike.

 

Because the missile employs a complex guidance system, low radar signature and a maneuverability that makes its flight path unpredictable, the odds that it can evade tracking systems to reach its target are increased. It is estimated that the missile can travel at mach 10 and reach its maximum range of 2000km in less than 12 minutes.

 

Supporting the missile is a network of satellites, radar and unmanned aerial vehicles that can locate U.S. ships and then guide the weapon, enabling it to hit moving targets.

 

 

While the ASBM has been a topic of discussion within national defense circles for quite some time, the fact that information is now coming from Chinese sources indicates that the weapon system is operational. The Chinese rarely mention weapons projects unless they are well beyond the test stages.

 

If operational as is believed, the system marks the first time a ballistic missile has been successfully developed to attack vessels at sea. Ships currently have no defense against a ballistic missile attack.

 

Along with the Chinese naval build-up, U.S. Navy officials appear to view the development of the anti-ship ballistic missile as a tangible threat.

 

After spending the last decade placing an emphasis on building a fleet that could operate in shallow waters near coastlines, the U.S. Navy seems to have quickly changed its strategy over the past several months to focus on improving the capabilities of its deep sea fleet and developing anti-ballistic defenses.

 

As analyst Raymond Pritchett notes in a post on the U.S. Naval Institute blog:

 

"The Navy's reaction is telling, because it essentially equals a radical change in direction based on information that has created a panic inside the bubble. For a major military service to panic due to a new weapon system, clearly a mission kill weapon system, either suggests the threat is legitimate or the leadership of the Navy is legitimately unqualified. There really aren't many gray spaces in evaluating the reaction by the Navy…the data tends to support the legitimacy of the threat."

 

In recent years, China has been expanding its navy to presumably better exert itself in disputed maritime regions. A recent show of strength in early March led to a confrontation with an unarmed U.S. ship in international waters."

 

 

Seen below in this artists rendition: