Jim Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 October 15, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows George W. Bush with 213 Electoral Votes and John Kerry with 194. There are now ten states with 131 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category. Today's change results from moving Florida back to Toss-Up status. While the President has been ahead every day in our Florida Tracking Poll, his lead has been below the five-point level for several days. Generally speaking, we consider a state in the Toss-Up category unless one candidate leads by at least five points. Over the past week, John Kerry gained back twenty-five Electoral Votes as New Jersey and Maryland moved back to "Leans Kerry" status. Both of these states were expected to be in the Democratic column when the campaign began. In the week leading up to the first debate, Kerry's lead declined in both states and they were shifted to our Toss-Up column. However, Kerry has never trailed in either state. Over the past two weeks, Kerry has also gained ground in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. But, none have moved enough at the moment to shift out of Toss-Up status. To review our most recent state-by-state projection, click HERE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slothrop Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 There's just no predicting this thing until it actually happens... electoral-vote.com has it for Kerry right now, 284-247. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Posted October 19, 2004 Author Share Posted October 19, 2004 Bets on another cluster-f*** after the election? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iain Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 So would the election ever pass as a scientific analysis of voter opinion? Is there a monster margin of error? It would seem that with a race this close, and a voting system this complicated and in places, antiquated, it's simply impossible to determine with statistical significance who wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Posted October 19, 2004 Author Share Posted October 19, 2004 Another reason to dump the electoral college. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slothrop Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 iain, you're just being defeatist by bringing reality into the discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foraker Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 the only question is, who files the first lawsuit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slothrop Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 Many lawsuits have already been filed in several states on election-related issues. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/10/15/politics1707EDT0703.DTL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eternalX Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 My fav part of electoral-vote.com Are the voters stupid? It is not considered politically correct to point out that an awful lot of voters don't have a clue what they are talking about. A recent poll from Middle Tennessee State University sheds some light on the subject. For example, when asked which candidate wants to roll back the tax cuts for people making over $200,000 a year, a quarter thought it was Bush and a quarter didn't know. And it goes down hill from there. When asked which candidate supports specific positions on various issues, the results were no better than chance. While this poll was in Tennessee, I strongly suspect a similar poll in other states would get similar results. I find it dismaying that many people will vote for Bush because they want to tax the rich (which he opposes) or vote for Kerry because they want school vouchers for religious schools (which he opposes). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryland_moore Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 What is scary is there is a large possibility for there to be a tie in electoral votes at 269 to 269. If Bush wins a few of the swing states like Ohio and Florida, and Kerry wins the rest, then there will be a tie. Guess who casts the final vote then? The House, meaning GW another four more. Another election decided by someone other than the American people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b-rock Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 Votes should be weighted by IQ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dru Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 I am reminded of the part of F9/11 where Moore criticizes Gore for not declaring himself President when he could have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olyclimber Posted October 19, 2004 Share Posted October 19, 2004 It's gonna be hard work in the election booth, but I'm resolute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Flash_Amazing Posted October 20, 2004 Share Posted October 20, 2004 It's gonna be hard work in the election booth, but I'm resolute. It takes leadership! You've gotta send a clear message! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marylou Posted October 20, 2004 Share Posted October 20, 2004 Another reason to dump the electoral college. Neeever gonna happen. Take a 2/3 majority of states to make a constitutional amendment, and too many small states benefit from the current setup. A more likely, and logical reform is for states to opt to use their electoral votes in proportion to the popular vote. In our case then, in WA, JK would get 6 or 7 and GWB would get 5 or 4, more than likely. Being a Democrat and living in a state that goes to the Democrat in presidential elections, I would prefer do do this alongside a bunch of other states. I'm okay with the concept of allocating our EC votes proportionately though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glacier Posted October 21, 2004 Share Posted October 21, 2004 Neeever gonna happen... too many small states benefit from the current setup. Actually, no. All quiet in the small states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EWolfe Posted October 21, 2004 Share Posted October 21, 2004 I heard a statistic today that no incumbent has ever won re-election with less than 60% approval rate. Don't know if it is true, but if so, GW is well below that at this point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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