head game and mindset after a scare?

[bedellympian]

Last Tuesday I was climbing at Smith Rock with some friends. One of them got a call from another mutual friend saying he had fallen while soloing and needed assistance. We ran over there just as the park ranger arrived on scene and generally felt useless until we helped SAR take the litter out.

 

He had been soloing Super Slab (3 pitch 5.6). He was 25 ft up pitch 1 (5.5), it was still a little damp from recent rains (compromises tuff integrity) but he thought it would be OK. He thinks a foot hold broke. Luckily he landed feet first and tumbled down the hill to a switchback. He got out of the hospital next day with 4 staples in his head, 5 broken ribs, broken elbow, bruised lungs, swollen liver, sprained wrist and some serious bruising/road rash on his thigh/butt/torso. All in all pretty lucky and he is now walking around without assistance less than a week later.

 

In case you think he was out of control: he has redpointed many 5.12s, is solid/onsight 5.11 trad and sport, had soloed this route 8-10 times before (it is known for solid rock). I have climbed the route probably 8 times and soloed it 3 times myself. I wouldn't consider either of us unsafe, and most people who have climbed with him before commented that they felt he was a very safe and proficient climber. Everyone who knew him was surprised that it had happened to him.

 

I guess the reason I'm posting this, besides saying don't solo or climb sketchy gear routes at smith when the rock is damp, is because it has definitely taken away some of my psyche and made me unnecessarily fearful in certain situations. It's not that I'm aware of new dangers, I knew and accepted all the risks before and did my best to negate them within my chosen style. I feel like this fear has the potential to be paralyzing and to prevent me from enjoying certain climbs. I recently read Twight's Kiss or Kill, read about Chad's death on Fitz, and now this. I've been thinking a lot about accidents and death in climbing. I don't want to stop, I still feel the same way about risk taking and how I climb when I assess it objectively. I guess I wonder what other, more experienced climbers feel in this situation. Do you cancel a trip if you know a climber who gets hurt? Does it just not faze you after a few years?

 

I know I'm asking for personal responses and ultimately I need to decide for myself. I guess I'd just like a little perspective from others who have been around the block.

 

If anyone has questions about the incident too, please feel free to ask. I went up on the Super Slab Saturday (w/ partner and rope). It was just as easy and solid as I remember. I did see a fresh flake scar in kind of the right place but it seemed too big and I don't remember seeing it from the base on Tuesday.

[num1mc]

it was still a little damp from recent rains (compromises tuff integrity)

 

Probably not

[G-spotter]

Poor quality rock doesn't think about what your lead grade is before it decides to break.

[jared_j]

The longer you climb and engage with a climbing community, the more accidents you'll hear about.

 

If awareness of accidents around you changes how you make decisions as a climber, that's probably a good thing. What you call being "unnecessarily fearful in certain situations" could be "more aware of possible consequences that I didn't really consider before". I'm assuming that you're using a litle linguistic flourish here and not experiencing a panic attack on lead.

 

A more experienced climber than I once told me that hearing about accidents is "positive feedback". I asked if that's positive feedback, then what's negative feedback? His reply: "Taking risks which you aren't accurately assessing or weighing, and repeatedly getting away with it."

Edited March 10, 2014 by jared_j

[BootsandPants]

We say we accept the risks inherent in climbing, but those risks and their consequences aren't really brought into the forefront of our minds until something happens to someone close to us. It's one thing to read about accidents and deaths in the hills and think "man, that's horrible, good vibes to their family/friends". It's another thing all together to be on the flip side of that and have it happen to someone you're close with. Lots of feelings and emotions to deal with.

 

As to how to deal with it; everyone's different, and will deal with it differently. I think everyone involved in an accident will re-evaluate their own risk tolerance however; some will remain the same, some will be more cautious, and some will stop all together. Luckily I've never had any real close friends get seriously injured or die in the mountains, so I can't say how I personally would react. I hope to never have to find out.

 

Regarding rock quality; I never thought that a piece would have broken off the Sword on the Grand since it's climbed so much and that rock is so damn solid, but hey, that shit happened last August. Luckily nobody was hurt. It's all part of the game...

[tvashtarkatena]

2 things:

 

What's the probability of a high injury/death fall in any given situation? 5% might be low if you don't do it very often. If you take such risks a lot, however, 5% can catch up with you because the probability of making the move successfully over a multiple tries (N) = .95^N. So, the probability of making a 95% move 14 times in a row drops below 50%. Plus, are you really 95%, and not, say, 60% sure you can make the move? The odds very quickly fall out of your favor in that range.

 

On the flip side, what is the risk of not climbing, given that sitting is one of the least healthy past times?

Edited March 10, 2014 by tvashtarkatena

[ivan]

something's gotta kill you...

[rob]

So, the probability of making a 95% move 14 times in a row drops below 50%. Plus, are you really 95%, and not, say, 60% sure you can make the move? The odds very quickly fall out of your favor in that range.

 

yeah, but once you make the move, the probably of the past moves resets to 1 -- at the time of execution, the odds of making the 95% move are 95% every time you make the move, regardless of how many times you made the move before.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistically_independent

 

 

The question is, is 95% good enough for you? That's the rub

Edited March 10, 2014 by rob

[ivan]

the question is, how much does your life suck currently and how much more is it going to suck when the nubbin pops?

[denalidave]

I know for me, personally, I take far less risks when climbing than I did in my youth. I'm sure it's pretty common that with age and more scary incidents near to you, the more one will back it down a notch. I'm not as "invizable" as I was when I was 20-something. Having kids changes your perspective more than anything. Seems I still thrive on some sort of risk to stave off the boredom of ordinary and sanitized life, however. In the end, you gotta "get back on that horse" if you want to press beyond the times that scared you into a more sensible pace of action. (IMHO)

[tvashtarkatena]

Hmmm, you get an F on that stats test, Rob

 

The probability of something with an x% probability happening N times in a row is x^N.

 

You need to not fall N times in a row in order to escape the consequences. Per instance versus lifetime probabilities of success are quite different.

 

This is what six sigma is all about.

 

Edited March 10, 2014 by tvashtarkatena

[rob]

Hmmm, you get an F on that stats test, Rob

 

The probability of something with an x% probability happening N times in a row is x^N.

 

Sure, the probability of flipping a coin heads every time 50 times in a row is small, but *everytime* you actually flip it, it's still 1/2 -- the previous number of flips no longerinfluences the outcome. Look it up. A 95% move will always be 95%, while actually making the move, regardless of previous history.

 

Should I show a proof?

Edited March 10, 2014 by rob

[tvashtarkatena]

The probability of flipping a 'heads' 10 times in a row is not the same as for flipping 'heads' 5 times in a row, even if the probability of flipping heads remains 50% every time.

 

Do your own research on that, dood.

 

I can't believe I'm besting you with a 35 year old stats class.

 

If you're a free soloist and flipping a 'tails' means death - you need to flip a 'heads' every damn time - ei, thousands of times in a row over a climbing career

 

It's exactly the same calculation as flipping 'heads' a bunch of times in a row, just with different number for the probability.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 10, 2014 by tvashtarkatena

[rob]

You love to argue I like that about you.

 

My point is that the number of times you've made a 95% move has nothing to do with the odds of making the next 95% move. Stats 101! a 95% move made after 20 years of climbing is just as 95% as the very first time you made it. The odds of going 20 years without a 5% chance of failure are smaller, but when you actually make the move it doesn't matter how many times you tried before -- your odds aren't somehow worse because you've never had your 5% failure yet.

 

This is clearly not the same as your original statement, which I'm willing to allow you misspoke about and will not even bother quoting.

 

but if you want to measure penis size, I'm game lolz. How do I upload pictures again?

[tvashtarkatena]

"What's the probability of a high injury/death fall in any given situation? 5% might be low if you don't do it very often. If you take such risks a lot, however, 5% can catch up with you because the probability of making the move successfully over a multiple tries (N) = .95^N. So, the probability of making a 95% move 14 times in a row drops below 50%. Plus, are you really 95%, and not, say, 60% sure you can make the move? The odds very quickly fall out of your favor in that range."

 

Word problems get a lot of people. No worries. Apology accepted.

 

[rob]

"5% might be low if you don't do it very often"?

 

the number of times you take a 5% change risk doesn't change the odds of that individual risk, though

 

 

nevermind bro Either you don't get it, or we're talking about different thinkgs or something. I'll take the high path! Obviously the longer you engage in risk activity, the greater number of times you roll the dice. The odds of the roll itself don't change just because you've rolled the dice a bunch of times before, though. Semantics, I guess. Carry on

 

Edited March 10, 2014 by rob

[ivan]

i solo so i DON'T have to think about nerdy shit like math

[tvashtarkatena]

I've watched you do this with lots of folks when you've misread or don't understand something but won't admit it, Rob. It's a bit weird to go through the lengths you have to put it on display like this, but we've all got quirks. I'm sure my idea is clear to anyone else who cares, which is likely no one at this point, so I'm good.

 

Change 5% to 1% or 10% and do the x^N independent events in a row equation and let me know when you come up with equal results.

[dougd]

Do you cancel a trip if you know a climber who gets hurt? Does it just not faze you after a few years?

 

I know I'm asking for personal responses and ultimately I need to decide for myself. I guess I'd just like a little perspective from others who have been around the block.

 

From my perspective, when fear crosses the line from healthy (i.e.: increases focus), to distracting (i.e.: to losing focus), I back off. Sometimes I've just needed to take a break from what I consider hard climbing for a while.

 

Back in the day, I used to solo quite a bit. Some of it I wired thoroughly prior to soloing, and some alpine stuff I did solo was on sight mostly because those places were hard to get to. I had a lot to lose then, as now. I was a lot more solid back then and had a high degree of confidence after all the preparation was done and it was time to step off... Now it's different. I'm older and my body has changed. I can't train like I used to, so I've made some adjustments in the type of climbing I do. I try a lot harder to find partners and don't solo much anymore. And I know I'll have to walk away someday, but not yet. I admire guys like Twight who know when the time is right to walk. I really enjoyed Kiss or Kill too btw...

 

It's always difficult to see, or hear about, people getting hurt or killed doing what we do. It never gets easier. At least for me it hasn't. It's never really caused me to cancel a trip that I really wanted to do though. Chad's situation was really bad luck. Could happen to any of us. I did not know him, but I felt the loss. Accepting that we can die up there is a big part of finding the peace that is a part of the beauty of what we do. It has to be worth it, otherwise, it's time to walk...

 

Sounds like you just need a bit of a break to me to re evaluate. Good luck

 

d

[pcg]

Tvash has a special coin. When he flips it, the probability of it being heads is 49%. Rob has a normal coin. Prior to this event, however, Rob has flipped his normal coin 99 times and gotten heads every time. Now, you are given the following dilemma. You must pick one of them to flip his coin for you.

If it’s tails you must jump off a cliff into a huge vat of boiling oil, while Ivan recites the Beowulf thing. If it’s heads, you live to post another day. Who do you choose to flip for you?

 

[ivan]

i demand this be on pay-per-view

[rob]

 

It's okay, Pat. You can't be right about everything, even if it makes you really butt-hurt when you're wrong. I can understand that for sure. You can keep acting like a dick though, if you want -- i'm not going to feel bad trying to explain the sky is blue to a grouch. Don't you know bullying me doesn't work by now, though? Anyway, Cheers!

Edited March 11, 2014 by rob

[ivan]

"if you like your statistics, you can keep them"

 

did you know the majority of statistics are actually just made up?

[ivan]

i spent most of my college stats class wondering why the fuck my very well-heeled university couldn't find a professor capable of speaking the english language to teach it

[tvashtarkatena]

The sky is grey.