Fux Freakout

[JayB]

Hopefully Intrade will start taking bets on whether Egypt looks more like Iran after '79 or Eastern Europe after '89 in a couple of years - it'd be interesting to what emerged when people had to commit a reasonable chunk of money towards one prediction or another.

 

Hoping for '89 but developments in the Arab/Muslim world seem to trending in the other direction. Not sure that polling data from Europe and elsewhere supports the notion that the absence of severe state repression, the opportunity to build a life in a liberal democracy, etc is sufficient to significantly alter the core political, religious, and ethical convictions of all Muslims who practice their faith under those conditions.

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/international_security_bt/221.php

[tvashtarkatena]

That's interesting. By all reports the revolution in Egypt seems to be almost entirely secular so far.

[tvashtarkatena]

We know how much you love Muslims, though.

[prole]

Not sure...the opportunity to build a life in a liberal democracy, etc is sufficient to significantly alter the core political, religious, and ethical convictions of all Muslims who practice their faith under those conditions.

 

I wonder if the same could be said about our Christian Problem.

[JayB]

Not sure...the opportunity to build a life in a liberal democracy, etc is sufficient to significantly alter the core political, religious, and ethical convictions of all Muslims who practice their faith under those conditions.

 

I wonder if the same could be said about our Christian Problem.

 

I'll be a happy man if the total death toll from religious fanaticism in Muslim countries is 1-2 people per 300 million every 4-5 years, and they manage to institute an set of institutional safeguards for individual liberties that equals our own despite our "Christian Problem."

 

The major unstated premise behind your comment is that all religions, and by extension, all sets of religious convictions are fundamentally the same, and thereby equally likely to arouse violent fanaticism in their adherents, and present equal obstacles to the advancement of liberal values.

 

The logical correlate of this is that what people believe - their most fundamental and deeply held convictions - have absolutely no influence over how they understand the world and behave in response to what they experience in it.

 

If you believe that, then I suppose you can believe that that a religion that has an extreme commitment to non-violence at it's core (let's take Harris's example of Jainism as an example), and a religion that has adopted the concept of holy-war in defense of the faith as a central duty of all believers are equally likely to produce suicide bombers.

 

Crazy.

[JayB]

That's interesting. By all reports the revolution in Egypt seems to be almost entirely secular so far.

 

I hope it stays that way. Really.

 

There were lots of leftists, secularists, etc out on the street in '79 but in the end they were routed by the most effectively organized, ideologically committed, and ruthless contingent amongst them.

 

Think the same was true in 1919, 1789, etc.

 

Hopefully they're an exception to the rule, but I'm not sure that the compass needle is pointing towards an Arab Netherlands emerging there in the wake of significant political reforms.

[Kimmo]

They should be called out on their shit at every opportunity, not coddled in some relativist marshmallow fog of "interpretation".

 

i would suggest that, with the size of the audience here, you avail yourself of this opportunity to afford change with the perspicuous insights you speak of.

 

i would further suggest that beck speaks of actual considerations discussed in the current administration.

[JayB]

We know how much you love Muslims, though.

 

Nothing against Muslims, but I do loathe the set of ideas and ethical convictions that is at the heart of the strain of Islam that's been on the rise for the past 30-40 years.

 

What is it that you like about fundamentalist Islam? How compatible is it - as it's understood and preached in Saudi funded Mosques, Pakistani Madrassas, Taliban encampments, and Hamas militia gatherings - with the institutional priorities of the ACLU?

[Kimmo]

Hopefully Intrade will start taking bets on whether Egypt looks more like Iran after '79 or Eastern Europe after '89 in a couple of years - it'd be interesting to what emerged when people had to commit a reasonable chunk of money towards one prediction or another.

 

two questions:

 

1. on which would your money be?

 

2. why were you not equally pessimistic regarding iraq after the US invasion? (if pessimism is what i detect.) it certainly wasn't because one was a dictator and the other wasn't, right?

[tvashtarkatena]

That's interesting. By all reports the revolution in Egypt seems to be almost entirely secular so far.

 

I hope it stays that way. Really.

 

There were lots of leftists, secularists, etc out on the street in '79 but in the end they were routed by the most effectively organized, ideologically committed, and ruthless contingent amongst them.

 

Think the same was true in 1919, 1789, etc.

 

Hopefully they're an exception to the rule, but I'm not sure that the compass needle is pointing towards an Arab Netherlands emerging there in the wake of significant political reforms.

 

I happens. Your patronizing view of Egyptians as mostly radical and violent muslims is that of a typical fuck head, however. What do you really know of Middle Eastern culture? Nothing, really.

[JayB]

Hopefully Intrade will start taking bets on whether Egypt looks more like Iran after '79 or Eastern Europe after '89 in a couple of years - it'd be interesting to what emerged when people had to commit a reasonable chunk of money towards one prediction or another.

 

two questions:

 

1. on which would your money be?

 

2. why were you not equally pessimistic regarding iraq after the US invasion? (if pessimism is what i detect.) it certainly wasn't because one was a dictator and the other wasn't, right?

 

1. On '79, but that's a bet I'd be delighted to lose.

 

2. I'm not particularly optimistic about the prospects for a liberal order emerging Iraq, but I'm glad they've been afforded an opportunity to exert a more significant influence over their political system. If they want to weave the noose or fundamentalist Islamic repression around their own necks, so be it. After a decade, or several, of stagnation and decay perhaps they'll change their minds.

 

The only place in the Muslim world that I'm remotely optimistic about in the long term is Iran. They've had a chance to live with the consequences of embracing an Islamic Theocracy as their political system, and my sense is that it's turned them into the most ardent secularists in the greater Middle East.

 

 

[JayB]

That's interesting. By all reports the revolution in Egypt seems to be almost entirely secular so far.

 

I hope it stays that way. Really.

 

There were lots of leftists, secularists, etc out on the street in '79 but in the end they were routed by the most effectively organized, ideologically committed, and ruthless contingent amongst them.

 

Think the same was true in 1919, 1789, etc.

 

Hopefully they're an exception to the rule, but I'm not sure that the compass needle is pointing towards an Arab Netherlands emerging there in the wake of significant political reforms.

 

I happens. Your patronizing view of Egyptians as mostly radical and violent muslims is that of a typical fuck head, however. What do you really know of Middle Eastern culture? Nothing, really.

 

My view isn't that they are mostly radical and violent. It's that the most extensively organized, ideologically committed, and ruthless group amongst them happens to be composed of Muslims with radical sympathies who have a violent track record.

 

Bolsheviks were far from a majority in Russia in 1917, but they carried the day nonetheless, with catastrophic results for the country and the world.

 

The remainder of your comment is a weak ad-hominem of the kind used by Chris Hedges at al. Personal acquaintance with the Middle East and/or a handful of moderate Muslims doesn't trump data sets generate with massive polling inputs, the undeniable prevalence of Islamist violence and repression, much less the plain meaning of the passages in the Koran, the Hadith, or the precepts of Sharia.

 

Still waiting to hear what it is that you personally find appealing about Wahabism, etc, and how consistent that is with the set of convictions that you claim to personally champion via your (seldom mentioned) association with the ACLU?

[olyclimber]

 

what sucks is when democracy happens to countries that aren't cool like the USA

[Kimmo]

[The remainder of your comment is a weak ad-hominem of the kind used by Chris Hedges at al. Personal acquaintance with the Middle East and/or a handful of moderate Muslims doesn't trump data sets generate with massive polling inputs, the undeniable prevalence of Islamist violence and repression, much less the plain meaning of the passages in the Koran, the Hadith, or the precepts of Sharia.

 

the "plain meaning" of passages in the koran argument is a bit of a canard, since other religions have passages every bit as violent. also, to dismiss the input of a journalist such as hedges is simply willful protectionism of one's viewpoint: he has lived in the area for what, 15 years?

 

can you provide a link to the extensive polling you speak of? i found a pew poll, but it spoke of rather conditional muslim support for violence, usually in the context of US aggression etc.

Still waiting to hear what it is that you personally find appealing about Wahabism, etc, and how consistent that is with the set of convictions that you claim to personally champion via your (seldom mentioned) association with the ACLU?

 

hey, that's a rather low-blow. false modesty is not a virtue if one is the National Director of the ACLU.

[rob]

Fux capacitor:

 

 

[billcoe]

Prole, since you missed it I'll give it up for you. The complete rundown on the right wing nut jobs Egyptian conspiracy theory's here: http://gawker.com/5749601/the-right+wing-nuts-guide-to-egypt They have the Rush's and the Glen Becks, but a bunch of others as well. It's pretty good as are the comments below.

 

 

Oh, one more thing: Hey Pat, Fuck you asshole, I'm not posting this for you ya self-centered self-important be nothing do nothing dickhead. Jay knows that place better than you do your house ya patronizing piece of shit. Have a nice day.

Your patronizing view of Egyptians as mostly radical and violent muslims is that of a typical fuck head, however. What do you really know of Middle Eastern culture? Nothing, really.

[rob]

i don't get it, Glenn Beck. Is it a snowball, or is it a fireball? I think he confuses even himself.

[JayB]

-It's not a canard at all if it still exerts a clear and meaningful influence over the manner in which people understand the world and behave within it, and there's a body of tradition and law that actively reinforces it. Exhibit A is the penalty for apostasy. There are many others.

 

The fact that there are barbaric passages in a given religion's holy text matters quite a bit less than the cultural norms, interpretations, and secular institutions that have evolved to moderate their influence on people's beliefs and behavior.

 

But again - your argument seems to be a restatement of the belief that all religions are equally likely to stoke violence and barbarism, and present equally robust obstacles to the emergence and preservation of a liberal order. That's no less ludicrous than the idea that all political ideologies are equally likely to do so.

 

-To paraphrase Harris, there's a reason why it makes more sense to use polling data to gauge popular opinion in the Middle East than it does to send a New York Times reporter out to get a vibe.

Even if Harris made it a point to ask every single person he met point blank whether or not they supported suicide, his answer would be orders of magnitude less useful than the polling data.

 

 

[ivan]

i don't give a shit about any religion frankly, but an illustrative difference between christianity and islam might be found in their respective first centuries of existence.

 

in their first century:

- how many square miles of territory did each religion conquer?

- how many of the religions members were murdered by other members of the religion?

- how many former members of the religion were murdered after deciding to opt out of the faith?

- how many of the leaders of the religion were murdered?

 

 

 

[JayB]

i don't give a shit about any religion frankly, but an illustrative difference between christianity and islam might be found in their respective first centuries of existence.

 

in their first century:

- how many square miles of territory did each religion conquer?

- how many of the religions members were murdered by other members of the religion?

- how many former members of the religion were murdered after deciding to opt out of the faith?

- how many of the leaders of the religion were murdered?

 

 

 

Agreed.

 

Also think it matters if the founder and prime exemplar of how to live in accordance with your faith is widely understood to be a bronze age hippy that got murdered for his politics or a conquering warlord.

[rob]

i don't give a shit about any religion frankly, but

 

Ah, don't do the whole, "well, I'm not anti-religion, BUT..." thing where you try to not offend the religous and end up watering yourself down.

 

Religion is one of the most common mental diseases that infects mankid. It's dangerous and holds us back as a species. It shouldn't be treated with equanimity or respect, it should be actively discouraged and exposed.

[ivan]

dude, douglas adams is my god

[rob]

all things are possible under the Lord God Arthur Fonzerelli

[Kimmo]

-It's not a canard at all if it still exerts a clear and meaningful influence over the manner in which people understand the world and behave within it, and there's a body of tradition and law that actively reinforces it. Exhibit A is the penalty for apostasy. There are many others.

 

The fact that there are barbaric passages in a given religion's holy text matters quite a bit less than the cultural norms, interpretations, and secular institutions that have evolved to moderate their influence on people's beliefs and behavior.

 

But again - your argument seems to be a restatement of the belief that all religions are equally likely to stoke violence and barbarism, and present equally robust obstacles to the emergence and preservation of a liberal order. That's no less ludicrous than the idea that all political ideologies are equally likely to do so.

 

-To paraphrase Harris, there's a reason why it makes more sense to use polling data to gauge popular opinion in the Middle East than it does to send a New York Times reporter out to get a vibe.

Even if Harris made it a point to ask every single person he met point blank whether or not they supported suicide, his answer would be orders of magnitude less useful than the polling data.

 

 

point taken, but what about the polls you speak of? link please.

[Kimmo]

Religion is one of the most common mental diseases that infects mankid. It's dangerous and holds us back as a species. It shouldn't be treated with equanimity or respect, it should be actively discouraged and exposed.

 

let's be a bit more specific. a wide brush-stroke there....