Silence in Syria, Panic in Iran

[Couloir]

An interesting story about what happened in September in Syria. The big question, what's next?

 

(This was originally published in the WSJ... reprinted at Ocnus.net )

 

Silence in Syria, Panic in Iran

By Dr. Jack Wheeler, To The Point News 19/9/07

Sep 25, 2007 - 12:09:27 PM

 

One if India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

 

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing,' he reports. 'No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, 'Do you think the Americans will attack us?' 'When will the Americans attack us?' 'Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly. The Iranians are in a state of total panic.'

 

And that was before September 6. Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran. The mullahs are freaking out in fear. Why? Because of the silence in Syria. On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr. Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets. Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal. Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story. It is not Israel's silence that 'speaks volumes' as he claims, but Syria's.

 

Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil? The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13): Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World. Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, 'considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology.' Syria now 'possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world,' with 'more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,' some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria 'before being introduced into Russian operation service.' While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria: Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel. An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace. And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6th. Nothing.

 

El blanko. Silence. The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada. The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded. Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless. They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless. As in naked. Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.

 

I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament. Let's face it: scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun. It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too. On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that 'France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program.' All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats. On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that '600 Shihab-3 missiles' will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel.

 

This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that 'we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack.' A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff. So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh. Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh. Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious. The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous. Something is going to blow and soon. The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within. But make no mistake: an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days. The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

 

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr? It's possible it was North Korean 'nuclear material' recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively 'dirty' warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006). Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel. A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003. But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target. It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack. Doing so made the attack an incredible success. Syria is shamed and silent. Iran is freaking out in panic. Defenseless enemies are fun.

 

Source: Ocnus.net 2007

[JayB]

Interesting.

[Couloir]

It helps explain a little Russia's reaction to the notion of an attack on Iran.

[cj001f]

Interesting how the flight global report differs from the WSJ editorial (no surprise that)

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2007/10/02/217656/israel-ends-silence-on-syria-air-strike.html

[ClimbingPanther]

hehe, interesting indeed.

[JosephH]

All the Russians need to do is to prod the Turks to respond to our latest affront to them a bit harsher than the EU is currently giving them lattitude to do. Something like 75% of the material support for our operations in Iraq go through Turkey - if the Turks tighten or simply slow their sphincter down to say 50%, we will end up in a mild chaos in Iraq and far too distracted to take on anything else.

[JayB]

How would that benefit Turkey? Seems like they'd need some tangible benefit in exchange for effectively deep-sixing any hope they ever had of gaining EU membership by pissing off the single most important sponsor of those ambitions.

 

I can see how that might benefit Russia in the short-term by keeping oil-prices high, but there are risks to overplaying the hydrocarbon card as well.

[ClimbingPanther]

anyone ever considered the timing of this resolution? maybe it's one avenue Democrats found to use to stop the war in Iraq? that's effectively what it has the potential to catalyze.

[JosephH]

I suspect the EU, if pressed by the Russians via natural gas supply issues looming over this winter, would allow the Turks to squeeze the US operations in Iraq just because at this point we've created such a mess for everyone and everyone is a bit pissed at the prospect of cleaning up our mess over the long haul (except of course the Chinese who are relishing the prospect of bankrolling all the infrastructure repairs...).

[kevbone]

Predictions on when Mr. Bush is going to bomb yet another country that did not attack us? I say by the end of the year.

[chucK]

Headline and teaser from NYtimes.com

 

Turkish Premier Plays Down Threat to Iraq

By ALISSA J. RUBIN 10:36 AM ET

 

Parliamentary approval of cross-border raids would not necessarily be followed by quick military action, he said.

 

...........

Where have we heard that one before?

 

[cj001f]

How would that benefit Turkey?

 

Externally or internally?

[canyondweller]

anyone ever considered the timing of this resolution? maybe it's one avenue Democrats found to use to stop the war in Iraq? that's effectively what it has the potential to catalyze.

 

Many people have considered the timing here, including eight former secretaries of state who have implored Nancy Pelosi to desist from pursuing this resolution. What Pelosi, in effect, is doing is taking informed action to DE-STABILIZE a currently stable region. Turkey is one of our best allies in that region, not to mention a treaty-bound NATO ally (2nd largest standing army in NATO, after the U.S.) Pursuit of this resolution puts American soldiers at greater risk. For what? Ending, or greatly curtailing, the war in Iraq is small potatoes here. Pelosi is taking steps to actively isolate the U.S. from a strong ally.

 

Another, unconfirmed source has said that the Armenian Lobbyists aren't even pushing this resolution at this time. Makes it even more odd.

 

 

[chucK]

This condemning Turkey thing is completely baffling to me. This is out-Bushing the Bushies.

 

When you look at the headlines with us actively pissing off the Russians with our ABM's, the Chinese with Dalai Lama, the Turks with this stupid resolution, it's scary. Throw these guys on the heap of every other nation we've alienated in recent history, and you gotta hope we don't have some economic or other collapse that will weaken us to the point of needing help, or even more scary, weak enough to fuck with.

 

Ugh.

 

 

Well at least it seems like good news has been coming out of Iraq the last week or so

[KaskadskyjKozak]

This condemning Turkey thing is completely baffling to me. This is out-Bushing the Bushies.

 

When you look at the headlines with us actively pissing off the Russians with our ABM's, the Chinese with Dalai Lama, the Turks with this stupid resolution, it's scary. Throw these guys on the heap of every other nation we've alienated in recent history, and you gotta hope we don't have some economic or other collapse that will weaken us to the point of needing help, or even more scary, weak enough to fuck with.

 

Ugh.

 

 

Well at least it seems like good news has been coming out of Iraq the last week or so

 

OTOH, Turkey has hamstrung us over the last 17 years in our dealing with Iraq. We have to kow-tow to their desires even if it is not the best policy, with the greatest chance to succeed. Think Kurdistan.

 

[Serenity]

Predictions on when Mr. Bush is going to bomb yet another country that did not attack us? I say by the end of the year.

 

I suggest you up your Iranian history IQ a bit, then join in on the big folks conversations.

 

Chuck, you sound scared. Are you scared? Because you sound pretty scared. I'm sure my life expectancy will diminish considerably if something happens with Iran, worse yet, maybe not even be able to get home from that part of the world period.

 

Now what are you scared about again Chuck? You worry too much, I got your back.

[kevbone]

 

I suggest you up your Iranian history IQ a bit,

 

 

Oh whoops….my bad….I forgot about that last time Iran attacked the USA…..wait….Google cant find anything about an attack by Iran……Google must be wrong because you are “big boy” playing in the big boy sand box…..

 

Guess…..I will go and complain about how you made fun of me in Café sensitivo……

 

 

Boo hoo hoo…..

 

 

So when is Mr. Bush going to attack Iran?

 

 

 

[KaskadskyjKozak]

 

I suggest you up your Iranian history IQ a bit,

 

 

Oh whoops….my bad….I forgot about that last time Iran attacked the USA…..wait….Google cant find anything about an attack by Iran……Google must be wrong because you are “big boy” playing in the big boy sand box…..

 

Guess…..I will go and complain about how you made fun of me in Café sensitivo……

 

 

Boo hoo hoo…..

 

 

So when is Mr. Bush going to attack Iran?

 

 

 

Kevboner: post less; read and learn more.

 

 

[chucK]

Perhaps I should make this my new avatar img

Edited October 16, 2007 by chucK

[kevbone]

 

I suggest you up your Iranian history IQ a bit,

 

 

Oh whoops….my bad….I forgot about that last time Iran attacked the USA…..wait….Google cant find anything about an attack by Iran……Google must be wrong because you are “big boy” playing in the big boy sand box…..

 

Guess…..I will go and complain about how you made fun of me in Café sensitivo……

 

 

Boo hoo hoo…..

 

 

So when is Mr. Bush going to attack Iran?

 

 

 

Kevboner: post less; read and learn more.

 

 

 

Or I could be like you……smart as hell…but not know anything!

 

 

Am I not entitled to my own opinion? Just like you? Isn’t that what America was founded on?

 

 

Now that we that settled……answer me one question……

 

Why am I a bigger tool than you?

 

 

 

 

[Bug]

Well, it's good to see dissenting opinions on cc.com again.

I strongly disaggree with you and wonder how you can really believe some of the things you say but I am glad there are some right wing whackos posting.

Hang in there.

[kevbone]

and wonder how you can really believe some of the things you say

 

 

That is how I feel as well……good to know spray is for fun……cheers.

 

 

[crackers]

The russians have little to no direct leverage over the turks. Then again, neither does the EU right now. We're doing a fantastic job of being friendly...oh well, more work for the merry, huh?

 

Does anybody else know where the southern most Turkish Army base is? I'll give you a hint, as recently as in 2001, they had tanks here . But they're a bit further north now...

 

The hot pursuit thing is 85% internal turkish politics. I'm pretty sure that if somebody googled hot pursuit doctrine and international law and Turkey PKK, you'd find plenty of stuff about it.

 

You've just won an election, you have a mandate, but you want to take the opponents' issue for your own. There are persistent rumors in the local conservative press that you've been losing soldiers since a depressing and embarrassing incident a few years ago when you actually had to visit a town to calm things down after your security forces fucked up while off the ranch. So what do you do before introducing serious reforms to your constitution that are going to raise hell and change the nature of society? Anybody?

 

The other 15% is telling Talabani's friends to toe the fucking line before somebody loses a toe. I know, I know, Talabani keeps saying "Biz iki parti olarak Türkiye'ye karşı PKK'ya hiçbir yardımda bulunmadık" but come on, whoever protests loudest that our two parties have not given any support to the PKK against Turkey must be a little guilty...why else would he feel that an understanding with Turkey would be a compelling reason to not work with the PKK?

 

Of course, wherever this alleged bombing took place is probably only a few miles from Turkey. It sure would be a bad thing if those nasty bombing planes didn't get their passports stamped at Ceylanpinar as they leaving turkey. I mean the Turks, who control virtually all flows of water to the Syrians and have repeatedly said they would stop the water if a convincing argument was needed, wouldn't care whether or not the Syrians had a bomb, would they?

 

Serenity, somehow, I don't think you've got all that much to worry about...I'm sure the situation will take care of itself nicely.

 

Anybody want to go climbing in the Cilo/Sat range? I've heard it's marvelous at this time of the year...

 

edited for url clarity

Edited October 16, 2007 by crackers

[Seahawks]

 

 

Now that we that settled……answer me one question……

 

Why am I a bigger tool than you?

 

 

 

 

enough said tool.

[noliquidity]

 

Many people have considered the timing here, including eight former secretaries of state who have implored Nancy Pelosi to desist from pursuing this resolution. What Pelosi, in effect, is doing is taking informed action to DE-STABILIZE a currently stable region. Turkey is one of our best allies in that region, not to mention a treaty-bound NATO ally (2nd largest standing army in NATO, after the U.S.) Pursuit of this resolution puts American soldiers at greater risk. For what? Ending, or greatly curtailing, the war in Iraq is small potatoes here. Pelosi is taking steps to actively isolate the U.S. from a strong ally.

 

Another, unconfirmed source has said that the Armenian Lobbyists aren't even pushing this resolution at this time. Makes it even more odd.

 

 

 

Dont assume that the Democrats are not actually working with the Bush administration on this one . This is about one move in a longer term strategy. It may be a bargaining chip to get the Turks to back off the Kurds. It may be with the intent to start a low level civil war in the N.Iraq and N. Iran region(many Kurds in N. Iran). It would be a way to tie up Iranian resources in the north of their country while we go at them from the west, south and east.

It may be a round about way to prod the moderates in Iran to over throw their theocracy. The timing is too absurd to be a coincidence, as is Bushs timing to recognize the Dali Llama. When you play chess, the move you are making now is almost always based on what advantage it will give you 3 or 5 or 10 moves down the road.

 

Look at the end goal and work backwards.