Winter Climbing

[cracked]

[girlclimber]

i wanna give it a shot around full-moon time, early Feb. or March. someone else up for it?

[sastrugi]

While climbing during a full moon gives the benefit of night vision it has been said and exemplified that avalanch occurances tend to be more frequent during that period. Magnetic pull or something similar that a layman such as myself would never fully comprehend. The big Canook avie tragedy last year happened during a full moon.

[girlclimber]

hm, that is definitely something to think about. my main reason for going at that time (besides night visibility) is that there usually seems to be a bit of clear weather around a full moon.

[Redoubt]

... there usually seems to be a bit of clear weather around a full moon.

Say what?

[DPS]

Yeah, this is true. There is a statistically significant better chance of having clear weather during a full moon than during other phases of the moon. I have never heard about the avalanche hypothesis and I don't believe it. The moon does not exert a magnetic pull on the earth.

Edited December 30, 2003 by danielpatricksmith

[catbirdseat]

It is more likely that people will be out during a full moon and be there to trigger the avalanche.

[Redoubt]

Yeah, this is true. There is a statistically significant better chance of having clear weather during a full moon than during other phases of the moon.

Source? I've never heard of this connection at all. Statistically "significant?" Since the entire Earth experiences the same moon phase at any given time, that means that global weather is better every 28 days?

 

The moon does not exert a magnetic pull on the Earth, but it exerts a powerful gravitational pull (see "tides"). The avalanche link has at least been studied a bit, but I've never seen any solid conclusions published.

[iain]

The moon exerts a powerful gravitational pull on the earth folks. This is how tides are formed.

[DPS]

Source? I've never heard of this connection at all. Statistically "significant?" Since the entire Earth experiences the same moon phase at any given time, that means that global weather is better every 28 days?

 

 

 

I'll try to dig up a reference.

Edited December 30, 2003 by danielpatricksmith

[sastrugi]

This from http://www.science-frontiers.com/sf046/sf046p15.htm

 

"Another precipitating factor may be the gravitational pull of the moon. In research published last year, Peter Lev of the Utah Highway Department found that based on a statistical study of moon and avalanche cycles in the Wasatch Mountains during the past 20 years, the chance of an avalanche's occurring on a full and new moon was 100 times greater than it is during other days in the lunar cycle."

[sastrugi]

I ain't saying don't to go but to be aware of as many contributing factors as possible.

[DPS]

Hmmm, the article does not say what Journal the research was published in nor does it give any idea of the 'statistical' tests used. Any time a round number like 100 times is bandied about, my bullshit meter goes off. I am very skeptical as to the validity of the study. And once again children, correlation does not equal causation.

[Bronco]

Yeah, I can't remember hearing of this phenomena in any avalanche course, seminar or text book. Seems like an increase in avalanche occurrance of ONE HUNDRED TIMES is pretty significant and might have recieved at least a footnote.

[RobBob]

The gravitational force of the moon is obviously very strong, and it is accentuated when it is "full" ---lined up with the sun, so that they exert forces together (hence the highest "spring" tides).

 

I think that some scientists also believe that volcanic activity can be activated by the moon's force, the theory being that oftentimes it only takes small "triggers" to snap geologic formations that are on the verge of movement or change.

[Bug]

There is clear statistical proof that crime rates go up during a full moon. Maybe the additional avalanches are being triggered by criminals. That would explain all the chewed through food bags and the little turds in my gorp too.

[Fairweather]

..... the chance of an avalanche's occurring on a full and new moon was 100 times greater than it is during other days in the lunar cycle."

 

Are we to believe then, that the avy hazard is 100x greater on the day of the full moon than it is on the last day of a waxing gibbous phase?? Or the first day of the waining?

[browntoe98]

Hell boys, screw the winter climb. How about we set up a really nice prospective, randomized study of the effect of the full moon on unstable snow surfaces. It's a pity we can't control the phase of the moon or we could blind the study too! Then, instead of climbing next spring, we could get it published in a peer reviewed journal like Science or Nature. Sounds like more fun than climbing anyway.