Dumb avalanche question

[Charlie]

I plan on going over asgard pass tommorow. Is this an avalanche prone area this time of year? I checked the avi forecast and this is what it says:

 

"WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST FROM STEVENS PASS

SOUTHWARD...MT HOOD AREA...

Considerable avalanche danger above 6000 feet and moderate below

gradually increasing later Tuesday morning through Tuesday night,

becoming considerable above 4 to 5000 feet and moderate below.

Danger slightly decreasing later Wednesday morning, slightly

increasing Wednesday afternoon and becoming considerable above 5

to 6000 feet and moderate below. Gradually decreasing danger

expected Wednesday night.

 

 

WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Cooler and more showery weather is expected Wednesday morning

with showers decreasing Wednesday afternoon. This should allow

for a slight decrease in danger during the morning, however

possible sun breaks and daytime warming Wednesday afternoon

should produce locally increasing danger on sun exposed terrain

especially in areas receiving significant recent snowfall

overnight and early Wednesday. While the bond of new snow to the

old snow pack should be relatively good, sun induced warming

should produce considerable weakening and melt of near surface

snow, making loose or wet loose slides probable on sun exposed

terrain, and these may trigger isolated slabs. Increasing clouds

are expected mid-late Wednesday afternoon and night, mainly in

the north along with a little light rain or snow, again mainly in

the north. However with any precipitation expected to be quite

light, in general this should allow for a slight decrease in the

danger as recent snow continues to settle"

 

So- does this apply to that area? Again, is that area even avalanche prone?

Pardon my ignorance- any advice would be appreciated.

[Szyjakowski]

only if someone trundles rock towers on you>

J/k anyrate....I would assume it to be safe as long as it doesn't snow

have fun Charlie!

[mattp]

The entire slope from Colchuck Lake to Aasgard Pass is 3,000 feet of non-stop avalanche hazard. It probably has been mostly wind-scoured lately, and not as hazardous as some other slopes in the vicinity, but do not ignore the reality that there could be cross-loading on some of it and you will be taking your chances. I think that nearly all of this year's avalanche deaths, or most of them, occurred in times of "considerable" or lower overall hazard rating.

 

Upon checking the avalanche site, I see that you did not look at the applicable forecast. That one says:

 

 

EAST SLOPES WASHINGTON CASCADES....

Moderate avalanche danger below 7000 feet slightly increasing

later Tuesday morning through Tuesday night with greatest danger

close to the crest. Moderate avalanche danger slightly increasing

Wednesday afternoon, decreasing Wednesday night.

 

Moderate is better than "considerable," and I would probably head up there and have a look if that was somewhere I really wanted to go .... but BE CAREFUL. If anybody tells you "its safe," don't listen.

[ScottP]

A few years back I skied and climbed up Aasgard. On the return trip (below the outcrop mid way down and center in the picture), we came across the top of a slide that was 2 feet deep and probably 40-50 meters wide at the top end. We had skied up the center of it, before it slid, that morning. I think the picture shows a sluff at about the same spot.

 

[allison]

Matt or someone, can you please explain cross-loading? I am learning some things about snow safety and I don't know what that term means.

 

I would think that that slope would be very prone to avalanches from what little I know now. If Charlie goes up there, would it be advisable to dig some pits? Perhaps how often?

[proper]

Stuart range is east of the crest. And since Stuart is a very large peak near by, the avalanche forecast might be different than the general forecast for the east cascades. Large peaks, relative to surrounding peaks, tend to have unique weather systems. Use your avalanche skills to make the call anyway, don't take the general avy forecasts as the final say.

[iain]

I consider cross-loading to be wind transport of snow to lee sides along a series of ridges, leaving you with scour/loaded/scour/loaded faces. Can be deceptive and contribute to significant hazard.

[iain]

[mattp]

Ian's picture show's cross loading. The thing about it that can be deceptive is that a relatively small terrain change, such as a non-descript moraine or even just a little creek gully, can be loaded up and unstable even where the overall slope is otherwise just fine. I once triggered a very impressive hard slab avalanche on the south side of Granite Mountain in the spring, when the slope had rocks and grass showing through just about all over it and I had no idea there was any potential danger at all. Your classic lee-slope snow bowl is much more obvious.

[Charlie]

Not sure when Scottp pic was taken- itlooks like one could stay to the climbers left and keep to the trees and do a little scrambling to stay clear of any avi hazards- does this sound logical? My problem is that I'm not really going to have the luxury of just going in to check it out. I plan on leaving my car (environment destroying SUV) at the snow creek lot and hitchhiking to bridge creek- so I'll be kinda committed. Should I go for it?

[erik]

PERSONALLY CHARLIE

 

I WOULD NOT GO FOR IT...FIND A BETTER/SAFER ALTERNATIVE....

 

WHAT YOU LOOKIN FOR SOME EXERCISE OR WHAT??

 

 

[JoshK]

Charlie, the climber's left side of aasgard pass is deceptively more dangerous that it looks in that picture. the upper left part is quite steep and has been loaded before when I have traveled up the pass and found the center safer. The tree coverage on that pass is so sparse that it offers very little terrain anchoring.

[forrest_m]

Charlie said:

Should I go for it?

 

Charlie – it sounds like you are looking for someone to tell you it’s going to be ok, when what you’re actually hearing everyone say is “maybe yes, maybe no, it’s a judgment call that none of us can make from in front of our computer screens.” If you don’t feel like you can confidently make the call on the scene, it seems to me you have three options: a) get a companion with more knowledge, b) make a less ambitious plan that doesn’t take you through such unavoidable avalanche terrain or c) go for it anyway, figuring that you’ll probably get away with it. Many people choose C all the time, because they simply don’t know that a danger exists, and most of them are not killed in avalanches. That does not mean that you should ask us to endorse you when you do so.

 

In response to your specific question, the little trees you can see in the photo only go maybe a quarter of the way up the pass, and wouldn’t provide much protection anyway – much of what you see is slide alder mixed with little scrubby pines and boulders. There is no way that “a little bit of scrambling” is going to avoid the avy danger, though I suppose you could climb up and over dragontail via one of many technical routes… the rest of the pass is all scree slopes broken by steeper domes of bare rock. There are terrain features you could use to reduce your exposure to small slides, but they would be unlikely to protect you from anything really big.

 

[Old_Man]

Actually, I think Charlie's got a good question: How does a climber evaluate the risk/benefit of a given slope…and alternative routes…or activity choices? I think you’ll find both extremes here on this board…some folks might encourage you with a “go fer it,” and others will hedge their responses with conservatism.

 

Your actual decision will fall somewhere between the two extremes, tempered by your own risk tolerance. Like Erik says, it really comes down to your own goals, and what you’re looking for when going out. The only way you’ll know if you made the “right” decision is to…go out…or stay home or do something else. Both options will have their set of consequences, and depending on your skill in evaluating the choices, I guess it’s always best (for me) to err a bit on the side of being conservative. They say, even “avalanche experts screw up,” as they sometimes are tempted to cross uncertain terrain because of comfort developed through knowledge. In the long run, there will be plenty of opportunities to get out and do things, but a wrong decision based upon incomplete information (which is what you’d have under the current conditions), could end up in a fatal mistake.

 

And Forrest brings out a good point. Many people don't even recognize they're out in avi conditions, until aftewards--and their decision (or nondecision) is only reinforced because they "survived." Maybe that'll lead to further poor judgments in the future. Guess it's not a bad idea then, to go out with others who are more experienced--who are willing help you through the learning process.

 

Your post implies that you’ll be alone. If that’s true, if you happened to get caught in a slide, your fate would be sealed without any opportunity for rescue by a friend…who would be equipped with a beacon, shovel and a probe, and probably some kind of a communication device. Having a partner along too, adds some check and balance into the equation as well.

 

Good luck, and let us know what you end up doing.

Edited April 9, 2003 by Old_Man

[Charlie]

Thanks for the responses.

[Charlie]

I think it'll be a go- if it looks too sketchy, I'll just bivi at the lake and climb the pass at 4-5:00am

[Bug]

Charlie said:

I think it'll be a go- if it looks too sketchy, I'll just bivi at the lake and climb the pass at 4-5:00am

Good luck. Let us know how it goes. I will be up there next week so kick good steps! Actually, I am thinking of doing the Colchuck and then up the SW ridge of Dragontail. But the Colchuck could be worse than Asgard. It will depend on snow and wind. I am leaving Friday and will be in Gustav's Sunday noon to meet family. If anyone is interested in a twin solo let me know.

[lummox]

there are no dumb questions. just stupid people.

[Szyjakowski]

lummox said:

there are no dumb questions. just stupid people.

and then there is Erik

[Bronco]

for others interested in avalanche stuff, check out this page of links. I think the Gallatin Natnl. Forest Avvy website may be the best I've seen. I know Doug Chabot is one of the foremost avalanche researchers alive and is highly regarded.

 

check it out: http://www.mtavalanche.com/articles/index.shtml

[MysticNacho]

Hey isn't the gate closed at the Mountaineer trailhead for maintenance or something? That's a long hike.

[cj001f]

Bronco said:

for others interested in avalanche stuff, check out this page of links. I think the Gallatin Natnl. Forest Avvy website may be the best I've seen. I know Doug Chabot is one of the foremost avalanche researchers alive and is highly regarded.

 

check it out: http://www.mtavalanche.com/articles/index.shtml

 

That is a nice site! Another one to check out if your heading out that way is www.jhsnowobs.org

[Szyjakowski]

MysticNacho said:

Hey isn't the gate closed at the Mountaineer trailhead for maintenance or something? That's a long hike.

o yeah the extra mile in shouldnt keep Charlie away but only lazy arses like you... i wish theyd elimate the road all together and make people hike from Icicle creek both directions...probably lower the amount of users

[glassgowkiss]

you're not going to learn about snow and avalanches on internet. just take an avalanche class or climb with people with more experience.

[Szyjakowski]

Good Idea Bob!