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lummox

house buying in Bend

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Been looking and making offers on midtown houses (<$200K) for the last 6 months, but no joy. Any clever ideas for buying a home or property in Bend?

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all the kewl people live in prineville :rawk:

 

All the kewl people that don't have enough money to live in Bend. Lots of cowboys in Redmond. Don't know about Prineville.

 

But Washington and Oregon both have areas of urbanism, suburbanism, and ghetto. Throw in a little white trash and real estate gets pretty interesting.

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"no joy", meaning you're putting offers, but someone is outbidding you? I've been looking a bit down there, and the price range you're looking at is going fast. I think you need to figure out how much you are willing to pay, and then be ready to go up to that, regardless of the asking price. talk to your agent about escalator clauses in your offer.

 

I don't know of any "secrets " beyond just keeping at it, although You could look at the foreclosure market and look at distressed properties, especially if you can do the fixing yourself.

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Bend real estate trends

 

Much depends on the inventory, backlog and ongoing rate of foreclosures and that is typically a very localized neighborhood-by-neighborhood phenom within cities across the country where one small part of town sustains high prices while many others are decimated by foreclosures. The foreclosure rates depend on a couple of factors such as whether the state has judicial foreclosures or not (we don't) and how fast the banks foreclose in any market - too fast or too slow and the banks screw themselves.

 

ForeclosuresRadar

 

I take the following chart to imply that banks are witholding listing their foreclosure inventories in order to raise prices somewhat - or at least their inventories are not falling at near the same rate as their listing of the inventory. If the banks can sustain that prices will be up somewhat but those prices will cycle back down if they can't.

 

foreclosures.jpg

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i think another consideration besides "are we at rock bottom" are the current interest rates.

 

is it reasonable to think that the rates could go lower? the latest iteration of operation twist is over and priced into the market(?), so where can rates go now? and with banks enjoying the wide spread....

 

longer term, i think a reasonable concern is inflation with higher interest rates (could go very high indeed), so locking into current mort rates with real property seems like a decent move. look at your level of affordability, buy with a good 30 yr. or 20 or even 15 if you can do it, and hopefully smile in 5 years as rates double.

 

 

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I jumped into buying into Redmond - making an offer 10% below asking price which was already 30% below original listing. I think the value is holding, and I won't move in for a couple of years. It came complete with great tennants. It is costing me $0 to lock in the property I want - near Smith and Bachelor.

 

Know what you want, what you can afford. Housing is a tough investment if you don't want to live there.

 

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Been looking and making offers on midtown houses (<$200K) for the last 6 months, but no joy. Any clever ideas for buying a home or property in Bend?

 

Get a realtor who can show you REO only properties. We scored big time two years ago...

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i think another consideration besides "are we at rock bottom" are the current interest rates.

 

is it reasonable to think that the rates could go lower? the latest iteration of operation twist is over and priced into the market(?), so where can rates go now? and with banks enjoying the wide spread....

 

longer term, i think a reasonable concern is inflation with higher interest rates (could go very high indeed), so locking into current mort rates with real property seems like a decent move. look at your level of affordability, buy with a good 30 yr. or 20 or even 15 if you can do it, and hopefully smile in 5 years as rates double.

 

 

Completely agree. In most neighborhoods the fundamentals have all mean reverted and then some since the apex of the bubble.

 

My best guess is that the bottom was last spring, the downside risk is pretty low at this point, and moderate price increases will probably be the trend going forwards.

 

Inflation has been muted because credit contraction has negated the impact of monetary expansion (I think the best working definition of inflation is money-supply-growth+credit-growth/real-GDP growth), but when and if we start to see a significant private credit expansion then I'll be surprised if the Fed can/will be able to adjust the money supply quickly enough to keep inflation in check. I think we've passed the point at which our real output will be sufficient to repay our debts without inflating a substantial portion of them away, so the odds that the Fed will have the political will/incentives to keep a tight lid on inflation are quite small.

 

Looks like a good time to buy, and housing looks like a good long-term inflation hedge.

 

 

 

 

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