The Conservative Party

[Buckaroo]

i think the constitution's got a good long life still in it, so not certain what "the system collapsing" would look like in anything near the distant future

 

2 party and multi-party systems share pretty much the same lamentable limitations, but both are clearly superior to single party ones, so we're all just gonna have to make do, 'least till the venutians come down to deliver us all to dog's everloving grace

 

the constitution is shredded, private banks control the nation's money, private corps count the vote, search and seizure with no warrant or probably cause, indefinite detention without charge. These are all 180 deg from the constitution.

 

2 party is a duopoly, they both work for the exact same corps. Multi party is much harder for corps to gain control.

 

In the EU, they audit their central banks and the workers have 5 weeks paid vacation in the first year of employment.

[rob]

 

the constitution is shredded, private banks control the nation's money, private corps count the vote, search and seizure with no warrant or probably cause, indefinite detention without charge. These are all 180 deg from the constitution.

 

2 party is a duopoly, they both work for the exact same corps. Multi party is much harder for corps to gain control.

 

In the EU, they audit their central banks and the workers have 5 weeks paid vacation in the first year of employment.

 

[KaskadskyjKozak]

Memo to the Born Againz: Party's Over

 

 

Buh Bye

 

i think it's a bit more complicated than "buh bye".

 

Some, including you, dismissed future Republican relevance back in '08 when obama won, declaring the party "dead". Then they came roaring back in 2010.

 

Even Romney somehow managed nearly half the popular vote.

 

After the defeat in '04 everyone was saying the Democrat Party was dead. Over and done. Kaput.

 

[olyclimber]

One thing is certain: change.

 

and of course: hope.

[JosephH]

Some, including you, dismissed future Republican relevance back in '08 when obama won, declaring the party "dead". Then they came roaring back in 2010.

They didn't come 'roaring back 2010'; their strategy of obstruction in the House simply paid off with some mid-term house gains, but ultimately cost them this election. And combined with racially redrawn congressional districts off the 2010 census they'll likely hold a progressively slimmer majority in congress until at least 2020. But make no mistake, if they stay their current course or move further to the right they will lose even their House majority at some point between 2018 and 2022. As it is, they will never see the inside of the Whiteyhouse or a senate majority again in their lifetime the way they're going. That means we'll likely hold the presidency and senate through at least 2024 which will hopefully deliver us a Supreme Court majority.

 

With the 2010 House redistricting on racial lines and investing forty years in racism, homophobia, xenophobia and sexism in those districts it's hard to look at a county map of the nation and see how they are now going to get those rural constituents to suddenly embrace gays, blacks, and latinos (just forget women, that's now a done deal and won't be ressurected).

 

And the south? They definitely aren't going to embrace gays and minorities, so if the republicans do try to head in that direction they'll be telling the south to just stay home on election day. Add to that no one believes cutting taxes the wealthy helps anyone but the rich so no matter how you look at it, they're pretty much fucked and going to now reap the rewards of sewing forty years of hate.

[tvashtarkatena]

Being two years early in my prediction is a flaw I'll happily own.

 

This election was a tipping point for the GOP. Bigots become non-bigots through exposure and education - that river rarely flows the other direction. A perfect storm of social media, a new generation, changing demographics, and an undeniable GOP history destructive policies, open bigotry, obstruction, flagrant entitlement to privilege, and contempt for the American values of fairness, honesty, live and let live, and rationality has finally produced a definitive defeat for a myth driven movement, based on anger and fear rather than love and compassion, that was doomed to failure from its cynical inception.

 

Regarding civil liberties - marital equality, the inherent cruelty and discrimination of our War on Drugs, there is an absolute right and wrong. The GOP bet on Wrong and lost in the face of common American decency and rationality. The same goes for science versus myth. One is right, the other is wrong.

 

Given the undeniable direction that American attitudes are moving, we're not going back to the age of religious myth or bigotry, ever.

 

Let's look at LGBT rights, for example. After 30 defeats at the hands of voters, marital equality won four victories. This success will be copied across the country. At the federal level, DODT is dead, and DOMA has lost 7 in 7 in federal court. Full reform may take a few more years, but the religious right has lost their Waterloo, despite spending record amounts of money and turning out record amounts of their voters. Many of their faith leaders are now publicly recognizing this. Religion is going away - 30% of folks under 30 are nonreligious, but internal reform and a retreat from politics will come much sooner than its inevitable demise.

 

It's hard to bullshit an electorate that has so many instant avenues for civic discussion and obtaining information in their pockets 24/7.

 

Welcome to the American Spring. It's been a long time coming. Things won't change for the better overnight, but the river will continue to flow towards the sea, as it has slowly been doing for thousands of years.

 

 

Edited November 11, 2012 by tvashtarkatena

[Kimmo]

They didn't come 'roaring back 2010'; their strategy of obstruction in the House simply paid off with some mid-term house gains, but ultimately cost them this election.

 

i don't necessarily agree that their "strategy of obstruction" cost them this election; i'd wager their choice of candidate had more to do with it.

 

if you overlook the fact that a candidate such as romney took nearly half the votes cast, you're overlooking a key piece of the puzzle.

 

But make no mistake, if they stay their current course or move further to the right they will lose even their House majority at some point between 2018 and 2022.

 

like any adaptive organism interested in survival, the republican party will change. how many times in the past have we heard the death knell of a political party?

 

With the 2010 House redistricting on racial lines and investing forty years in racism, homophobia, xenophobia and sexism in those districts it's hard to look at a county map of the nation and see how they are now going to get those rural constituents to suddenly embrace gays, blacks, and latinos (just forget women, that's now a done deal and won't be ressurected).

 

your self-assurance regarding these issues is impressive, but predicting the future lends itself to prognostication much better than to science.

 

Bush got 44% of the latino vote. latinos are a pretty religious group, and if it wasn't for that pesky immigration issue, could easily be swayed into the conservative camp.

 

things change, joe. that's the constant. even more so than "racism", "sexism", "homophobia", etc. etc.

 

in 12 years we might have the "republicans" holding the presidency, house, and senate, yet barely recognize them as today's "republicans". and that could be a good thing.

 

And the south? They definitely aren't going to embrace gays and minorities, so if the republicans do try to head in that direction they'll be telling the south to just stay home on election day. Add to that no one believes cutting taxes the wealthy helps anyone but the rich so no matter how you look at it, they're pretty much fucked and going to now reap the rewards of sewing forty years of hate.

 

i think there's potential for the repubs to finesse these issues. it's gonna be tricky, but i think it can be done. after all, the south's gonna vote for someone. and this "sewing (sic)" of hate? i don't know man, you sound kinda angry, like you might just be hatin on somebody yourself.

[Kimmo]

Welcome to the American Spring. It's been a long time coming. Things won't change for the better overnight, but the river will continue to flow towards the sea, as it has slowly been doing for thousands of years.

 

you write good campaign speeches (in a flowery hitler kind of way), but i'm not sure i'd use a reference to the arab situation, considering how things are turning out over there.

 

the potential for the most vicious form of regression exists in humans, no matter how progressed we seem. i think it's important to be aware of this, avoiding frivolous declarations of victory over the "evil foe", without understanding who or what the "evil foe" is in the first place.

[tvashtarkatena]

Own your own ignorance, like the word "evil". Don't attribute it to me.

 

Thank you for complementing my eloquence, however.

 

The data speaks for itself. It long term stuff. Age of reason and all that.

[Kimmo]

Own your own ignorance, like the word "evil". Don't attribute it to me.

 

Thank you for complementing my eloquence, however.

 

The data speaks for itself. It long term stuff. Age of reason and all that.

 

words are only words. it's the intent behind them.

 

hey and yea, i'll throw my hat in the ring of progress towards the better. just not sure the "data points" you pick are the ones i'd use, nor the tone of self-assurance (arrogance ain't my thing, although don't take this as a charge), but those might just be personality differences, that's all.

[JosephH]

Look, the 2010 redistricting is on racial lines and as we just saw there's no way to appeal to those whites with an anti-immigration message during the republican primary and then turnaround and try to send any other message to latinos regardless of the level of "finesse". It's just not credible.

 

Ditto with the south on gay marriage and including blacks. No way, Jose. And that's the problem with the redistricting - the House is now locked down on racial lines and so those necessarily divisive house races set the tone for the overall election.

 

I mean, what do you suppose the 2016 republican primary is going to look like? Do you think the contrast between the 'moderate' right and the far right is going to be less than it was this year? Man, I don't think so. If anything, it's going to be way, way worse and a bloody mess. And the problem then is the same as it was this year - the gap between the primary messages and the general election messaging of the primary winner are just too much of a credibility gap.

 

How do you propose they get over that?

[tvashtarkatena]

The GOP will reform. A huge, dissatisfied faction of that party has been having that conversation for a while now. I've outlined what they should do already - what they will do remains to be seen, but it won't be what they've been doing to date.

 

On this we disagree - I don't buy the theory that the GOP is forever calcified in its present form. They may not be as data driven as the Dems, but that doesn't mean they're not data driven at all. The primary change will be a distancing from a religious right that has caused so much damage. In response to a decrease in political power, and due to changing attitudes in the face of the nation's continue maturation, the religious right will reform, too.

 

You can only run from reality for so long before it catches up.

[JosephH]

The GOP will reform.

Every sign is now to the contrary, the hard right are calling for a 'pure' candidate and not another "establishment" suckup sellout moderate they think Romney was. I think you way underestimate the depth of the philosophical tribal warfare just begun and going to be waged on through to one of the bloodiest republican primaries ever seen in 2016. We'll know soon enough how it's going to play out by watching how well Boehner corrals his caucus over the next year.

 

On this we disagree - I don't buy the theory that the GOP is forever calcified in its present form.

Well, 'forever' is definitely going to be until the 2020 census and two years after that. Given the current redistricting, the way the counties map out and the current republican hold on governorships and state legislatures we will definitely have to agree to disagree on the point - that redistricting is the cement that locks the map in place.

 

You can only run from reality for so long before it catches up.

Exactly, and forty years of peddling hate in combination with racial redistricting means they can't change on a dime or likely even by 2016. They'll be lucky to do it by 2020.

[Kimmo]

Look, the 2010 redistricting is on racial lines and as we just saw there's no way to appeal to those whites with an anti-immigration message during the republican primary and then turnaround and try to send any other message to latinos regardless of the level of "finesse". It's just not credible.

 

now look, joe, i disagree that this is what "we just saw". there weren't that many votes that separated the two candidates, so to dismiss the republican "message" and "strategy" out of hand is simply incorrect. it's not that black and white/ brown and white as you say. shit, if it wasn't for the ludicrous and outrageous statements by a couple of repub nut jobs at the most inopportune time, we might be bemoaning the presidency of nut job romney.

 

Ditto with the south on gay marriage and including blacks. No way, Jose. And that's the problem with the redistricting - the House is now locked down on racial lines and so those necessarily divisive house races set the tone for the overall election.

 

 

How do you propose they get over that?

 

ask pat rove. he said he's got the answer.

[Kimmo]

Every sign is now to the contrary, the hard right are calling for a 'pure' candidate and not another "establishment" suckup sellout moderate they think Romney was.

 

as much as i'd like to see this, i'm not sure it's gonna play out like this. maybe you're right, but there's absolutely no way that the repub party is obsolete and dead.

 

i think there are aspects of the repub party that need to survive, but i don't know how it's gonna happen.

[tvashtarkatena]

The GOP is dazed and confuzed right now after having their teeth kicked in.

 

They're response is anything but monolithic. One thing is for sure, the call for reform is finally being heard on the national stage. The whole bubble/group think circle jerk is over, at least temporarily.

 

They're not going to get another 1.2 billion for a national election without offering a different product, cuz the last one was DOA out of the box.

 

I know this first hand - I saw Mygyn Kylly basically tell Karl Rove he was full of shit on TV.

 

Yes, teabaggers may still be reelected by their loony districts - for a while, but those who refuse to tow the line and cause the kind of collateral damage we just saw may find funding from the RNC harder to obtain and key committee memberships harder to come by. Congress and the GOP have a few ways to marginalizing rogue members who won't be coached, even if voters won't. The 'party of the big tent' is actually quite authoritarian and centralized in its messaging and strategy - it doesn't tolerate self serving behavior of its members very well.

Edited November 11, 2012 by tvashtarkatena

[JosephH]

The whole bubble/group think circle jerk is over, at least temporarily.

The "things" rationale they are currently coalescing and rallying around speaks strongly to the contrary.

[tvashtarkatena]

I wasn't aware that O'Reilly was a party strategist or elected official. Thanks for the heads up.

 

More people listen to Rush, actually - but that doesn't stop a large and growing portion of the GOP, particularly its younger membership, from thinking he's absolutely batshit.

 

FOX is a business. They'll take the pulse of their audience and continue to feed them what they want to hear in whatever direction that goes - if the GOP suddenly decides to love da gays (and I predict they will pretty soon) FOX will start loving em, too.

 

Hey, they can always fall back on the Benghazi coverup. Seems like they intend to rerun that story for the next 4 years, if not longer. Half of their piece on Patraeus this morning was about Benghazi you know, cuz he's in the CIA and the CIA was in libya...LOL

Edited November 11, 2012 by tvashtarkatena

[tvashtarkatena]

See? The Kinder, Gentler FOX is already in action:

 

Arguing is Pointless

 

The pic next to this piece on the main page is a spiral galaxy...they still need a little help with their IT department, apparently.

Edited November 11, 2012 by tvashtarkatena

[glassgowkiss]

I think people who are sane in GOP are a MINORITY! I predict both chambers having democratic majority after mid-terms due to stupidity of GOP, not some greatness on the part of democrats.

Edited November 12, 2012 by glassgowkiss

[JosephH]

Given this week’s results, they said, conservatives will be even more motivated to reform the party. Richard A. Viguerie, chairman of ConservatieHQ.com, ended the press conference with one final prediction.

 

“Tea partiers will take over the Republican Party within four years,” he said.

 

Now if that doesn't sound like a willingness to rally around Boehner I don't know what does...

[prole]

I like how this whole discussion here and in the media at large revolves around demographic shifts and culture wars piffle. I'm sure elites like it that way too...

 

Erskine Bowles for Treasury Sec!!

[glassgowkiss]

Prole, I think demographics is shifting, that is a fact. Now we can argue how it effects elections, but the fact remains that baby boomers are getting older and vast majority of births are in latino households.

[rob]

and vast majority of births are in latino households.

 

you crack me up

[prole]

At the heart of the issue is whether or not the kind of trajectory we're on, the kind of governance we're seeing, and the current structure of power will change. Appealing to demographic shifts without addressing the qualitative aspect is simply another iteration of the Coke/Pepsi debate.

 

Jarritos, anyone?