George Bush - a strong leader...

[archenemy]

Back to Bush:

"In this job you've got a lot on your plate on a regular basis; you don't have much time to sit around and wander, lonely, in the Oval Office, kind of asking different portraits, 'How do you think my standing will be?' "

15 March 05

funny. do you have a link? i am curious what the discussion around this was.

 

Google is truly amazing and useful!

link for Archie, search the document for "wander"

It sure is! and so are html tags. thanx.

[JayB]

Hahaha. You get that drafing certificate yet? The proceeds from that should keep you well stocked in the obscure comic books, "Mother Jones" articles, and bad punk music that constituted the foundation for your perspective on the world.

Oh, how droll. He's emerged from the paneled room and Corinthian leather seats to treat us with another stellar stereotype stripped from the Wall Street Journal oped page. Jay, do tell us the joke about Ayn Rand, the Communist, Stalin and Roosevelt again!

 

Reading room with the WSJ on the table, underneath the brass lamp with the green shade, big leather chair with the footstool - add a troutstream in the backyard and a ski-lift a quarter mile away and I'd be in heaven.

 

But back to reality. Given that I deliberately left the investment company gig behind four years ago, and voluntarily took a big, everlasting paycut to work in basic research labs tackling cancer and HIV, and you work as an optical engineer in for-profit tech companies - it seems kind of strange that you'd constantly be chiding me with this stuff about chasing/worshipping the dollar. Should I hang a scarlet dollar sign around my neck while I listen to these sermons?

[sexual_chocolate]

I think it's more about chasing/worshipping ideology, a particular world-view that enables you to see red as blue (Hi Gary!) and disorder as order.

[cj001f]

Reading room with the WSJ on the table, underneath the brass lamp with the green shade, big leather chair with the footstool - add a troutstream in the backyard and a ski-lift a quarter mile away and I'd be in heaven.

I'm not surprised that the conservative finds the Yellowstone Club idyllic

[JayB]

I think it's more about chasing/worshipping ideology, a particular world-view that enables you to see red as blue (Hi Gary!) and disorder as order.

 

Delphic as usual, comrade. While I understand your point, it might be a useful excercise for you to descend from the lexical aether and express yourself in concrete terms.

[JayB]

Reading room with the WSJ on the table, underneath the brass lamp with the green shade, big leather chair with the footstool - add a troutstream in the backyard and a ski-lift a quarter mile away and I'd be in heaven.

I'm not surprised that the conservative finds the Yellowstone Club idyllic

 

Definitely the only place with rivers, mountains, and ski lifts in NA. Besides, if I had that kind of money I'd get a place in Whistler. Might be kind of a pain to have the WSJ delivered there though.

 

Good article on the Brazillian resale market for recycled mercury from the US on the front page today, not to mention the hedge funds piling into credit default swaps for MBS's. If anyone reading this is the proud owner of a zero-down, no-doc, neg-Am, interest-only "mortgage product," you can take comfort in the fact that Wall Street is betting heavily against you.

[MarkMcJizzy]

George Bush is a dumbshit.

[sexual_chocolate]

Delphic as usual, comrade. While I understand your point, it might be a useful excercise for you to descend from the lexical aether and express yourself in concrete terms.

 

Ah, speak to me of useful exercises!

 

While I appreciate your condescension, I'd rather you did a little ascending for once.

Come on little bird, fly! I suggest you wear blue when trying!

Edited April 21, 2006 by sexual_chocolate

[sexual_chocolate]

But heck yeah things are gonna get rough for all the interest only's. Any talk about how it's going to affect housing prices? It seems as though certain markets are so heavily saturated with interest only's that in a couple of years when they adjust, the housing market will flood with bankruptcies, with buyers unable to afford at today's prices with the then higher interest rate.

I am willing to bet Seattle will not suffer a negative price adjustment though, only a slowdown....

[willstrickland]

Well Cocoa...let's hear what the lenders have to say on the matter:

 

"Two-thirds of lenders nationwide believe a real estate bubble currently exists in the United States - and half of them believe it has already begun to burst or will burst in the next six months, according to the results of this quarter's Phoenix Management "Lending Climate in America" Survey.

 

A significant 93 percent of lenders surveyed expect an anticipated housing correction to result in real estate prices declining 10 to 20 percent across the country.

 

"In the minds of lenders, the housing bubble has moved from 'Loch Ness monster' myth status to an economic reality that could have a significant, negative impact on the lives of many Americans," said Michael E. Jacoby, Managing Director and Shareholder of Phoenix Management Services. "A year ago, 46 percent of lenders believed we were in a housing bubble. Today, that number has climbed to 66 percent - and many of them believe a correction is imminent and could lead to a drop in housing prices of up to 20 percent."

 

When asked when they believed the housing bubble would burst, thirty percent of lenders said it has already begun to happen. Twenty percent predicted it would occur in the next one to six months, and 27 percent thought it would happen seven to 12 months from now. Nine percent said it would occur in 2007.

 

Among the 92 lenders who participated in this quarter's survey, only nine percent said they did not believe a housing bubble existed."

 

Source: http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site...amp;newsLang=en

[sexual_chocolate]

Yes, but local conditions do play a role, and while the growth in certain locales has undoubtedly reached unsustainable levels (LA? SF? Miami?), Seattle seems as though it is still playing catch-up with other major metropolitan areas (which I believe it is moving towards).

 

I have a hard time believing Seattle would have an across the board 20% downturn affecting entry/mid/high level housing, but I also invested in the stock market in 2000!

[ZimZam]

The administration's priorities are totally wack. This war was constructed by neo-conservatives, who fell for the likes of Chalabi. The neo's then stroked Bush and Cheney's egos. Remember the quote, ["this man tried to kill my daddy."] Come on wake up. Once again fools who don't read history are doomed to repeat it. Bush's Vietnam. And please spare me the KIA count. Can you say amputees and PTSD.

[JayB]

There's something in the neighborhood of 2 trillion worth of ARM debt scheduled to reset before the end of '07. In most coastal markets mortgage-to-rent, mortgage-to-income, and the percentage of homes purchased by non-occupants have reached all time highs (40% of all purchases in '05). Equity extraction via HELOC and MEW and cash-out refis have reached all-time highs. The yen-based carry trade is unwinding, the value of credit-default swaps for MBS portfolios has been skyrocketing, and people are starting to get a tad worried about the fact that the valuations that underly the MBS portfolios reflect systemic appraisal fraud. What's it all mean?

 

My prediction is that San Diego, Orange County,

San Francisco, Coastal Florida, most population centers in New England, Phoenix/Tucson, Las Vegas, and a big chunk of Colorado will see rising foreclosure activity, ballooning inventories, and price stagnation through the end of '07, with real price declines occuring at various rates through '10.

 

Seattle is tougher to call, but the population/wage picture doesn't look terribly conducive to future appreciation. The fact that I've spoken to MD's who have ruled out Seattle due to the cost of housing should give the RE cheerleaders a bit of pause IMO.

[willstrickland]

First you get inventory build, then you get price drops

 

[willstrickland]

You want foreclosures, look at Denver. They just got a 30+% YOY increase. And we're just getting started. At some point, everyone who could afford to be in, is in...then who will buy. It's like sentiment indicators...when EVERYONE is bullish, sell because there's nobody left to buy and the top is in.

 

Seattle, like much of the nation, also has declining real wage rates. Even being the "best educated city" in the country. Median home price recently topped 400k in KingCo if I'm not mistaken and income/home price affordability metrics are at about 20yr lows.

 

Solution: Rent.

[sexual_chocolate]

Plus, I think not only general larger scale locale parameters play into the equation.

 

In Seattle, there were certainly neighborhoods that had a long way to go in playing catch-up with the general area price trends; these areas will perhaps be more immune to any downturn, since even current price levels are attractive compared to those houses 10 minutes away. People will continue to buy that which they can afford.

 

But even in the central areas, things aren't completely insane. My wife just called me and told me of a house in Ballard with a detached garage on an average-sized lot going for 360,000. Compare that to other metropolitan areas around the country.

 

I might be crazy, but I see Seattle with slow price appreciation over the next few years with entry-level houses; with stagnation and maybe some depreciation on mid- to upper-end houses.

[KaskadskyjKozak]

thread drift is cool

[sexual_chocolate]

ok fine. You gave the Iraq takeover a c or c+;

 

How could it have earned a d or an f?

 

Meaning: What metrics are you using, and how could it have faired worse?

[EWolfe]

Lighten up, Dood.

 

Gawd, you're not saving the World here.

[sexual_chocolate]

Hey, last time I checked, you had your own sandbox to play in.

 

Now don't bother me again; I have a world to save.

[EWolfe]

douche...err, I mean touche!

[mattp]

President George W. Bush was scheduled to visit the Episcopal Church outside Washington as part of his campaign to restore his poll standings. Bush's campaign manager made a visit to the Bishop, and said to him "We've been getting a lot of bad publicity because of the president's position on stem cell research, the Iraq war, Hurricane Katrina, and the like. We'd gladly make a contribution to the church of $100,000 if during your sermon you'd say the President is a saint."

 

The Bishop thought it over for a few moments and finally said, "The Church is in desperate need of funds and I will agree to do it." Bush showed up for the sermon and the Bishop began: "I'd like to speak to you all this morning about our President. George Bush is a liar, a cheat, and a low-intelligence weasel. He took the tragedy of September 11 and used it to frighten and manipulate the American people. He lied about WMDs and invaded Iraq for oil and money, causing the deaths of tens of thousands and making the United States the most hated country on earth. He appointed cronies to positions of power and influence, leading to widespread death and destruction during Hurricane Katrina. He awarded contracts and tax cuts to his rich friends so that we now have more poverty in this country, and a greater gap between rich and poor, than we've had since the Depression. He instituted illegal wiretaps when getting a warrant from a secret court would have been a mere administrative detail, had his henchmen lie to Congress about it, then claimed he is above the law. He has headed the most corrupt, bribe-inducing political party since Teapot Dome. The national surplus has turned into a staggering national debt, gas prices are up 55%, and vital research into global warming and stem cells is stopped cold because he's afraid to lose votes from some religious kooks. He is the worst example of a true Christian I've ever known. But compared to Dick Cheney and Karl Rove, George Bush is a saint."

[Dechristo]

Saint T'aint?

[Johnny_Tuff]

Say in't so!

[JoshK]

You want foreclosures, look at Denver. They just got a 30+% YOY increase. And we're just getting started. At some point, everyone who could afford to be in, is in...then who will buy. It's like sentiment indicators...when EVERYONE is bullish, sell because there's nobody left to buy and the top is in.

 

Seattle, like much of the nation, also has declining real wage rates. Even being the "best educated city" in the country. Median home price recently topped 400k in KingCo if I'm not mistaken and income/home price affordability metrics are at about 20yr lows.

 

Solution: Rent.

 

Denver is an interesting comparison. I don't know exactly *what* has been driving demand here because, as far as I can tell, the last thing Denver is scarce on is land. Granted, you have to move further and further out, but unlike Seattle (surrounded by mountains, water, and already way more densely populated) you can pretty much spread anywhere. People might think of the Rockies, but the city here is straight up FLAT.

 

But, alas, this is major thread drift. Let's get back to what is really important - discussing just what a pathetic pile of garbage this president is!

 

Good joke, BTW, Matt, I liked that one!