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GordonW

lillooet

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Does anyone know what ice conditions are like in Lillooet currently (last weekend)? Especially interested in Icy BC and Oregon Jack.

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from the lack of response, it seems like nobody has been out to brave the after-effects of the warmth. however, Marble Canyon is more Interior than Lillooet (which has been ridiculously warm), and Oregon Jack is high. Clinton has been pretty consistently below freezing for the past 3 weeks, then went thru a warm spell the past 3 days, but is now dropping back; see:

 

http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/forecast/trends_graph_e.html?wcl&unit=m

 

and the forecast looks nice and cold by the weekend:

 

http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?WCL

 

i'll bet both are climbable - i'll also bet they're not fully 'in', so don't bash them down if you get on 'em - climb delicately - let them form...

 

cheers,

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Thanks. I had been looking at the Canadian weather website for Clinton, and it did look like temperatures were dropping. I was attempting to see if someone had climbed there last weekend in order to get a little firmer info.

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I had been looking at the Canadian weather website for Clinton, and it did look like temperatures were dropping. I was attempting to see if someone had climbed there last weekend in order to get a little firmer info.

 

still no first hand info,

but the forecast is calling for a big Arctic outbreak about Sunday:

 

Clinton: Issued 4.00 PM PST Wednesday 22 December 2004

Tonight .. A few clouds. Increasing cloudiness this evening with 60 percent chance of flurries overnight. Low minus 5.

Thursday .. A mix of sun and cloud. 60 percent chance of flurries in the morning. High plus 2.

Friday .. Cloudy. 40 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 3. High plus 3.

Saturday .. Cloudy. 70 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 3. High minus 1.

Sunday .. A mix of sun and cloud. 60 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 16. High minus 13.

 

this has been confirmed to me by my buddy Jesse who works as a forecaster for BCTV. fact is, the 850mb forecast (about 1500m elevation) is calling for close to -20ºC by monday in the southern Coast Mtns.

 

winter finally arrives!

been a bit of a wait, eh?

 

cheers,

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ok don but...the $24, 000 question...based on your extensive experience...

 

how long does it take between arctic outbreak and climbable ice, say, in hope? seems like about 4 or 5 days.

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how long does it take between arctic outbreak and climbable ice, say, in hope? seems like about 4 or 5 days.

 

i'd buy that. "climbable" after only a few days will mean horrendous, but you cld get up stuff...

 

actually dru, you're probably better equipped to answer the question than me. you've seen it up close from Chilliwack for several years now.

whaddya think?

 

cheers,

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Well I was thinking of last New Years. There was nothing in, in Hope, when we drove up on Wednesday, and when we came down on Sunday afternoon, after 5 days of cold, stuff was in: Bridal Falls, Medusa, Mousetrap, Sumallo, Seabird etc.

 

I was just trying to decide if this forthcoming cold outbreak means its worth staying home and enjoying rare good conditions instead of making a planned Rockies trip. Think the Rockies are guaranteed though, so that's where I will be.

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Looks ok to me, -1 last night not getting much above 0 for the rest of the week.

 

With a elevation of 42 m that forecast might not be great, you may want to check this one out though, http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?WPR

 

A couple af falls out that way which will probably be in in a couple of days. If I wasnt heading to do some skiing that's where I would be.

 

Merry HOHOHO

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Hey,guys, the weatheroffice site has an entry for Lillooet too, why don't you quote that, is it for some nearby, but irrelevant place? If so wher does it say so?

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Hey,guys, the weatheroffice site has an entry for Lillooet too, why don't you quote that, is it for some nearby, but irrelevant place? If so where does it say so?

 

 

actually, while most of the raw data comes from Environment Canada, there is good sense to checking the Weather Network as well as E.C.

 

BC forecasts at: http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/cities/indexBC.htm

 

the prime advantage is that the WN actually takes the extra effort to forecast, say, small places like Lillooet or Clinton separately. something I've just learned from Jesse is that the EC forecasts are actually for REGIONS. so what u read for the "Lillooet" forecast is actually for Lytton, the bigger population centre in the region. "Clinton" is actually 100 Mile House. etc.

 

usually that won't make much difference, cuz the forecast regions are not very big, nor very disparate. however, Lytton does tend to be a touch warmer and wetter than Lillooet, which distorts the ice-climbers' view of what's gonna happen. and while Hope Slide actuals are "actual", the forecast is for Hope - not the best when thinking about Sumallo or Manning.

 

in all cases, on both WN and EC, note well that the "Current Conditions" are "real", not regional.

 

one of the big advantages of the EC site is the "24 Hour Trends Graph" blue icon beneath the graphics. while the forecasts are regional, the recordings are "true", on-site. this explains why you tend to see recorded temps a couple degrees C lower on the 24HR for Lillooet than what was forecast.

 

anyway, forecasting is a difficult art, so it's best to consult more sources than fewer.

 

enjoy your holidays, all...

cheers,

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so what u read for the "Lillooet" forecast is actually for Lytton, the bigger population centre in the region.

Useless Trivia Warning. wave.gif

 

Actually the reason Lytton is used by the bigger reporting networks runs a bit deeper (or shallower, depending on your perspective). Lytton is somewhere around 350 people while Lillooet is more like 2,500+, so in this case it's not based upon population. Lillooet didn't have a weather station until the mid-1990's while Lytton has had one for much longer. This is likely due to it's proximity to the Trans Canada Hwy (easier to maintain).

 

Also, being on the Trans Canada meant that people may have a rough idea where it was (this was pre-Coquihalla Hwy days), somewhere between Van and Kamloops. Therefore it became a transitional weather-reporting reference point between coastal and interior weather patterns. It is centrally located between the warm and wet Hope station and the dry, cold Clinton station, with not many others in between that would matter much to the travelling public.

 

Here's why Lillooet now has a weather station...

Lillooet and Lytton have always had a bit of friendly rivalry, esp. in all things weather. boxing_smiley.gif Lytton boasts to be the Canadian Hotspot but Lillooet has always claimed to be hotter and drier (incidentially neither is the Hotspot for Canada, the highest temp. recorded was in Yellowgrass, Saskatchewan in 1937 (45C)). However, they could never back it up as Lillooet didn't have a weather station.

 

So through a series of political/ letter-writing/ fund-raising efforts in the mid-1990's Lillooet finally got their coveted weather station. They could now squash Lytton's "false claims" of glory and reap the promotional benefits of being mentioned on the evening news. Tourists would be flocking to town, as you just can't get enough of that 40+C heat with 5% humidity ... rolleyes.gif

 

But it just wasn't meant to be; the news networks and their viewers had grown accustomed to seeing Lytton mentioned and had a rough idea where it was located (plus it's on a major travel corridor). Lytton remained on the digital weather maps while Lillooet fell into weather-obscurity, as a convenient reference station for currently ice-starved PNW climbers.

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thank you lyle, for the edification...

too true, of course. makes you wonder why the forecast centre hasn't been changed. bureaucratic inertia, no doubt.

cheers,

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...the forecast looks good (into minus teens ºC), but a week ago there was an even more impressive cold-snap forecast for right fzcking NOW, and it didn't happen.

arrrrgh!

i'll try to get better background beta from jesse tonite, and post what i can find out.

 

cheers,

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Don, that would be wonderful, thank you! Need to decide to keep or cancel motel reservation.

 

What about the Bridge Creek climbs?

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i tell you what, my friend, i'll guarantee you don't need a reservation in Lillooet at this time of year except a) if there's a minor hockey tournament, or b) when the darts championship takes place (first weekend in february, i recall).

i can't get ahold of jesse - skiing at big white in vernon.

clinton is hanging in around -4ºC to -6ºC, which shld be good for Marble Canyon.

the Bridge River canyon seems to get about the same temps as the Duffey Lake road, so probably is dubious.

i'm gonna drive for a recce out the coquihalla etc thursday - will report back...

and unless the recce is dreadful, i've just gotta get up there this weekend anyway. perhaps see you.

cheers,

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It was October and the Indians on a remote reservation asked their new Chief if the coming winter was going to be cold or mild.

 

Since he was a Chief in a modern society he had never been taught the old secrets.

 

When he looked at the sky he couldn't tell what the winter was going to be like. Nevertheless, to be on the safe side he told his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect firewood to be prepared. But being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, "Is the coming winter going to be cold?"

 

"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold," the meteorologist at the weather service responded.

 

So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more firewood in order to be prepared.

 

A week later he called the National Weather Service again. "Does it still look like it is going to be a very cold winter?"

 

"Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "it's going to be a very cold winter."

 

The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of firewood they could find.

 

Two weeks later the Chief called the National Weather Service again. "Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?"

 

"Absolutely," the man replied. "It's looking more and more like it is going to be one of the coldest winters ever."

 

"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked.

 

The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy."

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Whatya think is gonna be "in" during the middle of Jan? Guess it really depends on what's happening with the weather.

 

Thanks for keeping us up on the conditions!

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Lillooet is in.

Fraser Canyon is FAT

Hope is dope.

Quit work, go climbing laugh.gif

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Oh yeah the Rockies are good too but it is -30C and things break when its that cold blush.gif

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