another bogus gallup poll ...

[j_b]

so gallup again has bush ahead by 8 points. similarly to last week, gallup has a huge republican bias in their sample (this week they polled 12% more repubs than dems). such bias is not warranted: in recent elections more dems than repubs have gone voting on election day and there is no indication that anything has changed. are they trying to influence voters and demoralize dems? are they trying to set up kerry as the underdog for the debates?

 

as for the debates, anyone wants to bet that whatever happens the talking heads will say that bush won?

 

don't believe the hype. bush isn't in the lead.

[scott_harpell]

[jjd]

Gallup accuracy doesn't look biased (see link)

 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/default.aspx?ci=1258&pg=2

[scott_harpell]

2000 Bush 48.0 47.9 +0.1

[j_b]

not really relevant. these are the final surveys (likely put out hours/days before voting).

 

"On October 25, less than two weeks before the 2000 presidential election, [...] Gallup's national tracking poll showed George Bush leading Al Gore by 7 points. One day later, the Gallup tracking poll had Bush up by an incredible (literally) 13 points."

 

like in 2000, they are manipulating public opinion.

[scott_harpell]

JB... their prediction with a twelve point margin... bush was only 4% less than that in the actual vote... here is the graph

 

you can see he went from 52 to 48 percent. A whopping 4%

[j_b]

who voted for the last 3 presidential elections:

1992: 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (w/ perot which explain the diff with the other 2 elections)

1996: 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents

2000: 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents

 

remarkably stable, right?

 

bias in gallup likely voter poll for 2004:

GOP: 43%

Dem: 31%

Ind: 25%

 

hmmm ....

[b-rock]

Yeah no kidding, their last poll was 8% differential and they took crap for it (not in the major news outlets of course which still cited them), now they're at 12%. Scott, you are missing the point.

[Greg_W]

like in 2000, they are manipulating public opinion.

 

You have NO basis in fact in this argument. You can say it, but that does not make it true.

 

Sounds like somebody's getting scared to me.

[b-rock]

Greg, why else would they poll 'likely voters' with 12% more Republicans? Do you think they just forgot to check this?

[Bug]

Aren't you banned yet?

Read Zogby's polls. Only reliable source.

[j_b]

the bias in the likely voter sample is the basis for my argument. there is absolutely no justification for it.

 

in this election, i am scared of only one thing: manipulation of the public by the media. if you prorate the gallup poll for a more reasonable likely voter sample, kerry is ahead.

[Off_White]

Another interesting point is the underrepresentaton by younger voters in almost all polls. They ususally look at "likely voters" and only talk to people who use land lines as their primary telephone connection, two criteria that slant the sample. Given that there are 100,000 new young voters registered in Michigan and more than that in Wisconsin (two of the "swing states") it may be a considerable oversight. I suppose the effect is subject to debate, maybe they're all young republicans, but it may be a significant unexamined population.

[Bug]

Unfortunately, most of those younger voters will not make it to the polls. Of the people who do vote in 4 of 4 general elections, 70% are 45 or older.

18-25yr olds who actually vote make up an insignificant percentage of the voters who exercise their right.

[rbw1966]

What bugs me is that in spite of being against the tax cuts in principle, most of the Dems in congress lacked the courage of their convictions to stand up against them. Political suicide of course, but christ, what does it take for these guys to stand up for what they believe?

[j_b]

hopefully the prospect of a military draft will wake up some of the younger voters.

 

rbw666: i reacted pretty much the same way you did when i read about the tax cuts extension.

 

about the debates: Not-So-Great Expectations: Media's spin favors Bush -- again

[jjd]

this week they polled 12% more repubs than dems

 

Where is this number? I searched all over the Gallup website to find this number - no luck. Will you please post a link to your source?

[j_b]

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002881.html

 

"Here is the text from the email I got from Gallup this morning outlining the party ID breakdown in their likely voter samples from their two most recent national polls:

 

Likely Voter Sample Party IDs – Poll of September 13-15

Reflected Bush Winning by 55%-42%

 

Total Sample: 767

GOP: 305 (40%)

Dem: 253 (33%)

Ind: 208 (28%)

 

Likely Voter Sample Party IDs – Poll of September 24-26

Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

 

Total Sample: 758

GOP: 328 (43%)

Dem: 236 (31%)

Ind: 189 (25%)

 

Looking at this, again I have a simple question: how can anyone, especially USA Today and CNN, let alone the rest of the media take a Gallup national poll seriously when Gallup knowingly puts a poll out there for consumption with a 12% GOP bias in its likely voter sample that everyone knows does not exist in the country today or at any time in the last three presidential elections?"

[Alex]

I think the answer is that misinformation is still a very powerful weapon for both camps. Manipulating the media anyway possible is powerful for both Dems and GOP. Poll results at this point are going to show what the paymaster wants them to.

 

As an aside, I think the polls after the debate will be a heckuva lot more interesting!

[klenke]

j_b: Just recalculate the numbers based on weighted averages if you care that much. I'd do this for you but I've got to run to drink .

 

Moreover, what will you have to say for yourself if the next Gallup go-round has a distinct "12%" bias toward the Democrat side?

[JoshK]

Yes, the polls did awesome predicting the Dewey-Truman election !!

[ScottP]

From MediaMatters.org

 

•The daily Rasmussen Tracking Poll released September 7 showed the two candidates tied with 47 percent each among likely voters. In the Rasmussen poll released September 8, Bush had a 2-percent lead (48 percent to 46 percent), which is within the two-point margin of error.

 

 

•A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted September 3-5 showed Bush with a 7-percent lead (52 percent to 45 percent) among likely voters. But this represented only a small change in support for each candidate from the poll's previous results, which eleven days earlier showed Bush with a 3-percent lead (50 percent to 47 percent). The margin of error was +/-3 percent.

 

 

•An IRC International Communications poll conducted September 1-5 found that of "registered voters who are certain they will vote, 48.2 percent say they will vote for George W. Bush, 47.3 percent for John Kerry, and 4.1 percent for others or undecided." The margin of error was +/-3.5 percent.

 

 

•A Zogby poll conducted August 30 through September 2 (overlapping with the TIME magazine poll) showed Bush with a 2-percent lead over Kerry (46 percent to 44 percent) among likely voters. The margin of error was +/-3.2 percent.

[willstrickland]

Here are the most recent numbers from pollingreport.com

for a multi-candidate (i.e. including Nader/Badnarik)

 

9/27 TIPP Bush 45, Kerry 45

9/26 Gallup Bush 52, Kerry 44

9/26 ABC/WP Bush 51, Kerry 45

9/26 Pew Bush 48, Kerry 40

9/23 Time Bush 48, Kerry 43

9/22 GWU Bush 50, Kerry 45

9/22 Marist Bush 50, Kerry 44

9/22 AP Bush 52, Kerry 45

9/21 GQRR Bush 47, Kerry 45

9/19 NBC/WSJ Bush 50, Kerry 46

9/19 Zogby Bush 46, Kerry 43

 

But honestly, these nationwide horserace type polls don't mean shit in an election this close. Go to the LA TImes website for a cool flash electoral map linked to latest polls in each state.

 

I predict lawsuits in several states, riots in Orlando, Miami, Philly, and Cincinatti, and no winner declared until mid Dec.

[scott_harpell]

Everyone is in on it!!!! Huge nation-wide polling conspiracy!!!!!

[Skeezix]

I'm voting for Kerry.