Sooner. Probably much sooner. Both the reasons you cite are also good reasons for Harper to call a snap election while the Liberals are still broke and rudderless, in order to finally claim his coveted majority. So watch for an election call within a few days or weeks of a Liberal leadership convention (assuming Dion doesn't survive the leadership review, which must occur within the next year). Harper has no interest in allowing the Liberal party to regroup to the point where they can challenge him at the polls. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if he called an election for before the convention.
Thats a tough call...I think given his stance on fixed election dates he would get the political shit beat out of him for calling an election too soon (2nd one in a row). Canadians aren't in the mood for another election within the year and it might end up costing him. Then again, it might not.
He also needs time to shore up his support in Quebec and Atlantic Canada - his only realistic hope of forming a majority under any conditions. Because I wonder if the Liberals being broke and rudderless would be an issue...i bet there are 70-some ridings where they could run a blow-up doll and the momentum of the Liberal brand and Conservative loathing will coast them to victory (like Vancouver Center ;-)