Some historical precedents?
- The average winning incumbent has had a job approval rating of 60%. Indeed, every incumbent who has won reelection has had his job approval in the mid-50's or higher at this point. In recent polling, Bush's average approval rating has been 48%. President Bush must emerge from his convention having dramatically altered public perception of his performance in office.
- In recent years, when incumbents have gone on to victory, 52% of voters, on average, said the country was on the right track. Now, just 37% think things are moving in the right direction. Thus, President Bush must convince the electorate that the nation is in much better shape than voters now believe to be the case.
- Every incumbent who has gone on to be reelected has had a double-digit lead at this point.
- Following their conventions, the average elected incumbent has held a 16-point lead, while winning incumbents have led by an average of 27 points. Bush will need a very substantial bounce to reach the mark set by his successful predecessors.
- Incumbents have enjoyed an average bounce in the vote margin of 8 points.
- On average, incumbents' share of the two-party vote has declined by 4 points between their convention and Election Day.
'Adrift and without momentum'? Either way Bush is going down.