INTEL - things not going well in Iraq

[Jim]

The latest assessment was undertaken by the National Intelligence Council, a group of senior intelligence officials who provide long-term strategic thinking for the entire U.S. intelligence community but report to the director of central intelligence, now acting CIA Director John McLaughlin. He and the leaders of the other intelligence agencies approved it.

 

The estimate contrasts with public comments of Bush and his senior aides who speak more optimistically about the prospects for a peaceful and free Iraq. "We're making progress on the ground," Bush said at his Texas ranch late last month.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/09/16/us.iraq.ap/index.html

[Peter_Puget]

Jim –

 

Here is the money quote from your link:

The National Intelligence Council looked at the political, economic and security situation in the war-torn country and determined -- at best -- the situation would be tenuous in terms of stability, a U.S. official said late Wednesday, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

At worst, the official said, were "trend lines that would point to a civil war." The official said it "would be fair" to call the document "pessimistic."

 

I hate to break it to you but any armchair analyst could make the same general claim. Here is a more interesting exercise – (Watch out you may actually have to do some work!)

 

Deaths in selected months in 2004:

March 52, April 147 (Fallujah and Al Sadr uprising), May 88, June 44 (Transitional Government), July 61 August 71 (Operations against Sadr in Najaf)

Sources: April August

 

I am sure you can figure out how to get the other months.

 

I note that consistently the deaths are centered in the Sunni Triangle specifically Fallujah and in certain neighborhoods of Baghdad.

 

Is there an increase in sophistication evident when the deaths are analyzed? Mike’s input would be interesting to here regarding this. An example of increasing sophistication would be the cessation of suicide bombers and instead the use of volley-fired RPGs supported by automatic weapons to cover their flanks and withdrawal routes.

 

I am not saying things are rosy in Iraq but vague open ended statements like in the CNN report are simply bullshit. The key to “winning” in Iraq is to try to see things how they are and not via political lenses. To be honest I think that Bush’s team hasn’t been very good. Reading things like this

 

At a briefing earlier this month, a high-ranking US officer in charge of the zone's perimeter said he had insufficient soldiers to prevent intruders penetrating the compound's defences.

 

Drives me crazy. Again Mike's input on this is to mind far more interesting than some vague analysis. The deaths do seem to remain localized. Partially this is due to where people live but does that explain all the distribution? Have the insurgent's actions been growing in sophistication?

[fleblebleb]

Hah-haha, there is a quote in there by some Republican lamenting money not being spent fast enough

[Jim]

I notice you conviently forgot about the civilian deaths estimated at 10-12,000 now by International NGOs. Great - our military death toll is going down. That just shows we're getting better at crouching behind our green zone defences. We don't even have control of half of Baghdad nevermind the country.

 

When asked how long we would be over there Senator McCain quickly replied .."between 10 and 20 years". Does anyone actually believe that a stable democracy is going to come out of this? We will eventually tire of the cost in lives and money, and then an Islamic state will sprout up where there was not one. And the place is a terrorist magnet now when there were none there before. Excellent job in nation building.

[j_b]

Must read: Most senior US military officers now believe the war on Iraq has turned into a disaster on an unprecedented scale

[Squid]

 

General Odom remarked that the tension between the Bush administration and the senior military officers over Iraqi was worse than any he has ever seen with any previous government, including Vietnam. "I've never seen it so bad between the office of the secretary of defence and the military. There's a significant majority believing this is a disaster. The two parties whose interests have been advanced have been the Iranians and al-Qaida. Bin Laden could argue with some cogency that our going into Iraq was the equivalent of the Germans in Stalingrad. They defeated themselves by pouring more in there. Tragic."

[slothrop]

Jim –

 

Here is the money quote from your link:

The National Intelligence Council looked at the political, economic and security situation in the war-torn country and determined -- at best -- the situation would be tenuous in terms of stability, a U.S. official said late Wednesday, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

At worst, the official said, were "trend lines that would point to a civil war." The official said it "would be fair" to call the document "pessimistic."

 

I hate to break it to you but any armchair analyst could make the same general claim.

 

Uh, yeah, but there aren't any armchair analysts who get to read the classified intelligence report. So maybe the official quoted here actually might know what he's talking about.

[gotterdamerung]

>>>>At a briefing earlier this month, a high-ranking US officer in charge of the zone's perimeter said he had insufficient soldiers to prevent intruders penetrating the compound's defences.

 

 

Yes, this is true. If there had remained intact or existed a moderately trained military entity with skills in raid tactics it would have happened already. With the ability to clandestinely swim the Tigris and scale the T-Walls a small element could reasonably kill somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-20 Americans in the I.Z. with small arms and then possibly even escape. The IZ is porous and there are numerous possibilities for insurgents to penetrate the perimeter.

 

 

>>>Drives me crazy. Again Mike's input on this is to mind far more interesting than some vague analysis. The deaths do seem to remain localized. Partially this is due to where people live but does that explain all the distribution? Have the insurgent's actions been growing in sophistication?

 

The insurgency has been growing in common sense. You have to realize that head to head they will never be able to beat our troops. They are growing bolder and have been able to observe our movements for a long time. There are only so many roads that can be driven. So for them it is only a matter of a little more planning and opportunity. It's not really rocket science. It's a plan combined with opportunity and advantage. With our troops spread so thin it is an impossible task they are facing.

 

If someone had invaded THIS country all half assed like we invaded Iraq....well...they would ALL be dead by now. So the Iraqi's are nothing special. In fact they suck at everything. I've never seen a more half assed rabble.

 

It's politics and politicians that killed the radio star in this case. When we shot the shit out of them on a daily basis and treated them like dung they kissed our asses and nothing much happened. When we started pretending like the war was over and let's be buddies...well you see what happened. It just doesn't work this way America...war is war....war is killing...war is brutality....war is children dying...war is women dying...war is sure as hell is killing the enemy and making him wish he's never even been born. American's don't get it. They don't want to get it. They wanna watch MTV and spray on Cascadeclimbers and act like climbing Castle Rock gives you some corner on the market of having big balls.

 

There is a way in which to defeat insurgency, but the people dusting the white house seats with their asses will never understand or have the stomach for getting the job done. Like it's been said from everyone from Bremer on down. Saddam knew how to rule Iraq. With an iron fist and brutality. Iraq was never ripe for democracy. They are a bunch of third world monkey's who should be subjugated under an imperial banner. If you want to win in Iraq take off the blindfold or turn a blind eye at least. Quit acting like war can be sanitary and efficient. Let it be what it is...what is always was. If you don't have a stomach for Pinkville stay out of the business of fighting America.

[chucK]

Not like I know anything first hand, but from what I've read (now and before this war), War is hell. GD, here and always, with your first-hand knowledge you have been reminding us of that. I guess this is an "I told you so", but even before we went into this thing, I think anyone betting the farm on a quick, clean, evisceration-of-the-brutal-Saddam-regime, Iraqis-welcoming-us-with-open-arms, end-of-story conflict had to be pretty damn naive. Unfortunately, those that took us into this war, the administration AND the sheeplike congressional "leaders" didn't end up losing their farms. They're still selling this thing like it was a great idea, and the sad thing is PEOPLE ARE BUYING IT and eating it right up. Lame.

 

Sorry GD for maybe twisting your message. My point above is tangential to yours.

 

To address your point, you seem to be saying that we gotta continue this thing, and when we do, use strict resolve; that is, hit them where it hurts, and hit them hard, etc.

 

I don't reject your idea out of hand, but can your suggested tactics mesh with the goal of winning the hearts and minds?

 

Like you said, this involves killing lots of innocents. This surely hurts the goals of a hearts and minds strategy. Do you think trying to win the hearts and minds of the Iraqis is a fruitless task? Or do you think that while we will be hurt in that department by killing of innocents, that in the long run, the end goal of a "free and stable Iraq" will be furthered?

 

Or possibly, you may think the goal of a free and stable Iraq is just a pipedream? From some of your stuff I get this impression.

 

The above are all genuine questions (with the exception of first paragraph which was me trumpeting my political agenda). It's easy to "I told you so" the people that wanted to do this shit in the first place. Unfortunately we are all now stuck with the more important question, "what do we do now?"

[Off_White]

I don't reject your idea out of hand, but can your suggested tactics mesh with the goal of winning the hearts and minds?

 

I think that's the crux of the biscuit, war is an inappropriate tool for winning hearts and minds, and it's a mistake of the political set to think it can be used that way. War is really about death, killing, blood, guts, and veins in my teeth. It's a dominance and submission thing, and a clumsy instrument to wield in service of swaying opinion. If they wanted to to just change people's minds, it would have been better to pump 1/10th the funding into the advertising industry and let them do as they will.

[Jim]

What a mess. There is no elegant solution. We stay and wreck the place to "tame" it or bail and who knows what will happen.

 

"To occupy Iraq would instantly shatter our coalition, turning the whole Arab world against us and make a broken tyrant into a latter-day hero ... assigning young soldiers to a fruitless hunt for a securely entrenched dictator and condemning them to fight in what would be an un-winnable urban guerilla war. It could only plunge that part of the world into even greater instability."

 

George Bush Senior

 

A World Transformed, 1998

[gotterdamerung]

I think hearts and minds is a flawed concept. It has never really proven itself to work. If an agent chooses to align himself with the US he cannot be trusted simply because he is an Arab. If an agent chooses to align himself with the insurgency in theory he should fall off the map because with proper security measures in place he would show up on the radar rather quickly.

 

Unfortunately this is jumping the gun so to speak because Iraq has NEVER ONCE gotten to the level where "security" should be the concern. The concern should be continuing large and small scale military operations bent on capturing all weapons (at this time each Iraqi family can keep an AK-47 for home defense), destroying ruthlessly all pockets of resistance, and continuing to prosecute captured insurgents using methods akin to torture. I know this is not a popular concept right now, but the original concept of torture did not include a bunch of flaky reservists with minimal training taking lewd photographs.

 

I think right now we are engaged in a fruitless enterprise. I for one cannot stand the thought of one more American soldier being killed while jackasses like Bush play politics in an election year. I think by now everyone has made the seperation between the war and the politicians that started it. I think everyone understands that this is serious business and there will be ramifications from here on out for a long time. I think that the peace cause will not gain a foothold because there will not be peace with an ancient people bent on destroying western society for religious reasons. I think that common sense and a common sense of purpose and unity will have to prevail before we can get to a point where we can move forward. Right now the left sees the whole enterprise as motivated by $$$$ and the right sees the left as soft and unworthy of the new order developing. Well maybe they were both right in some ways. It doesn't mean we have to lay down and take it from both sides at the same time. We should not be concerned about the fraudulent concerns of the UN. A completely ineffectual organization bankrolled by the US and indifferent to the plights of the many genocides that have occurred during their watch. We should not be concerned with EU disdain. Rather they should be concerened with us turning our back on them in favor of developing latin America as a main source of trade and industry. They should be concerned that we will take our business home and to Japan and China. If Europe wished to align with Islam then so be it. They deserve one another. Several failing societies in bed together represent no threat to a strong and united US with the proper allies.

 

Iraq? Iraq needs to be taught a lesson on the world stage. Once and for all if the US wants to demonstrate leadership then show the world what we are capable of. This 'play nice' mentality is failing us as always. People are dying as a result.

[scott_harpell]

What a mess. There is no elegant solution. We stay and wreck the place to "tame" it or bail and who knows what will happen.

 

"To occupy Iraq would instantly shatter our coalition, turning the whole Arab world against us and make a broken tyrant into a latter-day hero ... assigning young soldiers to a fruitless hunt for a securely entrenched dictator and condemning them to fight in what would be an un-winnable urban guerilla war. It could only plunge that part of the world into even greater instability."

 

George Bush Senior

 

A World Transformed, 1998

You mean the same GB that bailed on the Kurds a few years earlier?

[gotterdamerung]

If you have any religion this might catch your eye. From the Koran...catch the scripture number.

 

Koran (9:11) - For it is written that a son of Arabia would awaken a fearsome Eagle. The wrath of the Eagle would be felt throughout the lands of Allah and lo, while some of the people trembled in despair still more rejoiced; for the wrath of the Eagle cleansed the lands of Allah; and there was peace.

[scott_harpell]

hoax

 

"But if they repent and keep up prayer and pay the poor-rate, they are your brethren in faith; and we make the communications clear for a people who know."

Edited September 17, 2004 by scott_harpell

[gotterdamerung]

You are correct! HAHAHAHAH...nice one Scott! You win the prize of the day!

[jjd]

There is a way in which to defeat insurgency, but the people dusting the white house seats with their asses will never understand or have the stomach for getting the job done. Like it's been said from everyone from Bremer on down. Saddam knew how to rule Iraq. With an iron fist and brutality. Iraq was never ripe for democracy. They are a bunch of third world monkey's who should be subjugated under an imperial banner. If you want to win in Iraq take off the blindfold or turn a blind eye at least. Quit acting like war can be sanitary and efficient. Let it be what it is...what is always was. If you don't have a stomach for Pinkville stay out of the business of fighting America.

 

 

Pyrrhic victory

a victory which is not worth winning because the winner has lost so much in winning it

 

http://www.freesearch.co.uk/dictionary/pyrrhic+victory

 

ethnocentrism - belief in the superiority of one's own ethnic group

 

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/Ethnocentrism

Edited September 17, 2004 by jjd

[gotterdamerung]

If we end up controlling the oil, defeating the insurgency and bringing Americans back home there will be a victory. People asked for the way out and this is it. Total victory. If you think your politically correct ass has the answer why don't YOU go over THERE and take a good hard look at conditions on the ground and let me know what you think afterwards.

[jjd]

 

Sir-

 

I have actually defended your positions in the past because you were sensible in your judgements. The post I quoted above was indicative of all the characteristics I quoted. If you really are as smart as you say you are, perhaps you could avoid writing as if you just rolled out of your cave. I was not attacking you personally, I was attacking what you wrote. If you wish to engage in ad hominem attacks against me, feel free. But please, do not send me any more personal messages of the sort you just sent.

[gotterdamerung]

Whatever. I'm oughtta here today. I don't appreciate being called a knuckledragger JJD.

[Off_White]

Honestly GD, you engage in personal slurs towards others at times, so you shouldn't be so brittle when shit slops onto your side of the kettle.

[gotterdamerung]

I'm working on it OK? I HIGHLY doubt there is anyone who would make that comment to my face. Not even in my business, in which people kill other people, has anyone ever disrespected me the way people do here. Forgive me if I have a problem with that. After 5 years, and I don't think you were here back then mod-man, it's still pretty hard to be thick skinned about this kind of shit alright?

[Off_White]

I understand, just trying to give you a jovial nudge to put things in perspective. Yes, you are working on it.

[gotterdamerung]

Sorry JJD. Didn't mean to trash you like that. My bad.

[Squid]

I HIGHLY doubt there is anyone who would make that comment to my face.

 

 

You've gotta love the the by-product of the internet: the bulletin-board tough-guy. Lots of people here talk a big game of smack on their keyboard- in person they're obsequious and eager to suck ass.

 

The smart-ass comments are expected, but too many people go way beyond the pale-just check the recent threads. Even in spray, there should be some modicum of decency. My 0.02 of pissing in the wind.