Serenity

But, both the top and at least the upper 1/2 of the western side are defined by a snow-slab fracture. The upper 1/2 of the sliding surface appears to be planar. The NWAC has been stating that 100% climax slab avalanches are probable given the dynamics of this snow pack. So I would say that it was a slab avalanche with the decollement being a wet relatively smooth grassy surface with possibly a surface hoar layer immediately above. The debris could be expected whenever such a large wet strata is involved in a structural failure. I would also add, that in a failure of this sort, as wether it is a slab causing a debris flow, or a mud flow triggering a slab avalanche is mostly arguing semantics. I went up and looked at this yesterday. Two guys were skiing down and stopped to talk to me. One of the guys said he lived by the treatment plant and witnessed the whole thing. He told me that there is a guy who has lived at Hyak for 50 years who made mention that when they leveled the ground under the lift towers that fill dirt was brought in, which was a compost of sorts. A slurpy mixture of old rotted tree stumps and moraine like rock gravel is the result going down the mountain. From looking at the event up close you can indeed tell it is NOT an avalanche, but was the result of total ground collapse underneath the snowpack. The hole looks more like a bomb crater than anything. The fact that there is a crown in the snow, is only a result of the underlying surface blowing out. I hope they shut the area down and build a gondola to the top of Snoqualmie Mountain.

And I guess it would be inconvenient to mention that the guy was a repeat felon who just got out on the drug and gun charges. So he was no angel either.

It's referred to as a 'double capture slip", it occurs when fine motor functions are disrupted by stress or heart rates that climb above 170BPM++. The officer clearly intended to draw his TASER, a less lethal means of controlling a non compliant suspect, but inadvertently drew his sidearm. You can see in the video the look of shock on his face when he realized what happened. Being a cop is a tough job, and the large number of criminally minded illiterate scum bags in the United States don't make the job any easier. I feel bad for the officer. He made a mistake, and he'll have to live with that for the rest of his life.

Pat, Fair enough. Hope that e-thug thing works out for you. See ya round twinkle toes.

No, I am talking to you directly, on this forum. Don't try and sidestep and tapdance. Look at how you speak to the other posters on this website. Look at your post above when YOUR personal crusade started going sideways. Look at how many people you insult on here with 'moron this' & 'asswipe that'. If you can't handle being put on the hot seat then maybe you better tone down your attitude here a little bit.

You got a rock in your pocket? I'm talking to YOU, and YOU only. Last I checked you have zero moderator pull, so don't go trying to pretend like you're one because you got called out net tough guy. You love talking people down, talking shit, then when someone gives you the chance to stand up behind your keyboard words you start calling foul. I think I've made my point again. You're nothing.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for letting them go. That's how they wake up one morning and find themselves dead. I'm just pointing out a few factoids in the process. Last I read Pat this board offered freedom of speech. You've certainly abused yours. If you have a fucking problem with me shit dick them man up. I'm stateside and pissed off.

I'll believe that 6 shots of tequila holds an integral part of your current euphoria.

And you base all this on the election of a junior Illinois Senator or is it something else?

Despite public perceptions the Gitmo detainees have been treated better than 99.9% of foreign war detainess in history.

The Guantanamo prison now has about 385 inmates. Records on 517 current and former detainees show that 95 percent have been members of or associated with al Qaeda or the Taliban and that 73 percent participated in hostilities against U.S. or coalition forces, defense officials said. The analysis is a response to a series of highly critical reports by Seton Hall University law professor Mark Denbeaux, which found only a small number of Guantanamo detainees who had fought against U.S. forces. Among the six detainees identified on Monday was Mohamed Yusif Yaqub, who the Pentagon said assumed control of Taliban operations in Southern Afghanistan after his release from Guantanamo, died fighting U.S. forces on May 7, 2004. Abdullah Mahsud was released only to become a militant leader within the Mahsud tribe in southern Waziristan with ties to the Taliban and al Qaeda. He directed the October 2004 kidnapping of two Chinese engineers in Pakistan, the Pentagon said. Maulavi Abdul Ghaffar became the Taliban's regional commander in Uruzgan and Helmand provinces after his release and was killed in a raid by Afghan security forces on Sept. 25, 2004, the Pentagon said. Abdul Rahman Noor was released in July 2003 and was later identified as the man described in an Oct. 7, 2001, interview with Al Jazeera television network as the "deputy defense minister of the Taliban," the Pentagon said.

http://www.mysteryrants.com/

Mystery Ranch as I'm sure you already know is the same guy who designed and sold the rights to Dana some time ago. IMHO Mystery Ranch is a step up the evolutionary food chain. Just make sure you get the made in the US of A Bozeman stuff and not the Camelback made in China product. I have several of the MILSPEC MR packs, and they are AWESOME McLovin!

What I would do is purchase an XBOX, play ski racing (on hard level) while eating ho-ho's, and repeatedly screaming "I am Shane McConkey bitch!" Don't underestimate the mental aspect of your training regimen my friend. http://www.gamespot.com/xbox/sports/skiracing2006/index.html

I'm not bagging on you that hard dude, and I am not criticizing your musical tastes http://alpinelite.blogspot.com/2006_11_01_archive.html Your political analysis based on songs lyrics came across as juvenile. How about that Leon Panetta? Way to go team Obama!

How old are you?

Where's your been there, done that summit photo?

I disagree. We go to great lengths, bend over backwards so to speak, to demonstrate respect for the culture. There is no underlying effort here to promote western mores on the locals. Instead what you have is an effort to promote independence, and security. This is the country in which the order to launch the largest terrorist attack on US soil came from. The idea is to remove the impetus for further such actions in the region. Believe me, we do more to protect their identity than they do for ours.

This is an often quoted lament from members of the SOF forces. "Not a Good Day to Die" is an excellent read into the mentality that permeated Bagram in the early days of the war.

Totally correct. Some of the embassy personnel never leave station. Certain military MOS's in logistics positions will never leave the confines of their base compound either. It's just the nature of their particular jobs. I was sort of ignoring that part of Ken's response, but I have spent hundreds of hours drinking tea in somewhat inane, but formal meetings with many people. I have also spent time in the countryside, always been a keen observer of the people, and the surroundings. There is a beauty to Afghanistan, that the underlying dangers seem to magnify. There are varying reports of the PRT's effectiveness, and like most things in life it appears to fall along the lines of personal relationships. All of the conventional services are, and have been, going to great lengths to finally shed their mantles of Cold War warfighting mentalities, and embrace the new paradigms of COIN and other styles of UW. It is interesting to observe this firsthand. In essence the SOF community got dragged into the head to head fighting, some of which they were suited to, and some of which their TOE and METL's were not designed for. Not all ODA's are running foreign internal defense operations, but this was the original premise of the Green Beret's mandate. To act as a force multiplier moving amongst the indigenous peoples as ambassadors as well as warriors. Their missions have become diverse, and now their special skills, when needed most, are unavailable due to many factors. Despite many years in country, the language barriers are still present, but many have adapted, and the gap is closing. The various FSO agencies seem to be operating, at least in my opinion, with less effectiveness than their military counterparts. I believe they are also adapting to the changing world, but I still run into some pretty green folks who have never been outside a station that wasn't plush and almost Colonial in perspective. Also, a lot of those staffers are females, and like it or not, the culture in Afghanistan is strongly male dominated. It does not look like they have any interest in changing their ways on that one. I'll write some more later, and try to define our definition of victory. We're somewhat back to Victorian-Edwardian era chaos, and although the center of gravity is often centered on Pakistan, the whole region is amorphous. An analogy would be like cutting the arm off a starfish. It will just grow another one. One school of thought gaining favor involves NOT occupying and attempting nation building, but simply gaining the concession from the Afghan government that come what may for them, that they will guarantee denial of any group which might desire to cause the west or the US harm. The government would be free to simply deal with these organizations as they see fit, with some oversight and advisory support I presume.

Presumably the end result will likely be political absorption of competing ideologues. A sharing of the pie. This is unfortunately not far off from the iterations of the past several generations. The catalyst which might break the mold is the use of modern communications tying isolated regions together. This is where Ken Ford sort of touched on the subject, but not in the manner in which it has to be fully evaluated. A modern road system would also significantly begin the process of breaking down regional and hence cultural barriers. The modern paradigm of asymmetrical style warfare; it has become somewhat of a live and let live environment where only the most heinous targets are actioned for complete servicing. The Rules of Engagement (ROE) are generally stringent across the board, and only select areas, and select units are conducting offensive style operations. The majority of the military, both the US and coalition forces, are involved in many rebuilding programs. All the way from veterinary medicine, to the establishment of modern legal systems, to key infrastructure such as modern telephony, digital communications, sewage, roads, as well as the full gamut of security concerns. The big picture is indeed HUGE. We are talking about very few people trying to mingle with and help a great many. And yes, there are some who desire nothing more than to be left alone. It is these people who are often caught in the middle. The US has a great deal of experience in these matters, but has had in many cases found itself reinventing the wheel, or learning those lessons on the job. It is widely known that the key insurgent sanctuaries are in Pakistan, and that Pakistan is a nation in deep turmoil. While not a wholly reliable ally, it is indeed a necessary one. With recent events in India, and the need for India to develop a response, the entire region has the ability go up like dry tinder.

From what I've just read you're basically at a level where you have read the excellent book Ghost Wars, possibly a few other sources that give a country profile, talked to some friends, and spent some time overseas. I think you have a good basic read on the situation, but it's not quite as surgical or simple as people would want it to be. I take some issue with your 'matter of fact' statements that read as regurgitated press releases from AP sources with names like Mohammad and Khalil. While there is validity to some of these reports, they in themselves do not paint the entire picture, and often focus on items that draw readers in to sell news. For a growing segment of the population, news IS entertainment. After all, truth is stranger than fiction as has been said. Some of the more mundane day to day victories paint a clearer picture. Let me clear up a few things. The Northern Alliance does not exist anymore. Those 'types', primarily Tajiks from the Panjshir regions were absorbed by the government or returned home. The amount of hardware for conducting warfare sent into the country of Afghanistan during the eighties is staggering. However, the majority of that weaponry was not well maintained, or was pilfered by various entities supporting the Jihad. Post 9/11 the US did not send vast amounts of weapons or munitions to Afghanistan. It has attempted to utilize and deplete existing resources. The Taliban was a Pakistani creation through its military intelligence arm often referred to as ISI. If they maintain a strong logistics ability it is often suggested that they are receiving outside support. The Taliban IS a strong insurgency, but not as strong as say the Viet Cong during the Vietnam conflict. The Viet Cong were largely defeated during the Tet Offensive during the Lunar New Year. The Taliban suffers repeated defeats militarily every time it masses. They have had some success, and there is some increasingly fierce fighting along the border. No one is denying any of that. To gain better comprehension of the issue with insurgency I suggest reading "The USMC Small Wars Manual" and "The Bear Came Over The Mountain" by Lester Grau. However, understand that the Soviet War does not bear any resemblance to the current situation. It was a unique war, and the Soviets were not prepared to fight the type of warfare they found here. Also know that I have heard Afghans say that things were 'better' during the Soviet era, probably because the country was not as devastated as it is now. The nineties civil war did more to destroy the infrastructure than the Soviet Jihad. This is not in reference to the effort of ISAF and the US to create a better life in Afghanistan. The current situation is probably closer to the situation the British Empire encountered in the 1800's. This is a link where you can download a free .pdf version of Lester Grau's study taken from vignettes found in the Soviet War College archives. http://www.ndu.edu/inss/books/Books%20-%201996/Bear%20Went%20Over%20Mountain%20-%20Aug%2096/BrOrMn.pdf

I lived in Doha for a few months. I don't think you are going to find much in the way of climbing there. Take up rally racing.

Not everyone who is into the outdoors has to fall into your definition of what an outdoorsmen should be. Stereotyping is a sad way to go through life. If you have been paying attention to the President Elects platform, an arguably nominal champion of liberal type causes is wholly advocating the reversal of dependence on FOREIGN energy resources. While advocating the exploitation of national resources, simultaneously advancing the study and implementation of alternate energy resources. This is laid out succinctly in "Change We Can Believe In" by President Elect Barack Obama. This in effect unties us from unfavorable foreign policies, such as our lame duck relationship with Saudi and OPEC. With the correlative effect of allowing the US to remove forward deployed US military ad and intelligence assets in the SW Asia and Middle Eastern regions.

What I know about this place is because I am here, and because I've been here for 4 straight years. The way you tell it, based on 2nd or 3rd hand knowledge holds a small amount of truth, but in general it is alarmist bullshit rhetoric. Stop stink bombing this place with defeatism. The problem with 'your friends' is that a lot of them are short timers, marking time until they move out to their next USAID assignment or move to a plush embassy in Europe. Or they come in here with expectations which are unrealistic. They won't be here long enough to make a difference, so in their heads it's a done deal. Do they think they are going to defeat the Taliban with the information in their cell phones? How is that making a difference. In the business we call people like that REAR ECHELON MOTHERFUCKERS. You have to get out amongst them every day, go a little native so to speak. You have to have character, commitment, and spine to make this place work, or to get inside the head of this place. It's never going to be Dubai, and right across the border is a haven of nutters intent on subjugating everyone and everything to some arcane law which bears no resemblance to decency or modernity. You're dealing with caveman. How do I know that? Once again, because I am here and have been here long enough to have earned a masters degree in US/Afghan relations. Good luck with your opinions, but I have to raise the bullshit flag on some of it. This is a FIFTY year deal, not a 'were going to tidy this thing up in 2-3 years". Mistakes were made, mistakes continue to be made. However, with some spine things will get done here, just know it's NEVER going to be up to a western standard. Don't expect such.