rob

Guys -- badass. Dave, great to see you getting these bold objectives ticked off! It must have been pretty rad having that snowmobile -- Dan and I tried something like this once but we skied up all that road, ugh

in this analogy, the M's would be the women's team? lol oh shit, is that disrespectful? wait, can I still swear? I don't see a lot of swearing in the NY Times....

You guys are being so disrespectful. Please review the rules! Thanks, Rob

3rd/4th class along the standard route

sorry to miss it! Turns out my daughter had a concert that night. Also, turns out I'm not very good at planning. See you next time!

I'm out. You guys will have to soldier on without me.

Bikes!!

+1, I've been questioning the very premise of this entire thread from the beginning. It's only spray that is down

Anyway, I know I've certainly developed a healthier dose of pragmatism and caution since getting older and seeing people die in ways that could have been me. I was involved in an avalanche recovery a few years into my "climbing career" and it changed my outlook permanently. Re: head game, I think that's really the meat of the matter. Some people can take all of their fear and stuff it into their back pocket for later (a technique tvash taught me) and some can't. That's probably the difference between a great climber and an amateur. I wouldn't know I find as I get older, the amount I can stuff into that back pocket gets smaller and smaller.

All I ask for is a good IPA to be available. Or three. We're meeting at Chuck's Hop Shop this time, right? They won't let you down

Found!

Group of three looking for one more, 9's and "easy" 10's (ha ha). Send PM

It's okay, Pat. You can't be right about everything, even if it makes you really butt-hurt when you're wrong. I can understand that for sure. You can keep acting like a dick though, if you want -- i'm not going to feel bad trying to explain the sky is blue to a grouch. Don't you know bullying me doesn't work by now, though? Anyway, Cheers!

"5% might be low if you don't do it very often"? the number of times you take a 5% change risk doesn't change the odds of that individual risk, though nevermind bro Either you don't get it, or we're talking about different thinkgs or something. I'll take the high path! Obviously the longer you engage in risk activity, the greater number of times you roll the dice. The odds of the roll itself don't change just because you've rolled the dice a bunch of times before, though. Semantics, I guess. Carry on

You love to argue I like that about you. My point is that the number of times you've made a 95% move has nothing to do with the odds of making the next 95% move. Stats 101! a 95% move made after 20 years of climbing is just as 95% as the very first time you made it. The odds of going 20 years without a 5% chance of failure are smaller, but when you actually make the move it doesn't matter how many times you tried before -- your odds aren't somehow worse because you've never had your 5% failure yet. This is clearly not the same as your original statement, which I'm willing to allow you misspoke about and will not even bother quoting. but if you want to measure penis size, I'm game lolz. How do I upload pictures again?

Sure, the probability of flipping a coin heads every time 50 times in a row is small, but *everytime* you actually flip it, it's still 1/2 -- the previous number of flips no longerinfluences the outcome. Look it up. A 95% move will always be 95%, while actually making the move, regardless of previous history. Should I show a proof?

Wednesday is the new Thursday

yeah, but once you make the move, the probably of the past moves resets to 1 -- at the time of execution, the odds of making the 95% move are 95% every time you make the move, regardless of how many times you made the move before. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistically_independent The question is, is 95% good enough for you? That's the rub

I wore my cc tshirt today whilst doing a plumbing job. Seemed appropriate

Poly filter media! Inverted. I don't geek out about temps or grind (fine) but prefer Stumptown or Lighthouse or Herkemer beans.

Chuck's hop shop on 85th

I had no idea there were so many women lurking on this site! It's really good to see. Thanks for coming out everyone!

Having read the Old Testament, I'm pretty sure that God's asshole status was well confirmed long before Ivan had anything to say about it