What about false positive reinforment? any thoughts? You do something that has moderate risk over and over and since nothing bad happens, you push that risk higher and higher... eventually it catches you.
We all know this, but the old timers all seem to be pretty bold on avi slopes... "I've been on stuff like this 100 times, never had an avi yet!"
The insurance example is totally bogus. Insurance companies make money because they pay out less than they recieve, based on their thinking, you should never get insurance because the odds are, you're losing money when you pay them money.
But really almost all of us get insurance because we're not willing to be on the losing side of that gamble (2 broken legs and no insurance ---> total bancrupt)