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Posted

The safest time to climb is while you are staring at your computer. The potential for leader, rock, or ice fall or an avi is greatly minimized.

 

Actually, with the shit ton of snow recently, the strong winds and their corny formations and the forecasted pinnapple express about to hit, slide potential will remain high. In the least it will suk to slog up there so why even consider it.

 

Pray to the weather god for a long term high pressure system.

 

 

Posted
When is it safest to climb in winter? Really I suppose I mean, how long does it take for the falling snow to turn into a reliable snow pack and reduce avy danger?

there is no simple answer to that question - basically, watch the avi forecast (there's a link to it somewhere on this site) and proceed w/ caution when in the hills - generally though, here in the nw, avi conditions subside pretty quickly

Posted (edited)

http://www.nwac.us/

 

The snow needs some warm days and some cold days to help the snow layers crystalize and bond. That said, the deep layers may never warm and cool, leading to a very deep avalanche when the layers collapse. This is what happened last year around the NW when the 100 deg May weekend happened. There were nearly ground level avalanches all over, with a huge one inbounds at Whistler. Deep avalanches are hard to forecast.

 

Bottom line, it is a risk you take in winter in the mountains. Take an avy course. It may save your life.

 

As a side note, Northwest Avy danger this weekend is forcasted to move into EXTREME DANGER. Stay home.

Edited by 111
Posted

You're right. That's also sorta what caused the valentine's day avalanche we had at Baker back in the big snow year. I was there when this happened and it was actually a perfect example of what you just mentioned above. 14-day storm cycle, and then a short warming trend above and around freezing. I dug a pit that day right by chair 8 and we couldn't see a damn thing - because people don't dig 15-foot deep pits. It's key to observe weather/conditions over time.

 

I can't explain this one enough. It was an effin' monster of a slide.

 

http://www.nwac.us/documents/accidents/1998-1999/mbk_accident_report21499.htm

 

nwac.us is your buddy, for sure. I've got that bookmaked everywhere.

 

Use NWAC's forecasting plus observations from people that have been where you plan to go. Cross-reference everything.

 

The guideline is that you should pay close attention to the changes in weather patterns and their durations. For example, note when temps pop up above freezing and back down again. Just monitoring melt-freeze cycles will give you an idea of what's getting buried and where it lies in the snowpack. There - that's one of the 998,238,392,297 ways you can figure out avalanche danger.

 

Also, you're going to need to make your own observations when out and about. Direct observation is usually a large part of forecasting for the slopes you are about to be on.

 

Like he said, take an avy course because it's so much more than can be conveyed here.

Posted

Seconds and thirds on "take an avy course", PLUS, once you've gotten your training for Level I, you want to progress on to level II and III if you intend to spend much time in the backcountry. It's not cheap, but then what is your life and the lives of your friends worth? Good avy training is a bargain at the price. Actually, this very kind of snow season we're having, is an excellent opportunity for learning and advancing your understanding of a wide variety of avalanche-prone conditions. The snowpack out there is a textbook example of everything under the sun and then some.

 

And, PLUS PLUS, you want to practice,practice,practice. Any good avy course,even a Level I, should include enough hands-on with the various kinds of pits, snow crystal analysis, beacon practice,etc., to enable you to conduct your own practice, with the backcountry partners you'll be going with. Everybody needs to be fully equipped with beacon, probe, shovel, analysis kit, and all need to know how to use them with expertise. If someone gets buried, you have only minutes to locate them and dig them out.

 

The most important thing is always, to take responsibility for your own safety, don't just leave it up to the group "expert". Even genuine experts can get caught, as demonstrated a couple years ago, sadly, during a trip guided by the famed Swiss guide Rudi Beglinger of Selkirk Mountain Experience near Revelstoke, B.C., on the Durrand glacier.This is one of the premier guide services and heli ski outfits in the NW. They lost several people on what was considered a normally very safe slope. Nor was it a very large slide. It's a common misunderstanding that the only dangerous slopes are the big ones. A little hill 8 or 10 feet high above a swale may not look like much, but it can certainly hold enough snow to completely bury and suffocate you.

 

Another misconception is that you're safe if you're not actually on the slope, or if you're well out of the runout path. Well, surprise,surprise: Famed climber Alex Lowe was killed by a giant avalanche that traveled almost 5000 feet of elevation over several miles; they saw it break above them, and by the time they realized they were in it's path, they couldn't get out of the way in time. In the late 80's a massive slide at Utah's Alta ski area "escaped" the out-of-bounds area, jumped a huge ridge like water slopping out of a bathtub, and came smashing down onto a long-established ski run, snuffing out the lives of two snowboarders. Later that same year in Upper Logan Canyon,Utah, an immense slide traveled fully 12(yes,twelve) miles before finally jumping and burying the Logan Canyon highway 40 feet deep and fetching up against the opposite wall of the canyon. We went up to see the debris pile once the road was cleared. It was full of deer carcasses which looked as if they'd been through a meat grinder, chunks of trees about 3 or 4 feet long, many almost 2 or 3 feet in diameter, with all the bark stripped off and all the branches snapped off short, and boulders the size of cars and small houses. Very,very impressive. If you think I'm trying to scare you, may I hasten to assure you that I am.

 

Get all the knowledge and training you can, and when the NWAC says the avalanche danger is high to extreme, stay the hell out of the backcountry. Even moderate avy danger is plenty of reason to modify trip plans to less risky areas. An avalanche is an avalanche is an avalanche, no matter what the conditions were rated, and you're still just as dead or seriously injured under a moderate forecast as you would be under an extreme.

Posted

EXTREME in a nutshell...(from nwac, for tues-thurs)

 

In any case, some slides should run full depth and range

up to 6 to 10 feet deep or more, with some running full

path distance, expanding or extending current paths and

destroying mature timber. Note that while some very large

avalanches are expected, even small slides may produce

injury or death. In some ways, extreme danger does not

adequately emphasize the extent of the anticipated

avalanche potential. Back country travel near or on

steeper snow covered terrain should be avoided, and

travelers should confine travel to flat terrain well away

from avalanche path runouts.

Posted

thanks a lot for the responses. do you guys know of a good outfit in oregon to talk with about avi cert? I'm really interested in having spending a lot of time on the slopes and want to be as safe and informed as possible.

Posted

I've taken the Mountain Savvy Level 1 course and can vouch for it being worthwhile also. I learned quite a bit from the class and would recommend it. Also, three sisters backcountry access does a Level 1 AAIRE class, though I haven't taken it. Here is the link:

 

http://3sbca.com/classes/avalachelvl1.htm

 

I've found two books to be very valuable resources as well. The first is "Staying alive in Avalanche Terrain" by Bruce Tremper. This is an excellent book that I would recommend owning. The second is "The Avalanche Handbook" by The Mountaineers. I'm partway through it right now, and it is also good. Good luck!

Posted (edited)

The PSU Course is done by Three Sisters Backcountry, and they have other dates, but they may be doing those down by Bend... This seems like a more thorough course- 3 days or 24 hrs of class...

 

Edit: I meant more thorough than the 2-day class at Mtn Savvy, not the PSU class (same thing).

 

http://3sbca.com/classes/avalachelvl1.htm

 

Edited by jclements
Posted

Several people have already mentioned, but I also recently attended a MountainSavvy course with Glen Kessler and his crew and want to drop a plug here for him. I definitely felt like I got more than my money's worth. Glen is top notch, and has been at this in the PNW for a while.

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