billcoe Posted January 12, 2008 Posted January 12, 2008 10 years ago, 1997, in Nepal, hiked to the top of Gokyo Ri with my brothers and our friends Rick and Deb. As we're gazing out at Everest, I see that there is a moraine damn holding back a lot of water, perched right over the lil town of Gokyo. I bet, that within 10 years, that the lateral moraine would break, resulting in a mini flood. Bet 2 people $500 each, at 2 to 1 odds. So if I lost, I would pay them each $500, and if they lost, they would each pay me $1000. I must have been high. (OK it was over 18,000 feet and I was trashed at the time, so I guess I was.) @2 years later I read that some Swiss Do-gooder organization had mapped and was going to do site remediation to fix this exact issue which they had identified in 40 different locations in Nepal (they didn't detail Goyko specifically). Turned out to be a common issue as these huge glaciers throughout the Himalayan range melted and receded and the moraines filled with water. Anyway the 10 years ended in September and Rick, one of the bettors, was kind enough to let me off the hook - sort of, all I had to pay out was dinner at El Gaucho for everyone. We finally got all our schedules sorted out and got together for a wonderful dinner and excellent time last night. Cost of dinner for 5, just under $600. Actually worked out great as we had a great time together, I got a diner out of it, and I saved $400. My brother reminded me that I'd lost another bet the same trip. On the flight home, when I'd said that gold prices might drop to as low as $270 an ounce, he (eventually) wrangled a bet on that one, claiming they wouldn't. He was sweating it as they hit a low of $272 an ounce, but I lost, and bought him an ounce of gold to pay it off. Cost = $280 on the money. Last night he proposed the same bet: except the bet was loser pays an ounce of gold to the winner, and the price (he was betting that it would) would exceed $1000.00 an ounce. I declined. Took a while to wise up, but even an old dog can learn new tricks. Quote
wayne Posted January 12, 2008 Posted January 12, 2008 I will bet you the Smith guide will be out within a year , Bill Nice to see your integrity in a forgetful world. I have been curious about gold myself. It could be the new real estate Quote
ZimZam Posted January 12, 2008 Posted January 12, 2008 I have been curious about gold myself. It could be the new real estate. I saw something the other day about how silver prices were increasing due to China's demand for the precious metal. It was an infomercial. Worth investigating their claims though. Quote
Bug Posted January 12, 2008 Posted January 12, 2008 The "value" of precious metals do have an intrinsic aspect but watch out for the effect of the dollar. You can play it well if you are aware of the relationship but when EVERYTHING is as volitile as it is right now, you really want to watch your variables. Quote
sexual_chocolate Posted January 12, 2008 Posted January 12, 2008 i'm betting on the stronger financial companies (citibank especially), with a three year window. I'll wager that citibank will triple in the next 3 years. I can't see those types of returns from precious metals, or any commodities, without much personal time involvement.... Quote
billcoe Posted January 12, 2008 Author Posted January 12, 2008 i'm betting on the stronger financial companies (citibank especially), with a three year window. I'll wager that citibank will triple in the next 3 years. I can't see those types of returns from precious metals, or any commodities, without much personal time involvement.... Nice call SC, I think that the dividend return on Bank of America right now is over 6%, and the upside is better than metals as the sub-prime issue gets resolved. Don't jump on the bus after everyone else already jumped on and it's left the building. Look for the next bus and diversity, that way if you make an error on one... Back when gold was $280 an ounce, as it cost over $300 to pull it out of the dirt on average, that was an easy call long term where it would go once the Bank of England finished selling off. Now that it's $900 an ounce, you are guessing strictly on speculation, ie, that a greater fool will show up and pay more. However (I have not looked at this figure currently so it's a guess) if on aggregate, the cost to pull it from the earth is @$400, can you suspect what the supply and demand curve effect will be...eventually? AT some point, the Arabs will quit buying with all the extra oil money they have laying around. Watch where the herd is running and head the other direction is still not bad advice. Quote
tvashtarkatena Posted January 12, 2008 Posted January 12, 2008 I have been curious about gold myself. It could be the new real estate. I saw something the other day about how silver prices were increasing due to China's demand for the precious metal. It was an infomercial. Worth investigating their claims though. FYI: Gold just hit an all time high. Quote
kevbone Posted January 13, 2008 Posted January 13, 2008 I bet you Bush will suspend the constitution (wait he already did that) and suspend elections and try to stay in office. Quote
KaskadskyjKozak Posted January 13, 2008 Posted January 13, 2008 I bet you Bush will suspend the constitution (wait he already did that) and suspend elections and try to stay in office. wow, gee, really, do you "bet" that? Quote
billcoe Posted January 13, 2008 Author Posted January 13, 2008 I bet you Bush will suspend the constitution (wait he already did that) and suspend elections and try to stay in office. I'd put a massive amount of money that you are wrong and elections will he held on the date and time scheduled. Quote
billcoe Posted January 13, 2008 Author Posted January 13, 2008 FYI: Gold just hit an all time high. AAPL is the new gold? Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.