La Nina....

[Chad_A]

Looks like our glaciers (and ski resorts) might get a good reprieve this year.

 

"The recent SST forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region range from ENSO-neutral to La Niña (Fig. 5). Nearly all of the dynamical ENSO models forecast the continuing development of La Niña during the next couple of months, and several of the statistical models also indicate the continuation of La Niña conditions through the end of the year. Therefore, current atmospheric conditions (stronger than average easterlies over the west-central Pacific) and observed oceanic trends indicate that La Niña conditions will further develop and possibly strengthen during the next 3 months.

 

Based on current conditions in the tropical Pacific, the most recent model outlooks, and on results from historical studies on the effects of cold episodes, wetter than normal conditions are expected over Indonesia and drier than normal conditions are anticipated over the central equatorial Pacific during September - November. During this period, potential impacts over the contiguous United States include wetter than normal conditions over the Pacific Northwest and drier than normal conditions over the southwestern states."

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

 

 

 

[AlpineK]

I heard about this last spring. I'm glad to see they haven't altered the forecast.

 

Rip it up brah LOL.

 

:moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance: :moondance:

[John Frieh]

:nurd:

 

The thing with La Nina is there is a lot of data that suggests that La Nina doesn't necessary mean wet and if anything can actually mean dry...

 

Good example:

 

PDX averages 37.07" of precip per winter (normal winter... no La Nina/El Nino).

 

2000/2001, 1998/1999 and 1988/1989 were all called/considered La Nina years.

 

For 2000/2001 PDX saw 23.00" of precip for that winter... the driest ever.

 

For 1998/1999 PDX saw 45.93" of precip... wet wet wet!

 

For 1988/1989 PDX saw 32.54" of precip... a little under average.

 

So... it could nuke all winter or... it could be super dry and make for one hell of a winter alpine season.

 

My plan? I'm preparing for both and doing my squats and pullups! Diversify your investments!

[hefeweizen]

Also from the CPC...

 

NWAC Spring 2007 Newsletter

 

The first link shows a map with regional forecasts for the contiguous US. The second is for the NWAC newsletter which has extensive data correlating strong and moderate La Nina/El Nino events and the resultant snowfall in the Pac NW. It does not seem to suggest dry conditions over the long range for La Nina years.

 

Baker 98-99: strong La Nina~ World Record Snowfall!!

Manifest destiny bishess!!

[dt_3pin]

Baker 98-99: strong La Nina~ World Record Snowfall!!

Manifest destiny bishess!!

 

Fuck Yeah!

 

 

[ClimbingPanther]

Wasn't 2000/2001 the year PDX set a record for consecutive rainy days? Either my memory's bad or there just wasn't a lot of heavy rain. Weird.

[letsroll]

Heavy rain down south, record snow up north. Guess it is time to start looking for a place north of seattle. I really need to win the lottery

[TREETOAD]

There are prodigious snow berries under my fruit trees already. This means a harsh winter is in the offing.

[Bug]

I heard that if you count the dingle berries on a grizzlies ass you can tell when the first snow is coming.

[Chad_A]

:nurd:

 

The thing with La Nina is there is a lot of data that suggests that La Nina doesn't necessary mean wet and if anything can actually mean dry...

 

Good example:

 

PDX averages 37.07" of precip per winter (normal winter... no La Nina/El Nino).

 

2000/2001, 1998/1999 and 1988/1989 were all called/considered La Nina years.

 

For 2000/2001 PDX saw 23.00" of precip for that winter... the driest ever.

 

For 1998/1999 PDX saw 45.93" of precip... wet wet wet!

 

For 1988/1989 PDX saw 32.54" of precip... a little under average.

 

So... it could nuke all winter or... it could be super dry and make for one hell of a winter alpine season.

 

My plan? I'm preparing for both and doing my squats and pullups! Diversify your investments!

 

And now for something completely different (namely, a post that doesn't have a crossfit reference in it).

[AlpineK]

As a moderator I'm going to start making demands to the other moderator crew that, "John Frieh," be forced to change his name back to Nolse (or whatever it was).