Peak Oil

[klenke]

Do you include the gas you spill down the side of the vehicle in your calculations?

Yes I do.

 

Hey, no stomping on a guy when he's down. To lose two sentimental machines in a month is almost unbearable.

 

Wish I could lose this instead:

[archenemy]

Marie did the same thing once and she survived.

[klenke]

Marie also lost two cell phones in a month and survived.

[G-spotter]

Educate yourselves:

 

http://www.theoildrum.com

 

Peak production WILL occur within the decade. Whether we have enough demand destruction due to market forces to avoid a hard landing remains to be seen. Two of the largest fields in the world are in decline (Gahwar and Cantarell). North Sea peaked a few years ago. Alaska peaked about a decade ago. We WILL NOT drill our way out of this one.

 

That's only true if you assume oil is really from fossils.

 

The simple existence of energy sources is not relevant without considering the EROEI (energy return on energy invested...i.e. the net energy after accounting for extraction/production). Many of the hyped technologies are net negative EROEI after accounting for all inputs.

 

Most EROEI calculations are nothing more than someone's opinion given numbers. Ethanol is a good case in point. Depending whose study you read it is either highly efficient or massvely inefficient. Show me two studies from different authors whose numbers agree and I might start to take them more seriously.

 

We do not have enough cropland to simulatenously feed ourselves and produce enough biofuels (diesel, ethanol) to operate at our current demand. EROEI for corn ethanol is horrible. Not great for tar sands either, which require huge amounts of water to extract (steam is pumped to liquify/loosen).

 

A mix of odd points. The best current source of ethanol is from waste, which is complementary rather than competitive with food production. It's true about tar sands and water, though. Alberta will run out of water long before it runs out of oil.

 

The key will be getting diversity, and getting it before an oil shock sends the global economy into a tailspin or instigates energy wars.

 

My personal view is that battery technology advancement/electric driven with liquid fuel reserves for extra distance is the best bet. We need to oil and nat gas stocks more for fertilizers, chemical feedstocks, pharma, etc than we need it for easy motoring.

 

You can already get or mod plug-in hybrids with range of over 100km before they burn a drop of gas. Around here, those plug-ins are getting all their energy from hydro and natual gas turbines. If I had one of those I'd be using less than 50L of gas a month.

 

We will need geographic diversity...massive solar in the sunbelt, geothermal in the Cascades, Sierra, and Rockies, clean coal in the appalachians, offshore wind farms, etc.

 

What, all of them? With 40% efficient solar power you could run the whole US energy grid off a 10 mile square patch of Arizona desert. Based on current trends in solar cell efficiency that's about 10 years off.

 

Getting more freight off 18wheelers and into rail helps as well. It's more efficient energy wise, and removes the truck traffic, which reduces road damage and traffic congestion which itself is a huge drain on efficiency.

 

Yeah, but how many trains go door to door?

 

Lots of tech articles on the site I linked if you look for them. Many academics, oil industry insiders, etc writing for that site and very detailed technical discussions.

[murraysovereign]

...It's true about tar sands and water, though. Alberta will run out of water long before it runs out of oil.

 

Naahh, relax. The more natural gas they burn to boil water to extract oil from the tar sands, and the more of the resulting oil that gets burned, the faster the atmosphere will warm up. That will increase the rate of melt in the icefields of the Rockies, producing more water. Perfect symbiotic relationship. And once the water runs out everyone will die, which will drastically reduce our oil consumption. So then the astmosphere will return to cooler temperatures, and the icefields will come back, and everything will be fine again, just like it was before we screwed it all up.

[G-spotter]

But then the dead remains of all the fossilized Albertans will themselves be tapped for energy by intelligent cockroaches, millions of years from now.

[murraysovereign]

Exactly - it's a perfectly balanced cycle. Isn't Nature wonderful?

[EWolfe]

...It's true about tar sands and water, though. Alberta will run out of water long before it runs out of oil.

 

Naahh, relax. The more natural gas they burn to boil water to extract oil from the tar sands, and the more of the resulting oil that gets burned, the faster the atmosphere will warm up. That will increase the rate of melt in the icefields of the Rockies, producing more water. Perfect symbiotic relationship. And once the water runs out everyone will die, which will drastically reduce our oil consumption. So then the astmosphere will return to cooler temperatures, and the icefields will come back, and everything will be fine again, just like it was before we screwed it all up.

 

Dude, are you like a Guru or something? Cuz I am really stoked on what you're layin down.

 

It's like "Everything is fine!" with the resignation of ages.

 

Do we catch the comet soon?

[archenemy]

I have Nikes.

[MarkMcJizzy]

1) Dru ( and others): Do you really believe that some or all oil came from a abiotic source? I don't think you really do, I think that you are playing devils advocate. The best book to read (in English) about this theory is Thomas Gold's "The Deep Hot Biosphere". Gold was an Ivy League physics professor, best know for being wrong. He was also very bright. Taken individually, his examples and arguements are good, but it requires disavowing so much geologic thought, theory, and evidence that i have difficulty with his thesis. Furthermore, no matter how it is generated, oil would still have to go to the same type of geoloic collectors it is now found in. Occams Razor leads me to believe that the current theory of petroleum genesis is in large part (>99%) correct, and Gold is a crumugeon.

 

2) I have always believed that since petroleum is an essentially world market, that the higher price of gas in other parts of the world was due to higher taxes (ie: Europe), and difficulty in local refineries (Africa).

 

3) This disscussion about mileage differences between manual and automatic transmissions is absurd. It is well established that manuals get higher MPG than automatics. This is due to the complete mechanical (when the clutch is fully released) efficiency of a manual transmission. At high speeds, all automatics lock the torque converter. But when these are not locked, there can be massive hydraulic inefficiency.

 

4) I firmly believe that there is little recoverable petroleum to be found in the tar sands. Much evidence suggests that it will take more energy to recover the sands oil than what is there. There are of coarse localized exceptions, but the great Canadain oil sand are a panacea.

[willstrickland]

That's only true if you assume oil is really from fossils.

And you are welcome to drink the kool aid with your abiotic oil cult bretheren.

 

 

Most EROEI calculations are nothing more than someone's opinion given numbers. Ethanol is a good case in point. Depending whose study you read it is either highly efficient or massvely inefficient. Show me two studies from different authors whose numbers agree and I might start to take them more seriously.

 

And most medical diagnoses are nothing more than someone's opinion. I can cite plenty of studies, the vast majority of which show ethanol with net negative to 1.6 EROEI depending on source.

 

A mix of odd points. The best current source of ethanol is from waste, which is complementary rather than competitive with food production.

 

And this alters the fact that we will not produce enough ethanol via crops how exactly? Talk about an odd point.

 

You can already get or mod plug-in hybrids with range of over 100km before they burn a drop of gas. Around here, those plug-ins are getting all their energy from hydro and natual gas turbines. If I had one of those I'd be using less than 50L of gas a month.

 

It takes 15yrs to turn over the vehicle fleet. You essentially made my point with "If I had one of those..." So go buy one smartguy.

 

 

What, all of them? With 40% efficient solar power you could run the whole US energy grid off a 10 mile square patch of Arizona desert. Based on current trends in solar cell efficiency that's about 10 years off.

 

Which means jack shit until massive projects are built. The larger point being you will not avoid ugly energy shocks because the development and construction time will lag the peaking of oil and likely natural gas production.

 

Yeah, but how many trains go door to door?

 

What part of "long haul trucking" is confusing to you? What percentage of the freight trucking mileage is local delivery and what part is long distance better suited to rail? Are you being deliberately dense? Magic 8 ball says "all signs point to yes".

[EWolfe]

There is NOTHING that can replace our oil dependence in the manner we are accustomed to. That in itself will shock a huge suburban culture, these are the IMMEDIATE repercussions that nobody wants to consider. No alternatives can sustain our dependence now. Time to get conscious, people! Cultural adolescence is ending soon!

[archenemy]

1) Dru ( and others): Do you really believe that some or all oil came from a abiotic source? I don't think you really do, I think that you are playing devils advocate. The best book to read (in English) about this theory is Thomas Gold's "The Deep Hot Biosphere". Gold was an Ivy League physics professor, best know for being wrong. He was also very bright. Taken individually, his examples and arguements are good, but it requires disavowing so much geologic thought, theory, and evidence that i have difficulty with his thesis. Furthermore, no matter how it is generated, oil would still have to go to the same type of geoloic collectors it is now found in. Occams Razor leads me to believe that the current theory of petroleum genesis is in large part (>99%) correct, and Gold is a crumugeon.

 

2) I have always believed that since petroleum is an essentially world market, that the higher price of gas in other parts of the world was due to higher taxes (ie: Europe), and difficulty in local refineries (Africa).

 

3) This disscussion about mileage differences between manual and automatic transmissions is absurd. It is well established that manuals get higher MPG than automatics. This is due to the complete mechanical (when the clutch is fully released) efficiency of a manual transmission. At high speeds, all automatics lock the torque converter. But when these are not locked, there can be massive hydraulic inefficiency.

 

4) I firmly believe that there is little recoverable petroleum to be found in the tar sands. Much evidence suggests that it will take more energy to recover the sands oil than what is there. There are of coarse localized exceptions, but the great Canadain oil sand are a panacea.

Clearly you should stick to calling people "dumbshit" and not posting much beyond that.

[StickBoy]

Educate yourselves:

 

http://www.theoildrum.com

 

Peak production WILL occur within the decade. Whether we have enough demand destruction due to market forces to avoid a hard landing remains to be seen. Two of the largest fields in the world are in decline (Gahwar and Cantarell). North Sea peaked a few years ago. Alaska peaked about a decade ago. We WILL NOT drill our way out of this one.

 

The simple existence of energy sources is not relevant without considering the EROEI (energy return on energy invested...i.e. the net energy after accounting for extraction/production). Many of the hyped technologies are net negative EROEI after accounting for all inputs.

 

We do not have enough cropland to simulatenously feed ourselves and produce enough biofuels (diesel, ethanol) to operate at our current demand. EROEI for corn ethanol is horrible. Not great for tar sands either, which require huge amounts of water to extract (steam is pumped to liquify/loosen).

 

The key will be getting diversity, and getting it before an oil shock sends the global economy into a tailspin or instigates energy wars.

 

My personal view is that battery technology advancement/electric driven with liquid fuel reserves for extra distance is the best bet. We need to oil and nat gas stocks more for fertilizers, chemical feedstocks, pharma, etc than we need it for easy motoring.

 

We will need geographic diversity...massive solar in the sunbelt, geothermal in the Cascades, Sierra, and Rockies, clean coal in the appalachians, offshore wind farms, etc.

 

Getting more freight off 18wheelers and into rail helps as well. It's more efficient energy wise, and removes the truck traffic, which reduces road damage and traffic congestion which itself is a huge drain on efficiency.

 

Lots of tech articles on the site I linked if you look for them. Many academics, oil industry insiders, etc writing for that site and very detailed technical discussions.

 

It's nice to see someone else who must listen to Jim Puplava. I wish more people would.

[MarkMcJizzy]

Clearly you should stick to calling people "dumbshit" and not posting much beyond that.

 

OK, Dru is a dumbshit. You might be onne also. What are you rambling about "flywheel tolerance"? The flywheel has nothing to do with a automatic transmission, it is mearly what you bolt the torque converter to.

 

Why is Dru a dumbshit? Cause he keeps bring up his abiotoc theory of pertoleum generation. Scientist who really feel strongky about this use it for everything, including the origin of peat beds of Miocene age and younger. It seems to me to be a complete disassembly of Huttons work "the past is the key to the present".

[archenemy]

Clearly you should stick to calling people "dumbshit" and not posting much beyond that.

 

OK, Dru is a dumbshit. You might be onne also. What are you rambling about "flywheel tolerance"? The flywheel has nothing to do with a automatic transmission, it is mearly what you bolt the torque converter to.

 

Why is Dru a dumbshit? Cause he keeps bring up his abiotoc theory of pertoleum generation. Scientist who really feel strongky about this use it for everything, including the origin of peat beds of Miocene age and younger. It seems to me to be a complete disassembly of Huttons work "the past is the key to the present".

[Off_White]

Hey babes, you'll never make the best buddy list that way...

[olyclimber]

i just don't understand why most the dinosaurs died in the Middle East. Why couldn't they have died in the Mid West of the US? Seems un-American of them. Perhaps god is not on our side after all.

[olyclimber]

[G-spotter]

The biomass of archaea outweighs all other life on Earth.

The deeper you go, the more of them you find.

What could it be that they are doing down there? Hmmmm?

 

How come you find oil in granite, and in other weird places, if you drill deep enough?

How come old oil wells are slowly refilling?

 

I pretty much think Thomas Gold and the Russians have it backwards, except with respect to methane. I don't think those little archaea (Delicate Arch-aea? ) are eating abiotic oil. I think they are MAKING biotic oil from rocks and methane. And why not breed them specifically to do this?

[olyclimber]

that would be killer! you could just put them directly into the gas tank of your Hummer H3 and go braffing at Arches

[G-spotter]

Yeah, but you'd have to set your Hummer on fire and pile rocks on top of it to keep it at the temperature and pressure they need to breed.

[foraker]

 

Yes, this is why the Swedes are now energy independent, right Dru?. Jeebus, try applying Occam's Razor once in awhile.

Or at least learn some geology, geophysics, and geochemistry.

[AlpineK]

Dru has a know it all personality even when all he knows is jack.

[G-spotter]

You guys remind me of the geologists in the 50s all claiming that continents couldn't move. The evidence is all there but your heads are stuck too far up the asses of your dead dinosaur paradigms to see it.