Peter_Puget Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 ..the weeping on CC.com after the next national election. Revising its year-end economic forecast sharply upward, The Conference Board today projected that real GDP growth will hit 5.7% next year, making 2004 the best year economically in the last 20 years...While the U.S. economy is expected to generate more than one million new jobs next year, the unemployment rate will edge down only slightly, averaging 5.6% in 2004 Conference Board Link Corroborative evidence of the landslide to come: A stunning new poll shows President Bush would clobber Democratic front-runner Howard Dean by nearly 2-1 in politically potent New Hampshire - even though Dean has a giant lead over Democratic rivals in the state. Bush gets 57 percent to Dean's 30 percent among registered voters in the American Research Group poll. In fact, Dean, from neighboring Vermont, does worse in the Granite State than a generic "Democratic Party nominee" who loses to Bush by 51 to 34 percent. Another ARG poll this month showed Dean with a 30-point lead over Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) for the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary, the second test after the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses. Link Getting happier by the hour, PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scrambler Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 Peter Puget. I remain convinced that the economy is still recovering. Also, though you didn't mention anything of it, a bullish stock market and the overall health of the economy are two different things. BTW, I share your sentiment that Bush will probably see another term, however, I believe it'll be through election shenanigans and PR extravagandas. He'll pull for an October surprise, most likely if the Iraqi situation works out and he effectively reduces our presence there. However, do you recall something called the Tet Offensive? It ain't over until the fat lady sings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiskeybreath Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 Good points Scrambler. I think you might be on to something. Will be fun to watch. Sucks to have our men and women killed over there just to be pawns in GW's election strategy though. I REALLY HATE POLITICS IN THIS COUNTRY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willstrickland Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 You know, I will enjoy all the weeping when we finally figure out that we have to pay off this huge deficit. Wait a minute...no I won't, I've gotta pay that too! There's one "x-factor" that all these polls don't account for and that is this: People who are truly pissed off with the current administration are more likely to turn out for the vote than those happy with the status quo. So a poll that says "xyz percent of registered voters would vote thus" is practically worthless when you consider that turnout in many states is well under 50% of those registered. You also might remember that McCain won New Hampshire in the Republican primary in 2000. New Hampshire is a beautiful state, but doesn't amount to shit in the election, too few electoral votes. A very, very few states will decide the next election, because they are the only ones "up for grabs". States that will matter are states like PA, MI, NM, FL where the outcome is very uncertain. Probably a good 40-45 states are the big "so what" because we already know which way they will go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter_Puget Posted December 12, 2003 Author Share Posted December 12, 2003 scrambler said: Peter Puget. I remain convinced that the economy is still recovering. Also, though you didn't mention anything of it, a bullish stock market and the overall health of the economy are two different things. I didn't mention the stock market at all. But I would point out that the stock market is often a leading indicator and the DJIA close over 10k yestersday. BTW, I share your sentiment that Bush will probably see another term, however, I believe it'll be through election shenanigans and PR extravagandas. He'll pull for an October surprise, most likely if the Iraqi situation works out and he effectively reduces our presence there. However, do you recall something called the Tet Offensive? I do recall the Tet offensive one of the most lopside victories in world history. You are right to bring it up as it was distorted by the press. I am sure the press will try their hardest* to defeat Bush as well - thanks for the heads up. It ain't over until the fat lady sings. * - Several days ago I posted several pictures of a demonstration in Iraq. An Anti-terrorist demonstration. It was one of the largest in recent times. It was reported inaccurately on page 5 of the Seattle Times Yesterday. Why wasn’t it on the cover of the NYT? Seattle Times? LA Times? I say because it did not conform to the prejudices of the press. Again thanks for the heads up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter_Puget Posted December 12, 2003 Author Share Posted December 12, 2003 Ok Smarty Strickland layout your prediction for the election. State By State add the electoral votes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scrambler Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 Peter_Puget said: scrambler said: Peter Puget. I remain convinced that the economy is still recovering. I didn't mention the stock market at all. But I would point out that the stock market is often a leading indicator and the DJIA close over 10k yestersday. BTW, I share your sentiment that Bush will probably see another term, however, I believe it'll be through election shenanigans and PR extravagandas. He'll pull for an October surprise, most likely if the Iraqi situation works out and he effectively reduces our presence there. Also, though you didn't mention anything of it, a bullish stock market and the overall health of the economy are two different things. However, do you recall something called the Tet Offensive? I do recall the Tet offensive one of the most lopside victories in world history. You are right to bring it up as it was distorted by the press. I am sure the press will try their hardest* to defeat Bush as well - thanks for the heads up. It ain't over until the fat lady sings. * - Several days ago I posted several pictures of a demonstration in Iraq. An Anti-terrorist demonstration. It was one of the largest in recent times. It was reported inaccurately on page 5 of the Seattle Times Yesterday. Why wasn’t it on the cover of the NYT? Seattle Times? LA Times? I say because it did not conform to the prejudices of the press. Again thanks for the heads up! The difference between you and me, is that I can disengage my thinking from rote obedience to the party line. I am reminded of this quote: "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." -- Aristotle (384-322 BC), Greek philosopher Also, true of a school of thought. My exact words: "Also, though you didn't mention anything of it , a bullish stock market and the overall health of the economy are two different things." I have to say that economics isn't one of my strong points. Lots to learn here. Maybe you can help me out, for example, can you tell me the long term effect of a weak US dollar? The important thing to remember is that Tet was considered a surprise that, whatever the spin, overwhelmingly changed our perception of the war. I remain unconvinced that we have honed our military intelligence to prevent this from happening. Regardless, this election prediction is not a science, it's an art and there's a shit load of wild cards. Well, I took the demonstration as a exhibition of popular demand for a freely elected government as opposed to one imposed from without. This is the shit storm we might face: that of a freely elected government hostile to our interests. Do you think that this hypothetical gov't will be predominantly Shiite? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willstrickland Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 Pete, since you my bitch, I'll delegate that duty to you. I've got better things to do...like walk down the hall and get another cup of turbojava. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter_Puget Posted December 12, 2003 Author Share Posted December 12, 2003 scrambler said: The difference between you and me, is that I can disengage my thinking from rote obedience to the party line. I am reminded of this quote: "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." -- Aristotle (384-322 BC), Greek philosopher Also, true of a school of thought. Another difference is I try not to engage in ad hominem attacks or to bring in completely unrelated outside authorities to give me a veneer of authority. My exact words: "Also, though you didn't mention anything of it , a bullish stock market and the overall health of the economy are two different things." I have to say that economics isn't one of my strong points. Lots to learn here. Maybe you can help me out, for example, can you tell me the long term effect of a weak US dollar? I agree. Your question is a bit unclear ; however, I would advocate that the dollar’s value be what the natural market rate will have it be. The important thing to remember is that Tet was considered a surprise that, whatever the spin, overwhelmingly changed our perception of the war. I remain unconvinced that we have honed our military intelligence to prevent this from happening. Regardless, this election prediction is not a science, it's an art and there's a shit load of wild cards. You threw lots of stuff in here but Tet was a surpirse and despite that US forces had one of the most lopsided victories in world history. It changed our perception true but mostly due to competley biased reporting. As far as intelligence it seems to me any dangerous enemy will be capable of surprises. Well, I took the demonstration as a exhibition of popular demand for a freely elected government as opposed to one imposed from without. This is the shit storm we might face: that of a freely elected government hostile to our interests. Do you think that this hypothetical gov't will be predominantly Shiite? What shit storm it was a peaceful demonstration. Even commies participated. WHy no mention of the US record on reporting it. Oh I see another difference between us. You simply ignore things you do not like. PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scrambler Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 It's all about appearances, isn't it? BTW, I luv the patriotic theme colors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willstrickland Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 OK Pete, I'm bored at work so here's some data to chew on. (Source for my raw data is USElectionsAtlas.ORG) This is all in ref to the presidential election. I'm rounding decimals in most places In 2000 the Republican had 26 states with over 50% of the vote, and 7 of those states voted 60% or greater Republican (WY, ND, SD, ID, NE, OK, UT). Peak was WY at 67.7% Republican. In 2000 the Democrat had 15 states with over 50% of the vote, and 4 of those voted 60% or greater Democrat. Peak was DC with 85% Democrat. I'd call anything above 55% decisive. The total electoral votes for these "decisive" states was: Republican 146 Democrat 114 Keep in mind though, that a state was won (OR) with as little as 46% of the vote. Green Party recieved as much as 10% (AK) and had 11 states with 5% or more. Green Party will not be a factor in this election. Liberal greens got burned by the election fiasco and there's dissent within the party of whether Nader or David Cobb should represent the party due to the "draw off" factor. Nader will draw off votes and Cobb wants to focus on building the grass roots level of the party. Look for the Greens to go Dem (duh). Without Nader the results would have likely only been different in 2 states (operating under the assumption that 60% or more of the greens would have voted dem instead). Those 2 were FL, and NH with a total of 29 electoral votes. The closest race states were top to bottom: Florida , New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa, OREGON, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Nevada. Of those states, the real players (by electoral votes)are: FL-25, OH-21, MO-11, WI-11, MN-10 The higest percent difference in those 10 states was 3.5%, total electoral votes up for grabs in those 10 was 105 out of a total of 538 possible electoral votes. I was erroneous in stating the turnout was < 50%. Turnout of the voting age populus was right at 50%, but turnout of registered voters was 67%. In Wyoming, 99.25% of the registered voters turned out. In OK, only 55%. It's gonna be a for about 10 states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter_Puget Posted December 12, 2003 Author Share Posted December 12, 2003 willstrickland said: Pete, since you my bitch, I'll delegate that duty to you. I've got better things to do...like walk down the hall and get another cup of turbojava. ..on how willing you are to be the bitch. Reminds me of my days as the cell block king. Now go get me my smokes! PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 It's early yet. We'll see. It will be interesing to see a debate between the Shrub and Dean. It'll probably be like a, well, shrub and a, well, Doctor. Think Will is right, it'll be another barn-burner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtn_mouse Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 Peter_Puget said: Revising its year-end economic forecast sharply upward, The Conference Board today projected that real GDP growth will hit 5.7% next year, making 2004 the best year economically in the last 20 years...While the U.S. economy is expected to generate more than one million new jobs next year, the unemployment rate will edge down only slightly, averaging 5.6% in 2004 Statistics suck! You can prove anything with statistics. -Homer Simpson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctorb Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 Why is it that Dwyaner can get banned for his continuous stream of anti-bolt drivel, but we have to put up with Peter_Peckerhead endlessly cock-slobbering over the right wing agenda? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cracked Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 Doctorb said: Why is it that Dwyaner can get banned for his continuous stream of anti-bolt drivel, but we have to put up with Peter_Peckerhead endlessly cock-slobbering over the right wing agenda? Because PP doesn't consistently hijack threads to forward his agenda. Duh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctorb Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 It's disgusting what Bush and his co-cunts have done to this country. Our civil rights are literally dissappearing. If Patriot Act II gets passed, it will be permanent. Additionally, the increased level of militarization since 9/11 will bankrupt us. So, PP, fuck right off and die. History will look back on this time, and you, with disgust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erik Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 you see necro that is the type of passion that you should be directing towards actual players of the right and not some random interner personality. and anyways....i think history will have a postive look on peter puget's record! channel that energy young warrior and do something with it instead of being inflamitory where it does not count! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctorb Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 erik said: you see necro that is the type of passion that you should be directing towards actual players of the right and not some random interner personality. and anyways....i think history will have a postive look on peter puget's record! channel that energy young warrior and do something with it instead of being inflamitory where it does not count! Sensei, How is one to repsond to this pus? I can't help but to become enraged by someone who thinks that Bush is a good thing , instead of the WORST THING. And fuck "The Economy". It only tells you how fast the rich are getting richer, and how the rest are spiraling into debt and wage slavery, or rotting on the streets. PP is a douche. In the words of a great, great man, he should "shut the fuck up". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iain Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 if a braying donkey on pcp steps up to the podium I will vote for it next election over gwb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbw1966 Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 iain said: if a braying donkey on pcp steps up to the podium I will vote for it next election over gwb Post of the Day!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willstrickland Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 Peter_Puget said: ..the weeping on CC.com after the next national election. the unemployment rate will edge down only slightly, averaging 5.6% in 2004 Getting happier by the hour, PP This seems to be the most relevant stat I see. Economic growth on paper doesn't mean jack to the people still out of work. While economists will point out that 5.6% is really not that high (some even place the natural rate around 5%) the fact that it's been much lower for a decade or more will influence the perception of the man in the street. Don't start celebrating yet Pete, we've got a long way to go. And it looks like Dean might be ordained well before the primaries are in full swing, allowing less in-party squabbling and more time to focus on beating the Shrub. I'm in AK, where Bush will clean house, so I'm voting my conscious...Libertarian for Pres and Greens for local posts (because they have a real chance here). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctorb Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 280 million people, 2/3 employable, 5.6% unemployment, that's 10,348,000 people without jobs. Thanks George!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlpineK Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 I seems to me that if things keep going the way they are right now that PP's prediction is right. However that doesn't mean I'm not going to vote or anything. I'll vote for the canidate with the greatest chance of beating GW; be it Dean, Clark, or whoever. The fact of the matter is that GW is an asswipe who is bent on wrecking: The environment Relations with foriegn countries Our civil rights The federal budget Also if he gets elected again he's going to stack the courts with a bunch of neo-facist pig fuckers. Fuck Bush Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter_Puget Posted December 12, 2003 Author Share Posted December 12, 2003 willstrickland said: Don't start celebrating yet Pete, we've got a long way to go. And it looks like Dean might be ordained well before the primaries are in full swing, allowing less in-party squabbling and more time to focus on beating the Shrub. Notice the religious imagery. Why I wouldn’t be surprised if young Will grew up in a house with pictures of JFK on the wall. Then in the very next sentence we get sexual imagery. The feminization of Bush? But the last one definitely exudes homoerotic tones: “beating the Shrub.” I find lefties constantly confuse their religious, sexual and political impulses. This of course leads to dissatifaction in all three areas. Will, stop hedging your bets. Name the states. I say a landslide of McGovern proportions. Bush may win Mass even!!!!! Now where are my smokes? Also, I am beginning to think the Doctor may not really be a Doctor at all. PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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