DPS

if you flip a coin 9 times and get a heads every time, there's one probability that you are at the long tail of a normal distribution, and the Bayesian statistician would also evaluate the probability that there is something wrong with the coin you are using (in which case the chance of getting another head might be 100%) If you enough to invoke Thomas Bayes, you know enough that a 'fair' coin is assumed.

No, because I understand statistics.

If you flip a coin 9 times and come up with heads everytime, the probability of flipping the coin again and coming up heads is still 50/50.

Well, not really. Statistics apply to samples and are extrapolated to populations. You really can't apply statistics to individuals. As the saying goes, the average person has one testicle, one ovary, and one breast. Interesting, most of my relatives have died of heart disease, strokes, and suicide, among the most popular ways to die.

Thanks for following up on this Tyson.

I climbed with a guy a few times who was way into DH mtn biking and he was always breaking something.

I had a climbing partner who gave up trying to make it as a climbing photographer to shoot auto and motorcycling racing - big sponsors, more money. Anyway, he said motorcycle racing was way more dangerous than climbing.

It would have taught them the value of a wilderness experience.

Not much one can do about that, except maybe vandalize their snow machines while the riders are out skiing.

Ok, I can see that in the Wild Sky Wilderness.

Are there roads inside wilderness areas?

I have a stretch woven softshell. Like most of Seattle, I enjoy wearing it on the bus to work. So much more handsome than a hardshell. While climbing, I wear a Marmot DriClime windshirt. It is lighter, more compressible, warmer, windproof, resists light precipitation and layers better as the nylon shell allows fleece or other insulation pieces to slide against it.

I didn't realize I was making fun of the disabled, just making fun of what I assumed was a typo. Sorry if I offended you. Really. Sorry.

I'd like to do some vintage climbing. I was much better 15 years ago. I'll wear my Chouinard harness and bring my hexes.

I went to High School in Nothern VA. There is a lot to be said for that part of the country, just not clmbing.

I simply don't understand the desire to solo Rainier. It is not like soloing 5.12 or WI 6 or something rad like that. It is just slogging and a crevasse will swallow you regardless of your skill level.

The biggest crevasse fall I've ever had was at about 13,500 ft above Gib Rock in January. Sastrugi snow had concealed a weakly bridged crevasse and I walked out on it length wise when I poked through. As I fell the rope broke the bridge behind me. The crevasse was massive; 50 ft across and was far deeper than my headlamp beam penetrated. When I prusiked out, I discovered my partner had self arrested at the very edge of the crevasse. I had fallen the entire rope length between us. Seeing folks unroped on this section makes me ill with the thought of the consequences of an unroped fall.

Free electrolytes.

I have a master's degree. My first chemistry job after grad school paid $15.00 an hour, $2.50 less an hour than the carpentry job I left to take it. And this was at a government lab that paid much better than commerical labs. I wound up writing software for the last ten years. More lucrative, more jobs.

The guys I know who went to Dartmouth had awesome things to say about the ice in NH and Lake willoughby, VT. Dartmouth is a pretty kick ass school too. Colorado School of Mines is quite good too.

Well, there is driving, and then there is driving.

Unfortunately pack volumes are not necessarily equal across manufacturers. I find my BD Shadow 45L to be perfect for 1 -3 nights on technical roues. I also hace a Montbel Balance Light 40 which is identical in volume, and also perfect for 1 -3 nights on technical ground.

This is a great idea. In my previous job I did a lot of mapping of environmental data for Web based apps. I toyed with the idea of developing a client side scripted map (i.e. Google Maps) to map avalanche risk in near real time. In my opionion, one would need to do the following: -Create polygons on the map using he same rubric the avalanche forecasters use. Aspect, elevation, slope angle, position, etc. -Include telemetered data including temperature, recent snowfall, wind, etc to fine tune the existing forecasts. -Avalanche forecasters would need to be consulted to come up with a workable algorithm. -The polygons would be shaded with different colors to indicate varying risk levels (green, yellow, red). You could need a web service or at least do a web scrape to get data for a near real time map that would be usable to climbers, skiiers and other winter back country travelers. I would personally not use ESRI (user hostile software as one collegue called it). Google maps have enough data to do this, although drawing the polygons would slow the map rendering a lot.

Good find. Having taken an awful lot of statistics classes I always called bullshit when folks say "The drive to the crag is the most dangerous part of climbing." The risk in mountain sports is real.

I climbed TC back in February 2000. The runnels were completely dry so we climbed to the top of the Hidden Couloir. Three 60 meter pitches of pretty sustained 5.7 rock (our estimation of what it would have been in summer in rock shoes, felt much harder in crampons) lead to the North Face bowl - 60 degree rock slabs with 1/4" of snice. We should have unroped, but simu-climbed the entire bowl hoping for pro. None was found. We climbed three more pitches of 5.7 rock to exit into the third couloir. Came back in April of 2003 and found the runnels well iced. It was far, far easier than what we climbed 3 years before. Passed Dave Burdick and Eric ? on the route.