JosephH

First off, as pointed out, a novel form of obesity isn't going to come out of the blue and wipe out 5% of the world population. Second, who gives a fuck about "long-term complications" of influenza when pandemic form of the virus could overnight wipe out vast tracts of mostly healthy adults between the ages of 20 and 65 with half of those deaths being adults between the ages of 20 and 40. I will grant you some unintended substance relative to a tie to the overuse of antibiotics, though. However, the parallel is not with vaccination, which is simply a matter of getting the body to recognize any given virus, but rather with the use of antivirals against the flu. And that isn't a matter of 'overuse', but rather of any use at all. It's hard to see how this virus won't quickly adapt to antivirals given it's mutation rate. See this article for more: Global migration dynamics underlie evolution and persistence of human influenza A (H3N2) As for worrying about potential threats to human existence goes, I'd put the risk of a deadly global flu pandemic at the top of the list way, way ahead of any industrial, environmental, military, geological, or astrophysical concerns. If we had a numerical repeat of the 1918 flu pandemic it would kill roughly a quarter billion people today.

It isn't one flu that's out there, there's Influenza A (79%) consisting of H1N1(A/California 2%) and H3(A/Victoria 98%) subtypes and Influenza B (21%) consisting of B/Wisconsin(67%) and B/Victoria(33%) subtypes. Take a look at this to see how fast an Influenza A strain can kick out subtypes: The nomenclature above is deciphered as: Also keep in mind, if multiply infected which a lot of host will be, the various flu strains and subtypes will either coexist with, or compete against, one another along with swapping genetic spit (see: Ecological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses). Then there is the matter of Influenza A mutating by both antigenic 'drift' (slow) and 'shift' (fast), whereas Influenza B mainly mutates by antigenic 'drift' alone. But overall these things are fast mutation machines in general and in that pose threat enough with just antegenic 'drift' mutations jumping from individual-to-individual. They don't really need the kind of long-haul episodic hide-and-seek strategies used by HIV and Malaria within a single host. In the time all that would take in a single human, Influenza will be rolling out new subtypes as it marches from host-to-host.

The only best protection is a clear policy that prohibits sick workers from working. I would actually agree with both of these statements.

Yes, about as much correlation as between antibiotic over-use and flu vaccinations.

Again, the ignorance is palpable in the attempt to tie the two issues.

Bill, absolutely right, We actively monitor SE China and northern Vietnam for emerging flu strains because on farms in in that region humans, chickens, pigs, and ducks live in [very] close daily proximity. Best way to think about it is to view domestic pigs and chickens as viral 'mixing pots' where multiple strains of wild, migratory waterfowl and human influenza can get together and swap genetic spit to produce novel strains which can jump ship in both directions, some of which we really aren't used to and can provoke violent immune system responses (like this year's strain which is provoking a 'medium' response): [ P.S. And it's kind of a downer aspect of the whole urban 'farmer' chicken fad... ] And I dunno about the whole 'man apart' thing though. I get the general, 'free solo' perceptual appeal, but in my case, having some respiratory weakness that leaves me prone to pneumonia, I get every flu and pneumonia shot that comes along like clockwork. But, like your grandmother, the smart money - i.e. those personally most familiar with the disease science and treatment, including the harshest scientist critics of the vaccines program administration - is way, way on the side of getting the vaccines, not avoiding them. And this year? Man, this year I'd run, not walk, to get the vaccine while there's still some available.

I dunno, that was pretty good. Probably easier for folks to just head on over to GlobalSecurity.org for a good flu overview and follow the "Further Reading" links on the right and they'll walk you through the whole flu topic in fairly good detail. Or you can check out Science Blogs for a [short] four part look at the science. But in general, the basic nightmare of preventing infections or thwarting poisons has to do with attempting to gum up the works of the molecular surface binding interactions between various human cell membrane features and pathogenic and toxicological mechanisms for binding to them. The problem with influenza, malaria, HIV, etc. is the rate of mutation of the viral mechanisms which dock to the various cell membrane features subject to attack. But in the end it really does conceptually almost boil down to this simple: At their simplest, viruses are a [binding] sheath (caspid) with a DNA or RNA (flu) delivery payload (and do take note of those 'HA' spikes in this diagram): So fighting viruses (as well as bacteria, cancer, and toxins) is basically all about doing battle around the [insanely clever] cellular binding interactions: Current influenza vaccines are like chasing a rabbit in that we're always behind and guessing because the viral binding mechanisms are always mutating. What we'd really like is a 'universal' vaccine where human antibody production could be targeted to recognize and bind with non-mutating aspects of influenza binding mechanisms/proteins which would hopefully be shared across all or most influenza strains. To see the problem in more detail, take a look at a close up of one of those 'HA' spikes from the second diagram above (the white and red are one of those virus HA spikes; the blue, green, and yellow whirligig deals are human antibody proteins 'attacking' the virus by binding to specific features of its HA spike - the red bits): And the idea of the vaccine as a 'miniflu' to prevent a 'megaflu' isn't all that bad a way to represent what we're trying to achieve in the process of vaccination - provoking an an immune system response to spur the production of specific antibodies which will attack the flu strains targeted by the vaccine. It's conceptually fairly straightforward enough but, unfortunately, is some serious rocket science in execution of both the basic research and vaccine development and production. With regard to the $9 billion spent on vaccine programs - please - that's 12.5 days of war at the going rate of $720 million per day. And what else could your warbucks buy every 12.5 days? So let's not bemoan the vaccine programs - they're a veritable steal and at least have a shot at protecting you personally from something compared to the money we've been spending on war of late.

Sometimes it's just hard not to be a b/21 truther.

Come the end of the month we're all getting a bad case of the bird flu - proof positive vaccines don't work worth a damn and that it's all a guberment conspiracy.

The problem is that folks like you just don't get the science. Dude, I have a background in microbiology, there's no aspect of the vaccine science that's lost on me. You so just don't understand the science, the efficacy of the vaccines, or how vaccination works in general or you wouldn't have just written that. It's a gross misinterpretation of almost all aspects of flu vaccination. And, hey, check it out, even the harshest technical critics of our flu vaccine program take the vaccine and recommend every one do the same.

It's hard to overstate just how profoundly ignorant that statement is. Name long term effects in healthy people, if you are so enlighten. I can name a few from obesity. N1H1 had about 300 fatalities, about 1500 had long term complications. Now, there are about 2 million 500 thousand deaths related to obesity every year. Any questions. Profit or non-profit, the vaccines themselves have little to nothing to do with the problems of which we've created in the industry. Throwing them under your bus is less than helpful.

It's hard to overstate just how profoundly ignorant that statement is.

I hear you, time marches on. Will have find a quieter spot some where I guess.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2259774/Flu-epidemic-worst-decade-Boston-declares-state-emergency-Chicago-hospitals-turn-away-ambulances.html

Looking at Railay now on google earth I see Tonsai beach got developed. When I was there in '93 there was nothing at all over there or the beach on the Ao Nang side of the point so no longtail boats were transecting a line between Railay west and the point that projects out into the bay between Tonsai or a line between the point and Ao Nang. Kind of a bummer now as I thought the daily swim from Railay west out to the point or to Ao Nang and back was the best part of staying there. Now with all the longtail boat traffic in and out of Tonsai and that other beach you'd end up just so much cut up fish bait if your tried that swim today.

I'll say, I was there for six weeks and had a hard time leaving.

Hah. I took a full trad rack and it seem to create quite a stir with the locals one of whom ended up my main partners while I was there. I was there in '93 and the bolts were disintegrating then, hope they've been replacing them fast and furious ever since.

Jeebus, hard to believe it's been twenty years since I was in Railay. Now that the kidder is raised up and flown the coop we'll have to consider getting back there again.

http://gearjunkie.com/jacket-has-hood-with-goggles-built-in

As opposed to the always deadly car belay...

Why you don't want the tribes re-involved (East Face closure related)

Yes, but we were done at that point.

Well, if there were newer heavy Metolious rap hangers, then you went down the LLL and Rip City rap. This is definitely the time of year to do it.

Climbing much down there in the land of plenty, or are you mostly wobbling these days yourself.