George W Bush: 320 electoral votes.
While the first debate was a disaster, Bush's failure to botch the second debate and his likely victory in tonight's contest now leave me confident he will win in November.
Additionally, the violence-free elections in Afghanistan, the possible unravelling of the Falluja insurgency, the Mahdi army surrendering (some of) their weapons, the uncovering of more (of Saddam's) mass graves in Kurdish areas, the landslide victory of our Australian ally, and John Kerry's ongoing demonstrable contempt for the process spell the end for his plans.
A recent look at the electoral map reveals that Kerry would have to have many, many things go his way for a victory.
Barring some last minute mud....and it would have to be really dirty mud....Bush will win. I'm predicting; by a lot.
All of this IMHO, of course.