Grab Your Ca-nkles....

[JayB]

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/vancouver-housing-full-correction-mode-implications-canadian-banks

"Before diving into the data, consider this fun anecdote: There are currently over 5,000 homes in Vancouver metro area for sale for over $1 million according to MLS.ca. In comparison, the NAR reports that in April, just over 7,000 homes sold in the entire US were sold for over $1 million. And this despite the fact that the US population is 135X greater than the metro Vancouver market, the average personal disposable income in the US is 20% higher than the Vancouver average ($37,100 vs. $30,800) while US per capita GDP is higher than the average for all of BC."

 

 

Yipes.

[G-spotter]

How many mainland Chinese are buying houses in the USA as investments though?

[whirlwind]

atleast your personal disposable income is kinda going up. i don't think thats true for the states.

[jon]

JayB, you'd love this blog vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com.

Edited August 7, 2012 by jon

[glassgowkiss]

Unlike in the US, in Canada there was a recent credit regulation tightening. Longest loan term 25 years, equity loans- only up to 80% of value. No zero down credit. Mind you also in B.C. minimum wage is $12, so the bar is set much higher then in WA state.

[KaskadskyjKozak]

Mind you also in B.C. minimum wage is $12, so the bar is set much higher then in WA state.

 

Do you think that is sufficient to live off of? Or is there still pressure/complaining about it?

 

In the US the minimum wage has stagnating. If it had matched inflation from it's highest historical point, it would be over $10/hour today.

 

[glassgowkiss]

First of all, do you understand what minimum wage is? so the question if it is sufficient is kind of stupid- isn't it!? But if you do the math, it's much easier to pay for essentials if you earn $12 vs $9 (which I guess is one of the highest in the union). But because the minimum wage is set at this level, automatically the median wage is much higher. In general I see that in Canada most of my dirtbag friends are in many cases better off then low middle class working folks here in WA state.

[KaskadskyjKozak]

First of all, do you understand what minimum wage is? so the question if it is sufficient is kind of stupid- isn't it!? But if you do the math, it's much easier to pay for essentials if you earn $12 vs $9 (which I guess is one of the highest in the union). But because the minimum wage is set at this level, automatically the median wage is much higher. In general I see that in Canada most of my dirtbag friends are in many cases better off then low middle class working folks here in WA state.

 

there is nothing "stupid" about the question; the responder OTOH...

[kevbone]

"There are currently over 5,000 homes in Vancouver metro area for sale"?

 

Really? In Vancouver, WA.....who knew?

[glassgowkiss]

First of all, do you understand what minimum wage is? so the question if it is sufficient is kind of stupid- isn't it!? But if you do the math, it's much easier to pay for essentials if you earn $12 vs $9 (which I guess is one of the highest in the union). But because the minimum wage is set at this level, automatically the median wage is much higher. In general I see that in Canada most of my dirtbag friends are in many cases better off then low middle class working folks here in WA state.

 

there is nothing "stupid" about the question; the responder OTOH...

if you don't understand the subject matter and start voicing your opinions- that is definition of stupid. when were you in canada last time, anyway?

[bstach]

All housing markets are local and determined by local factors. Comparing the Vancouver housing market to aggregate data for an entire country is stupid. Compare Vancouver with Manhatten and I am sure the situation looks different.

[JayB]

If you compare the mortgage-to-income and rent-to-mortgage ratios in Manahattan and Vancouver situation will only look worse. Manhattan level prices - yes. Manhattan level incomes - no.

 

Look out below.

[G-spotter]

How about if you compare to HK? Same pool of buyers.

[JayB]

Think it was ~90% HAM in the west side at the peak, ~1% in the rest of the GVA.

 

The real story is locals buying participating in a speculative mania catalyzed by cheap credit and loose lending - same as everywhere else.

 

Not sure how HK's metrics compare to Vancouver's other than they're also massively out of line with fundamentals.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[G-spotter]

 

Not sure how HK's metrics compare to Vancouver's other than they're also massively out of line with fundamentals.

 

 

Same pool of buyers, different fundamentals than those you quote.

[glassgowkiss]

If you compare the mortgage-to-income and rent-to-mortgage ratios in Manahattan and Vancouver situation will only look worse. Manhattan level prices - yes. Manhattan level incomes - no.

Look out below.

That is bullshit statement. there is a uber narrow group of high rollers from banking industry and financial sector, but a vast majority of people in NYC just scrape by. In general Canada is way more in line with fundamentals then the US.

[JayB]

If you compare the mortgage-to-income and rent-to-mortgage ratios in Manahattan and Vancouver situation will only look worse. Manhattan level prices - yes. Manhattan level incomes - no.

Look out below.

That is bullshit statement. there is a uber narrow group of high rollers from banking industry and financial sector, but a vast majority of people in NYC just scrape by. In general Canada is way more in line with fundamentals then the US.

 

Nope.

 

 

 

Etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc....

 

 

Canada's fiscal position is vastly superior to America's - but their consumers are at least as overleveraged, if not more, and their home values are dramatically more out of line with their incomes and other determinants of values like mortgage-to-rent.

 

If you have data that you think establishes the contrary case, I hope you'll post it.

[G-spotter]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/08/08/scotiabank-housing-report.html?cmp=rss