sexual_chocolate Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 Anyone have ideas on good returns? I'm personally favoring the financial sector. I think in the next few years, the well positioned bigs will make a huge comeback, especially citibank (triple returns in two to three years?). real estate is flat, but there'll be big opportunities as we approach the bottom of the curve in the next couple of (years? months? hmmmmm....) energy sector? new energies, small start-ups, green, etc, with decent returns with the big guys? then there's always the small caps or start-ups that have a great idea that's ready to blossom.... any thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayB Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 DCA into FFNOX or equivalent. The odds are quite high that you'll beat ~99.9 percent of actively managed funds over the next ~25 before you even take expenses or tax efficiency into account, and 99.999999% of individual investors - all while sustaining significantly lower risk. Lifestyle/target-date funds with an extremely low expense ratio would probably be even better for most people. I haven't taken a look but it should be possible to get a fund with an expense ratio of ~0.25 percent or lower if the underlying assets are invested in index fund and you are basically just paying someone to reallocate the funds assets into progressively more stable/conservative stuff as your retirement date gets closer. I used to enjoy reading the WSJ column in section C where they pitted half a dozen analysts and their favorite picks versus an equal number of darts thrown at the stock-listings. From what I can recall - it was dead heat after enough iterations. Fear_and_greed is probably worth PMing if you really want to play with your money, though. Seems like he might be one of the rare few who has managed to make a go of trading with his own dough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joblo7 Posted January 12, 2008 Share Posted January 12, 2008 buy a jag! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Conway Posted January 13, 2008 Share Posted January 13, 2008 I think in the next few years, the well positioned bigs will make a huge comeback, especially citibank (triple returns in two to three years?). Citimavens are currently hard at work figuring out how to split Citi into many pieces to raise money to survive. I doubt it will make a big return (unless you buy now before divestiture). Same goes for Bank "we'll buy a company about to go into bankruptcy and facing massive pending legal charges to position ourselves now for when the housing market rebounds in 2015" America. Asking for free investment tips? I'll file this under "Sexy Cocoa is dumber than tvashtarkatena" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willstrickland Posted January 13, 2008 Share Posted January 13, 2008 There's more people opining on this topic on the web that probably anything else. For people who don't want to play it like an odds game (e.g. making lots of trades with a positive expectancy -akin to counting cards in blackjack- and taking lots of small losses, using technical indicators, quant stuff, and charts as your primary tools) then I like the simplicity of Bill Cara's approach. Essentially buying only the highest quality companies when their share prices are beaten down, and raising your stops as the price cycle swings high. It's a simple accumulation zone/distribution zone concept that works well in the middle of market cycles. Currently, in the early stages of a bear market, probably best to sit in short maturation debt instruments and wait out the capitulation that typically marks true market bottoms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olyclimber Posted January 13, 2008 Share Posted January 13, 2008 bingo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sexual_chocolate Posted January 13, 2008 Author Share Posted January 13, 2008 (edited) Same goes for Bank "we'll buy a company about to go into bankruptcy and facing massive pending legal charges to position ourselves now for when the housing market rebounds in 2015" America. Asking for free investment tips? I'll file this under "Sexy Cocoa is dumber than tvashtarkatena" interesting analysis. time will tell how well our competing outlooks hold up. now for the part where you offer your own insights into where to move money.... (btw, i wasn't offering advice, only musing on ideas. heaven forbid if you should follow any investment advice from me!) Edited January 13, 2008 by sexual_chocolate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayB Posted January 13, 2008 Share Posted January 13, 2008 Here's an idea specially for SC: http://www.prosper.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomtom Posted January 13, 2008 Share Posted January 13, 2008 Lifestyle/target-date funds with an extremely low expense ratio would probably be even better for most people. I haven't taken a look but it should be possible to get a fund with an expense ratio of ~0.25 percent or lower if the underlying assets are invested in index fund and you are basically just paying someone to reallocate the funds assets into progressively more stable/conservative stuff as your retirement date gets closer. Vanguard Target Retirement Funds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billcoe Posted January 13, 2008 Share Posted January 13, 2008 blah blah blah Showing up and bagging on others without offering anything positive is a weak way to try and show you are smart. So bring it or stay home. I didn't diss on Jayb's DCA suggestion post, despite the horrendous negative return that shit pile has seen. Here's one: Apple (AAPL) currently selling at $175 or so. Check this in a year and lets see.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayB Posted January 13, 2008 Share Posted January 13, 2008 The DCA I was referring to was "Dollar Cost Average." Not sure if this changes the analysis... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sexual_chocolate Posted January 13, 2008 Author Share Posted January 13, 2008 Here's one: Apple (AAPL) currently selling at $175 or so. Check this in a year and lets see.... haven't they saturated the market already? what are you seeing here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Conway Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 Showing up and bagging on others without offering anything positive is a weak way to try and show you are smart. Actually, it's completely the opposite. If I were good at investing THAT WOULD BE MY FULLTIME JOB. I don't trust any advisor, paid or unpaid. Why? Because if you had good advice you'd STFU instead of reducing your own returns. If you had really, really good advice you'd start a hedge fund and make $$$$$$ I know I'm average, at best. From what I've seen thats better than 75% of the investors out there who conflate luck with brains and refuse to accept everything in life is probabilistic - so them making a million doesn't mean they were any smarter than the shmuck making 10,000. If you are good at it, go full time. If you aren't, let the professionals deal with it. If you are asking for investment advice on a climbing BB, well, ask yourself the first question.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sexual_chocolate Posted January 14, 2008 Author Share Posted January 14, 2008 Actually, it's completely the opposite. If I were good at investing THAT WOULD BE MY FULLTIME JOB. I don't trust any advisor, paid or unpaid. Why? Because if you had good advice you'd STFU instead of reducing your own returns. If you had really, really good advice you'd start a hedge fund and make $$$$$$ I know I'm average, at best. From what I've seen thats better than 75% of the investors out there who conflate luck with brains and refuse to accept everything in life is probabilistic - so them making a million doesn't mean they were any smarter than the shmuck making 10,000. If you are good at it, go full time. If you aren't, let the professionals deal with it. If you are asking for investment advice on a climbing BB, well, ask yourself the first question.... man, you sound bitter! sorry 'bout that, bro.... you seem to confuse a conversation about a topic as seeking "advice"; why is this? i'm also interested in why this topic has heated you up so? you seem to also think that someone who is "good" at investing is somehow obligated to "go full time". strange. investing is of interest to me. i like talking about it. there are plenty of others who like talking about it, and have made millions; the two aren't mutually exclusive, as you seem to think.... anyways, keep the deep insights coming! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Conway Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 you seem to also think that someone who is "good" at investing is somehow obligated to "go full time". strange. Why wouldn't you? If you are looking to make money, that's the best way. If you wish to understand the market, you must participate in it. If you are a dilettante your returns will be better couple to fate than your own effort. I can, and have, argued about anything under the sun. Your comment shows you are either a dumb cunt (my vote because you think someone who's made a bunch of money is a great investor - cure Nick Leeson) or a shit stirrer (when I'm sober and generous) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sexual_chocolate Posted January 14, 2008 Author Share Posted January 14, 2008 you seem to also think that someone who is "good" at investing is somehow obligated to "go full time". strange. Why wouldn't you? If you are looking to make money, that's the best way. If you wish to understand the market, you must participate in it. If you are a dilettante your returns will be better couple to fate than your own effort. I can, and have, argued about anything under the sun. Your comment shows you are either a dumb cunt (my vote because you think someone who's made a bunch of money is a great investor - cure Nick Leeson) or a shit stirrer (when I'm sober and generous) i guess you'd be drunk now? that's certainly what the level of your comments suggest (since they are off-point and full of pent-up anger....) but anyways, carry on, and keep plumbing the depths! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Conway Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 and keep plumbing the depths! you squeal reaaalll goooooddd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sexual_chocolate Posted January 14, 2008 Author Share Posted January 14, 2008 ah yes, the good ol' Anal Sex joke. that one always keeps 'em coming back for more. you are a true asset. i gotta say though that i prefer your deep financial analysis to your humor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Conway Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 i gotta say though that i prefer your deep financial analysis to your humor. insults like that from someone asking for advice from morons like me that post on message boards are priceless Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sexual_chocolate Posted January 14, 2008 Author Share Posted January 14, 2008 insults like that from someone asking for advice from morons like me that post on message boards are priceless you seem to be continuing with your comprehension problems. it does match rather nicely with your humor problems and your analysis problems though. you did get the moron part right though. ah yes, drinking and posting: here's a reason not to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olyclimber Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 GUESS WHO THE WINNAR IS GONNA BE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Conway Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 you seem to be continuing with your comprehension problems. it does match rather nicely with your humor problems and your analysis problems though. you did get the moron part right though. ah yes, drinking and posting: here's a reason not to. wanna invest in my growth fund? You are just the know-it-all with money to burn I need! -C Ponzi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KaskadskyjKozak Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 insults like that from someone asking for advice from morons like me that post on message boards are priceless you seem to be continuing with your comprehension problems. it does match rather nicely with your humor problems and your analysis problems though. you did get the moron part right though. ah yes, drinking and posting: here's a reason not to. don't let the bastard grind you down Cocoa!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Conway Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 don't let the bastard grind you down Cocoa!! chinga tu madre pendejo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pink Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 that's a good little lap dog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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