La Nina

[olyclimber]

Supposed to bring the cold to the PNW next winter.

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2572.htm

 

freshiez and WI for all????

[Recycled]

That's a 2006 article.

[ketch]

I don't want to hijack this thread too quick. But I frequently get frustrated by folk that don't get that global climate change means all the weather is goin to change. In last nights news coverage of the big I-90 accident and the "unanticipated snow" it was repeated by some of the victims that if you are worried about global warming this must be good.

 

The times they are a changin.

[AlpineK]

A variation in the weather doesn't mean that global warming isn't going to happen. It's just suppose to be more winter like next winter. The long term trend sucks.

 

All I know is I'll be happy to be on skis next winter.

[G-spotter]

This has been a good winter. There was lots of WI until the end of January, lots of FAs got climbed. And currently snowpacks are at or near record highs.

 

[kevino]

I must admit, I thought it said 'ninja.' I'm a little disapointed, but quite excited to use my ice tools again next winter!

[jmace]

That's a 2006 article.

 

here:

 

NOAA 2007 Article

[gapertimmy]

I only read weather/global related articles/media put out by Al Gore. Thanks though.

[olyclimber]

Al Gore

Al-gor-rhythm

 

coincidence? i think not. its all there in the numbers. fuzzy math.

[dmuja]

G-Spotter wrote: And currently snowpacks are at or near record highs.

 

Last year (05-06) was a bit better for snow pack (higher elevations on mt hood reveal noticeably less snow this year via photos) but it has been a fairly decent winter with slightly below normal temps and above average precip in the PNW.

 

Elsewhere in NA though, winter was slow to come in most places (with some exceptions that made the evening news). This warmer/dryer trend -in what is normally snowy and cold places- did fit the predicted "El-Nino" pattern.

 

On a related note (meant to be a bit satirical and not directed towards anyone in particular btw),

 

Seems like this comes up a lot.

 

DA DIFFRENSE TWEEBEAN CLIMATE AN WEDDER..

 

"Well its cold at my house and there is a lot of snow so global warming is a myth.."

 

Climate change is about "climate" not "weather".

Weather is small scale, climate is large scale and long term.

Global warming models predict long term large scale averages because they are about "climate" not "weather". Example is that the *average* arctic temperature is expected to rise around 12 degrees in the coming years. This doesn't mean that every single day, at every single point in the arctic, the temp will be exactly "12 degrees warmer than historical averages". It means that on average, over all, with a certain amount of variability, that the temperatures will rise about 12 degrees.

 

Again, "climate" is about averages, large scale, long term, historical, trends etc, "weather" is about what you will feel if you step outside at a single given moment in time, they are not the same thing.

 

The "weather" is effected by climate, but "climate" does not emanate nor dictate the weather. It is impossible to make an accurate or meaningful statement regarding climate based on "weather" alone or on ones immediate experiencing of the weather alone. This is because what we as human animals experience is limited by our senses which operate on small scale bio-experiential levels. To get a clearer, bigger and in a way "truer" picture we have to move beyond our mere sense of experience and actually use our brains and intelligence to see the big picture that is emerging. This is where the science of climatology comes in.

 

Weather varies hour to hour, day to day. Climate takes such variability into account and gains a perspective and understanding on the over all environment that is much broader than a single individuals momentary observations or experience of that environment. Hence, we can have moments, days, even years, where "Man we're having a good winter where I live" and yet still be in the midst of a clear trend towards a "not so good a winter".

 

Because we use our brains and intelligence (well many of us do) and don't rely merely on our base sensual feed back alone, we KNOW beyond a reasonable doubt that, eventually, the variances will necessarily catch up to the trends and we will ALL notice the change in the climate.

 

Of coarse, at that point (the point where we definitively notice the change at experiential levels) any effective opportunity for curbing the change will have long since passed.

 

 

Have a nice day. ;P

 

D

[catbirdseat]

This has been a good winter. There was lots of WI until the end of January, lots of FAs got climbed. And currently snowpacks are at or near record highs.

 

As I recall, the long range forecast for this winter made six months ago, called for warmer and drier than normal conditions. That is not what we got. Supposedly the Farmer's Almanac nailed it though.

[Weekend_Climberz]

G-Spotter wrote: And currently snowpacks are at or near record highs.

 

Last year (05-06) was a bit better for snow pack (higher elevations on mt hood reveal noticeably less snow this year via photos) but it has been a fairly decent winter with slightly below normal temps and above average precip in the PNW.

 

Elsewhere in NA though, winter was slow to come in most places (with some exceptions that made the evening news). This warmer/dryer trend -in what is normally snowy and cold places- did fit the predicted "El-Nino" pattern.

 

On a related note (meant to be a bit satirical and not directed towards anyone in particular btw),

 

Seems like this comes up a lot.

 

DA DIFFRENSE TWEEBEAN CLIMATE AN WEDDER..

 

"Well its cold at my house and there is a lot of snow so global warming is a myth.."

 

Climate change is about "climate" not "weather".

Weather is small scale, climate is large scale and long term.

Global warming models predict long term large scale averages because they are about "climate" not "weather". Example is that the *average* arctic temperature is expected to rise around 12 degrees in the coming years. This doesn't mean that every single day, at every single point in the arctic, the temp will be exactly "12 degrees warmer than historical averages". It means that on average, over all, with a certain amount of variability, that the temperatures will rise about 12 degrees.

 

Again, "climate" is about averages, large scale, long term, historical, trends etc, "weather" is about what you will feel if you step outside at a single given moment in time, they are not the same thing.

 

The "weather" is effected by climate, but "climate" does not emanate nor dictate the weather. It is impossible to make an accurate or meaningful statement regarding climate based on "weather" alone or on ones immediate experiencing of the weather alone. This is because what we as human animals experience is limited by our senses which operate on small scale bio-experiential levels. To get a clearer, bigger and in a way "truer" picture we have to move beyond our mere sense of experience and actually use our brains and intelligence to see the big picture that is emerging. This is where the science of climatology comes in.

 

Weather varies hour to hour, day to day. Climate takes such variability into account and gains a perspective and understanding on the over all environment that is much broader than a single individuals momentary observations or experience of that environment. Hence, we can have moments, days, even years, where "Man we're having a good winter where I live" and yet still be in the midst of a clear trend towards a "not so good a winter".

 

Because we use our brains and intelligence (well many of us do) and don't rely merely on our base sensual feed back alone, we KNOW beyond a reasonable doubt that, eventually, the variances will necessarily catch up to the trends and we will ALL notice the change in the climate.

 

Of coarse, at that point (the point where we definitively notice the change at experiential levels) any effective opportunity for curbing the change will have long since passed.

 

 

Have a nice day. ;P

 

D

 

It's like the common statistics that show that the east coast is losing 3 inches a year to the Atlantic Ocean. It's not that the coast is really creeping away every year, it's just that every few years about 20 feet get swept away in a storm. It all averages out.

 

Winters are going to get harsher and Summer are going to be hotter. Just have to start climbing at Smith and Vantage earlier and start hitting those Alpine ice routes just the same :tup:

[G-spotter]

Well Mount Hood, whatever, but for BC snow pillow data is showing snowpacks to be at 100-130% or more of average, and many stations are actually setting new records for snowpack.

[G-spotter]

For instance:

 

http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/rfc/river_forecast/graphs/spd1d15p.html

[dmuja]

Yeah its true we've (the NW) had a good snow year at the "snow band" level tween like 4 and 8 or 9 thousand ft or so elevation, it doesn't seem to correlate to higher elevations though. Thnx for the link!

[jmace]

it doesn't seem to correlate to higher elevations though

 

???

[dmuja]

mt rainier is a classic example of upper mountain getting less snow than lower down..ill try to find the link later but i got to go back to work now.