current NOAA El Nino forecast

[freeclimb9]

dated Sept. 12, a weak El Nino:

"Over North America drier-than-average conditions are expected in the Pacific Northwest and mid-Atlantic states during fall 2002 and in the Ohio Valley states during winter 2002-2003. Wetter-than-average conditions are expected in the Gulf Coast states during winter 2002-2003, and warmer-than-average conditions are expected in the northern tier of the conterminous United States, southern/southeastern Alaska, and western and central Canada during late fall 2002 and winter 2002-2003."

[terrible_ted]

Big deal.

 

This is the analysis that goes into figuring out TOMORROWS weather. That's right, the stuff that's about 200 - 300 miles outside my window, right now...

 

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO

BUILD OFFSHORE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 135-140W. MID LEVEL WARM

ADVECTION DECK OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND

WILL ADD THIS TO ZONE UPDATE. NEW MESO ETA IS SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH

THE NEXT SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THIS LOOKS

REASONABLE. MESO ETA STILL HAS 576 DM 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER KSEA AT 06Z

FRI AS FRONT MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. WILL GO AHEAD AND PUSH CHANCE OF

RAIN FURTHER NORTH AND SLOW DOWN THE TIMING IN UPDATE. ONCE THE FRONT

GOES BY RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF FOR SPELL OF DRY WEATHER. CURRENT

FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED.

 

"El Nino" has some slim meaning for dry farmers, fisherman and graduate students of oceanography and atmospheric sciences but, as a practical matter, it's useless for weather forecasting.

 

An additional 1" of rain spread out over 3 weeks doesn't matter at all, unless you happen to be out on the 2 days it all comes down.

 

-t

[mattp]

But Ted, I was looking forward to perfect weather, now 'till Christmas. You mean I can't count on this?

[Cpt.Caveman]

quote:

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Originally posted by mattp:

But Ted, I was looking forward to perfect weather, now 'till Christmas. You mean I can't count on this?

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Yeah throw away all your rain gear. It's going to be sunny this winter. Less rain and snow in Seattle than normal (instead of 149 days of rain we get 146).

[freeclimb9]

quote:

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Originally posted by terrible ted:

Big deal.

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What? You obviously don't see the value of NOAA's hard work. I'm using the report in combination with my tea leaf patterns to plot a winter's worth of activities.

At the very least, the NOAA forecast isn't promising for the refilling of Washington resevoirs not to mention PNW water-ice climbs. But there's no escaping the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle and all its implications.

[Scott_J]

So does this report mean that skiing in and around the Cascades will be poor to worse this season?

[jon]

Ridges of high pressure........

 

Anyways don't listen to this crap the skiing and ice climbing will be freakin plab this winter. You must project a positive mental attitude to magical freshie man in the sky.

[forrest_m]

terrible ted wrote:

quote:

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"El Nino" has some slim meaning for dry farmers, fisherman and graduate students of oceanography and atmospheric sciences but, as a practical matter, it's useless for weather forecasting.

---

ted, your point is well taken about el nino forcasts not being much use for planning your next climbing trip, but i think these forecasts are a lot more useful than you seem to think. In fact, the program is often held up as an example of the kind of "practical" science that appeals to politicians who might balk at "basic research."

 

"weather forecasting" includes a lot more than predicting clouds or sun for next weekend. arguably more important are long range forecasts - and the el nino forecasts have become some of the more reliable in this area - which are what governments and other organizations use to make decisions like "how much money do we allocate to emergency services this year." NOAA's el nino prediction program has been credited with saving (or helping to save, anyway) thousands of lives and billions of dollars over the last decade by allowing both wealthy and poor nations all over the western hemisphere to be more prepared for weather fluctuations.

 

what does this have to do with climbing? well, nothing. but since my wife works in the NOAA el nino prediction lab here in seattle, i feel obligated to set the record straight.

[terrible_ted]

quote:

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Originally posted by forrest_m:

In fact, the program is often held up as an example of the kind of "practical" science that appeals to politicians who might balk at "basic research."

 

- which are what governments and other organizations use to make decisions like "how much money do we allocate to emergency services this year."

 

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Oh my god, you're killing me!

 

Good science never influences governmental funding decisions in anything approaching rationality. The understanding of either pure or applied science in this country is laughable. That said, I'm sure it's largely as poorly understood in any other country as well... In at least that regard, American congressional representation mirrors the American people.

 

I'm glad your old lady has a nice gig working on understanding long-term climatic cycles. As a scientist with interests ranging across both pure and applied science, I can see the intrinsic value of hammering away at the big questions. But, I suspect that the "thousands of lives and billions of dollars" saved has more to do with NOAA's ongoing funding needs than it does with a critical causal analysis critically evaluating "informed" planning vs. "uninformed" planning. That said, I have no problem with it, and I play the game myself. Excise sticky details from final reports, oversimplify and emphasize benefits, extrapolate valuation figures, then go for the gold! Literally...

 

If it wasn't happening, we'd still be huddled in the remnants of our earthquake-shattered homes, spreading our viruses in hospitals, and consulting the Farmer's Almanac to see when the drought ends... Hey, wait a minute!

 

-t

[forrest_m]

ted, you’re probably right, hell it’s all voodoo to me…

 

actually, I think the cycle of hyperbole has yet another layer, because the way I understand it, governments in poorer countries who get hit hard by el nino (peru, columbia, etc.) use the NOAA predictions (which as you note are simplified & glorified in part to ensure continued funding for NOAA) as the rationale to ask for additional aid money from richer countries.. to “go for the gold” in your words. card houses atop card houses!

[JoshK]

Yeah, I'd never put too much stock in this crap.

 

Also, look on the bright side, a below average season here at least means we still haven plenty of snow. During a below average year in Colorado 3 years ago I skied on a whopping 6" of base (this was in JANUARY) and destroyed a set of skis.