Oregon Climatologists Forecast Wet/Cold Winter

[Gaper_Jeffy]

Three Climatologists associated with Oregon Climate Services have issued promising Winter forecasts.

 

From the first forecast, "The most compelling information we've noted is, in years where we have experienced an historically wet August (as we have this year), it was followed (90% of the time, or 18 out of 20 historically wet Augusts) by above normal precipitation for the remainder of the winter. In a few cases, we have seen extremely high rainfall amounts for the remainder of the winter. These years are also more likely than not to see at least one major snow event, possibly more. Some locations in Alaska have seen records warmth early this summer. If that pattern remains prevalent through the winter months, there is a greater than normal probability of abnormally cold air draining down from the arctic north."

http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/wint04/steve_forecast.html

 

 

The official Oregon State Climatalogist issued this, "All in all, we expect generally below-average temperatures during the first half of the season (Oct-Dec), with normal or somewhat above-average precipitation statewide. The second half of the year (Jan-Mar) should see above-average temperatures statewide and average or above-average precipitation (with western Oregon more likely to be above average). And watch for one or more extreme events this winter, particularly wind storms and rain storms.The best chance for extreme cold (and snow) should occur in December."

http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/wint04/04_05_forecast.html

 

 

And a summary of the third person's forecast who was initially just studying the probability of an extreme windstorm in the Willamete Valley:

"1) Snow and frigid temperatures seem a very real possibility this winter. December is the favored month for a potentially significant arctic outbreak, though it could be as late as February.

 

2) November and March may be particularly stormy.

 

3) October could be somewhat cool and damp.

 

4) A significant windstorm may occur--chances are deemed better than even."

http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/wint04/wolf_forecast.html

 

 

In addition to all of this the "Farmers' Almanac" predicts a "Wild Winter" see:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040830/ap_on_sc/farmers__almanac_8

 

In an attempt to thwart the bitterness from the RNC I'm cross-posting this message on TTips and TAY. I do realize a lot of folks read all 3 boards.

Edited September 2, 2004 by Gaper_Jeffy

[iain]

Yeah Taylor has been right on the money in the past

[Gaper_Jeffy]

Yeah Taylor has been right on the money in the past

 

I note that last summer he forecasted Oregon was due for an "extreme weather event". That January we had a record ice and snow storm.

 

As with all climatologists I'm sure he's been wrong a number of times. Only one of those forecasts is Taylor's.

[Lambone]

I hope this winter is like last winter...lots of Powder days in January...

[Fejas]

[rbw1966]

8=====D

[iain]

d >=8 ...er... dee equals eight..8>d..d=dammit I am such a n00b

[rbw1966]

Pwned again

[Dave_Schuldt]

So what does this mean for Washington?

[Gaper_Jeffy]

So what does this mean for Washington?

 

The first forecast mentioned is actually for the whole PNW. Not that it matters though as Western WA is generally affected by the same long-term weather parterns as NW Oregon.

[Gaper_Jeffy]

I thought this would be appropriate to bump.

 

What kind of complaint email should we send to George Taylor?

[cj001f]

I thought this would be appropriate to bump.

 

What kind of complaint email should we send to George Taylor?

Have you been fondling the Adrenalins again? Petting the Dynafits?

 

Do something in the sun; quickest way for the snow to come is to act like you enjoy this kind of weather.

[Gaper_Jeffy]

Have you been fondling the Adrenalins again? Petting the Dynafits?

All of the above. Plus I bought new skis today, they are green and sexy.

 

Do something in the sun; quickest way for the snow to come is to act like you enjoy this kind of weather.

Last Saturday I skied in the sun. Does that count?

[cj001f]

All of the above. Plus I bought new skis today, they are green and sexy.

Which ones?! Which ones?!

 

Mine haven't arrived yet.

 

Liking skiing in sun just means you should move back to Cali.

[Thudman]

Damn, I need new skis, but I think it might jinx the whole season. I was hoping Ullr would come through a little sooner, but NOAA is predicting a warm/dry December-February.

 

So, where's the road trip going?

[dmiller]

Aahhh, warm and dry!! That means no Snow. Oh darn, guees we'll have to wait till March. Maybe even next year! Bring on the sun if not the snow.

Edited November 13, 2004 by dmiller