tvashtarkatena

The sky is grey.

I've watched you do this with lots of folks when you've misread or don't understand something but won't admit it, Rob. It's a bit weird to go through the lengths you have to put it on display like this, but we've all got quirks. I'm sure my idea is clear to anyone else who cares, which is likely no one at this point, so I'm good. Change 5% to 1% or 10% and do the x^N independent events in a row equation and let me know when you come up with equal results.

"What's the probability of a high injury/death fall in any given situation? 5% might be low if you don't do it very often. If you take such risks a lot, however, 5% can catch up with you because the probability of making the move successfully over a multiple tries (N) = .95^N. So, the probability of making a 95% move 14 times in a row drops below 50%. Plus, are you really 95%, and not, say, 60% sure you can make the move? The odds very quickly fall out of your favor in that range." Word problems get a lot of people. No worries. Apology accepted.

The probability of flipping a 'heads' 10 times in a row is not the same as for flipping 'heads' 5 times in a row, even if the probability of flipping heads remains 50% every time. Do your own research on that, dood. I can't believe I'm besting you with a 35 year old stats class. If you're a free soloist and flipping a 'tails' means death - you need to flip a 'heads' every damn time - ei, thousands of times in a row over a climbing career It's exactly the same calculation as flipping 'heads' a bunch of times in a row, just with different number for the probability.

Hmmm, you get an F on that stats test, Rob The probability of something with an x% probability happening N times in a row is x^N. You need to not fall N times in a row in order to escape the consequences. Per instance versus lifetime probabilities of success are quite different. This is what six sigma is all about.

2 things: What's the probability of a high injury/death fall in any given situation? 5% might be low if you don't do it very often. If you take such risks a lot, however, 5% can catch up with you because the probability of making the move successfully over a multiple tries (N) = .95^N. So, the probability of making a 95% move 14 times in a row drops below 50%. Plus, are you really 95%, and not, say, 60% sure you can make the move? The odds very quickly fall out of your favor in that range. On the flip side, what is the risk of not climbing, given that sitting is one of the least healthy past times?

Well then get yo ass up here, cuz I ain't, either.

poison oak can be hard to avoid when you actually climb stuff

Quark if you're budget limited. Plenty used out there.

A chunk of bronze that size can last as long as 15 million years (that's actually true). Lenin will very likely become one of that last vestiges our time here on earth. The red paint on his left hand probably won't survive, however.

I'm going to act graver until that statue comes down. No, we don't know the gravity of a Russian invasion of another nation, GGK. What could possibly go wrong there?

I'll show ya somethin' biblical in length

Hey stupid fuck, why part of offensive you don't get? If I was still doing the sig thing, this would at least be a runner up. There is comfort in predictability. According to a historian on NPR, the Cry-Me-An-Intervention Russians have been there since the 18th century. Russia wants renewed access to the Black Sea? That's some hawt soopersleuth action right there, boy. I thought this whole thing was because the Ukraine's hicks didn't like Chicken Kiev.

Not to derail the White Hat/Black Hat narrative, but, as usual, the situation is a bit more complicated than Evil Statues of Lenin: Should the Ukraine split up?

Censorship, a literalist's intolerance to any idea with more layers than a piss stain, and punishment are the required troika for the anti-totalitarian. And speaking of that, just what ARE you doing to fight totalitarianism, GGK? Spraying all over our beloved Lenin notwithstanding.

You're a deviant, Ivan - no better than all those gay Russian emigres sent to succubusize the Supreme Soviet Man. Deviant, I say! Clearly, if we just TEAR DOWN THAT STATUE, the Rooskies will decamp from Crimea and become the New Sweden. I should know - its all there in that dog-eared Time I pilfered from the Jiffylube Guest Lounge.

If Europe and America burn only Lenin will remain.

Didn't click on your link, but I'll observe that a) you can only lay claim to what the offending statue means to you, and b) you choose that response, as opposed to a universe of other possible responses IE, If Lenin makes you feel angry or otherwise miserable - that's all you, man. You grew up in a totalitarian state - that's been overly established at this point, and your early authoritarian training seems to remain deeply embedded within you in that you a) very often claim to speak for others who clearly have not and could not grant their consent for such representation, and b) attempt to punish anyone who attempts to question you. There can be no real punishment, of course - you're just another innernut on a keyboard.

Volle 'big' scoop for camp making and customized Witco 'small' scoop for avi. Holes for pack mounting on both.

Climbing is work, skiing is sex. Aid climbing is like sex at work with an unreceptive farm animal.

Switched to a Reactor already? Find that old JB cup a good home! Ti preferred, but Al will do.

"Why is there a sudden updraft blowing past my ears?"

The day i see you hurtling earthward with a pair of skis is the day I move to Patagonia - assuming our airports are still operational post-impact. If you do strap on the long shoes, you'll need to change your avatar to Apophis.

Looks like a solid choice. Dynafit gear, in general, can be a bit testy in the failure department. Good customer service, though.

Five Tens run narrow.