JosephH

Well, if you've watched the weather in the Gorge as closely as I have over twenty years, you'd realize some storms and storm tracks relative to jetstream positioning are just a sure thing - not remotely a matter of chance or 'maybe' forecasts. And when the storms locked onto a powerful jetsream are as significant as those were you'd also know that conditions on the mountain were not going to be a matter of chance or any real variability - they're going to be successive freight trains barreling through. And we're not talking about potential storms - we're talking about storms that were largely fully-formed at birth off Japan that, based on the preceding storm tracks, were going to do nothing but gather energy and strengthen on their way across the NPac. If you really had any specific knowledge of the weather of those particular days you wouldn't make as stupid a comment like "every time bad weather was predicted". You guys can keep cluelessly attempting to portray that week as simply just another storm, or just another risk, but the fact is - for anyone with half a clue - it was a guaranteed sequence of big storms squalling through. And if climbers would put a half the effort into weather that surfers, windsurfers, and hang and paraglider pilots do we'd have a lot fewer fatalities in the mountains. As it is, a lot of these incidents and the general attitudes you're intent on selling look like nothing more than bold ignorance and uneducated gambling. But hey, maybe that's simply part of the alpine culture.

Jim just called again from work saying he's getting worked hard there and does in fact want to postpone to next Wed. Maybe the returning Valley team will be fully recouped by then...

Again, if you consistently watch NPac weather and the jetstream, it's pretty easy to tell which storms are a sure bet and which ones are going to be hard to call - these four storms weren't hypothetical or 'maybe' in any way shape or form - they were a sure thing guided home by a very strong jetsream parked over us. Nothing about that situation constituted your normal 'we all take risks' situation. In rock climbing terms it was like onsight free soloing 5.11's - great if you're good and nothing bad happens. You are right they tried to go in one of the windows, which was literally a 20+ something hour window - but the next storms were obviously barrelling in right on their heels. Light and fast? As I said, I don't do alpine so can't really speak to that, but I can't imagine three people being anything but more hassle than two, particularly when things start to go bad.

Jim just called and said if people are too busy this week that he could wait until next week, he has until the end of the month. He also said to put the word out that he's looking for a refrigerator...

I don't, but I climb and windsurf in the Gorge, watch the weather closely and know exactly what it means when four significant storms are stacked up across the north pacific all the way to Japan and marching lockstep to a strong jetstream that is hunkered down over PDX - three very short windows between really bad conditions across the entire mountain. Again, that week was a obvious freight train of bad news barreling through the Gorge consisting of multiple storms of sufficient magnitude to make the possibility of opportunistic localized effects on the mountain basically nil - each of them was going to bring full-tilt conditions across the entire mountain. Going in any of those windows left no room for error and little possibility of rescue.

Bullshit, the combination of Pacific infrared satellite and Jetstream positioning were a complete no-brainer for staying off the mountain then - it was in no way a matter of either a 'hindsight' or a 'had to be there' sort of deal in any way whatsoever. It was more akin to playing Russian Roulette with five rounds chambered.

I would if I could. You might try pm'ing Jeff (go_up), tell him I sent you...

Can anyone else make it tomorrow (Wed) night? Maybe call your friends who might not see this thread?

Thanks for the weather ref's. Not sure how to read the Jet Stream view in light of the multi-colored bar along the bottom but I guess I'll figure it out. This should be of even more use to me when I begin surfing. Intellicast's Jetstream graphic is probably a little easier to read, but is only the current position of the Jetstream whereas the Stormsurf link is a rolling forecast of where they think it's headed. The main thing you're interested is where it sits relative to its highest windspeeds. It's generally in a roughly east-west orientation moving north or south up and down the west coast from Canada to California, but occasionally comes in at an angle or a north-south orientation coming at us from west to east. Any time it's sitting right over us it usually means the storms coming in off the Pacific are going to be coming our way.

Two fundamental reasons from my perspective: Ignoring the weather and feeling compelled and obligated to climb because you've traveled for, and organized your lives around, a specific, short window for a climb. I'm not an alpine climber, but watch the weather closely in the winter so I can rock climb Beacon rock in the nearby Columbia River Gorge. I climbed both the day they arrived at the hut and the day they left it and had been watching the weather intently that whole week on Stormsurf's Pacific and Jetstream forecasts along with Intellicast's Infrared Sat. Significant storms were clearly stacked up across the North Pacific set to come in waves one after another and the Jetstream was on top of us. Window conditions in the Gorge were just dry enough for me to squeak in the climbs, but both days were a couple of the most brutal I've encountered at Beacon and was battling bitterly cold, steady 50-60kt winds and much higher gusts on the final corner ridge pitch. One look at the conditions out in the Pacific in combination with the position of the Jetstream told the story on Hood. My take is the lesson should be that locals have the luxury of picking and choosing their windows but travelers do not, and so should be prepared to back off on a lousy forecast no matter how far you've traveled or how much went into arranging your lives to make the climb possible.

Call it Wed. night then if that what works.

Bump, we could use 4-5 folks to really get it done fast...

Given this thread is in 'Newbies', and that fact the nothing about the physics of nylon has changed all that significantly in recent times, newbies rock climbing outdoors, particularly trad climbing, should stick with 10-10.5s and definitely nothing smaller than a 9.8 for a considerable period until they have established the experience and skills necessary to start making judgment calls around skinny ropes. In general, [significant] trad climbing on single ropes smaller than 9.8 is a lot like driving at 90mph in a nice car - you can't really perceive the potential for bad things happening so after awhile it's easy to forget bad things can and do happen. It's one thing making an educated decision on using a sub-9.8 single rope on a route-by-route basis trad climbing, but deciding that's your standard rope for all climbs - that's both mindless gambling and just plain stupid.

Jim said he'd like to try to do the move after work on Wed. or Thu., how about posting up your availability for either or both of those nights - I can do either one.

Will do Dave. I'm just hoping the rotting stacks of printed alpine scenes from some press aren't going - the movies are light...

I find just the symptoms of glaciers and thawing tundra by themselves to be compelling, but take the sun and volcanoes out of the equation and what's left really is us... "CO2 from active volcanoes is 1/150th of anthropogenic emissions" "Changes In The Sun Are Not Causing Global Warming, New Study Shows" "Apparent Problem With Global Warming Climate Models Resolved" "Scientists Agree Human-induced Global Warming Is Real, Survey Says"

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090512153335.htm ScienceDaily (May 15, 2009) — There has been sharp disagreement in recent years about how much, or even whether, winter snowpack has declined in the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon during the last half-century. But new research leaves little doubt that a warmer climate has a significant effect on the snowpack, as measured by water content on April 1, even if other factors keep year-to-year measurements close to normal for a period of years. Water content can vary greatly depending on temperature and other conditions at the time of snowfall. Typically an inch of snow at temperatures near freezing will contain significantly more water than an inch of snow a colder temperatures. "All things being equal, if you make it 1 degree Celsius warmer, then 20 percent of the snowpack goes away for the central Puget Sound basin, the area we looked at," said Joseph Casola, a University of Washington doctoral student in atmospheric sciences. ...

Jim has found a new abode in a Tabor Hill basement apartment - tentatively thinking about a Sunday 5/24 move date, but if enough folks could get together after work on, say Thursday 5/21, we wouldn't have to burn up a weekend day doing this. Jim said he's attempting to downsize some - we'll see, but at least he's trying...

Slings on horns and chickenheads - yep, that's what this is for (placed right/left directionally such that any pull on the sling tightens the slipknot around the horn):

Not sure how we ever survived without books and 'certified' guides though I'm sure a strong dose of common sense and thinking things through at every anchor played a large role in it...

Another case where Obama and his pragmatism were destined to disappoint. I keep pointing out that he came up baely skirting Chicago politics and there is no way to survive that doing anything radical or standing on too many principles. You probably wouldn't want to know what still passes for 'police interrogation' in Chicago when the chips are down. So far he's been pretty predictable relative to making no sudden moves on the environment, indian affairs, healthcare, and finance reform, but even I have to admit Obama isn't even meeting my low expectations on the Bush legacy front. This is why it's best not to elect traitors and felons to high office in the first place - it's culturally hard to undo their actions. Every time we as a nation fail to fully prosecute wrong doing in high office we open the door to Constitution-bending shennanigans. Obama's politically self-preserving stance on prosecuting Bush administration officials is realistic, but deplorable with serious consequences for our nation.

Placing and cleaning gear is one of the more interesting parts of roped free and aid soloing - you have to eat your own dogfood as it were. Over time it definitely changed how I set pro relatiive to being kinder on the second (me).

Would give you $50 + shipping...

Oh, I'd be happy to stay off all Ozone threads if Kevin would chill on the bird bitching - just illustrating the point.

I'd say more like when another kid fills in the Hamburglar's pants with a color you don't like on your page of the Happy Meal Coloring Book while you were off getting more fries...