JayB

Hey - there's a surprising revelation. Oh you setter of devious rhetorical traps.... The situations would only be analagous if the historical, political, and strategic contexts in which the decision to use force to address a threat were more or less the same. The middle east is different than the far east, Kim Jong Il is different than Saddam, North Korea's ability to level Seoul had no analogue in the the Middle East, there's no state equivalent to China in the Middle East, etc. If North Korea was an island in the middle of the Pacific, or an isolated state in the middle of the Sahara, bombing the shit out of them the first time one of their crazy ass leaders even said something in public that rhymed with "nuclear" would be an easy option. Pre-emption as a general philosophy makes more sense than "wait until hostile parties acquire all the weaponry that they need to strike at you and then scold them profusely and cross your fingers" model favored by the Democrats and the Euros, but unless you are constantly operating in the realm of pure rhetoric, you have to take entities like China and Seoul into account when making decisions. Flipping this argument on its head, once the sanctions were removed and Saddam resumed his weapons program, and announced his capabilities to the world after successfully wining the stare down with the US and the UN, you would by default support an immediate attack irrespective of the consequences?

Good point. Iran and Japan *are* equivalent societies in every respect, especially with regards to the threat that they pose to the rest of the world.

Don't think that's terribly likely, and if there's going to be a war, the presence or absence of US weaponry won't make much of a difference in the build up or the outcome. Besides, I think that the only way the Korean's would start anything with Japan is if they had China's backing, which is a possibility but not terribly likely. If push comes to shove I think that Japan prevails in territorial disputes with Korea under pretty much any scenario. The real players in that region are going to be Japan and China, and Korea will be a minor leaguer, exept with regards to N. Korea.

I'm more concerned about N. Korea selling its nuclear technology or bombs to other states or terrorist groups then them lobbing a nuke at us via an ICBM, which I think even the Koreans know would quickly bring a 1,000 fold retaliation upon them and mean the end of their regime, and that's just from us. In the meantime, the thing that's staying the world's hand is not the fact that N. Korea posesses nukes, it's that there's roughly 20,000 artillery pieces just over the DMZ that would probably wipe out most of Seoul, and a good chunk of S. Korea's population as soon as any conflict started. Not much more time to comment, but I actually think that the most effective play for the US here is to withdraw from Korea so that the Korean's have to live the consequence of their rhetoric and their actions, instead of letting the US play the bad cop and then stabbing us in the back at every opportunity. We'd still have the ability to strike at will via carrier groups, subs, etc. Other plays include using commercial ties with China to encourage them to hem in their attack-dog/bargaining chip, and hinting to both Korea and China that if they don't get serious we'll start arming the bejesus out of the Japanese and give them a free hand to do whatever they feel is necessary to preserve their security. I suspect that the prospect of a resurgent, heavily armed, and freshly assertive Japan next door might encourage both countries to get serious about dealing with Kim Il Sung and co.

Look before you leap - and check YOY valuations if you can. Not many popular locations overseas have escaped the effects of the global credit bubble that's been driving property markets around the world since late 2000-01.

Hurt my right shoulder in March when I was kayaking. Dropped over a pourover, the boat rolled to the right, and I extended my arm back and to the right to brace. The water forced the hull to roll even further rightward, which extended my right arm even further up and back, and I could feel a bit of pain in that shoulder, just in front of where the clavicle joins the shoulder joint. I have done nothing to treat the shoulder, and continued normal workouts. If anyone has a link to some at-home PT I could do that might be helpful, that would be great.

What kind of distance are we talking about for a RT with and without the closure? That looks like a beautiful place that I'd like to check out sometime. Mountain bikes will work in the short term but once the slide alder takes over....

I suspect that the folks that work with computers for a living might have more to say about this, but if all that you need to get past is the initial Windows2000 or XP password, you can find instructions that allow you to get past these on the internet.

That's true enough - but as others have said the scenario which lead to this accident is so common that some type of sign might have a beneficial effect. People still die on Muir Snowfield, but I suspect that the signs and the compass bearings available from the NPS has helped at least a few parties out, and without neutering the mountain.

Maybe just posting a large sign at the trailhead/parking lot that covers some of the known hazards, provides an overview of prudent safety precautions - like using intermediate pro on steeper terrain when you are roped up, etc. would help. Perhaps including a schematic overview of the previous accident, along with the AAJ write-up would prompt a few people to asses their gameplan before leaving the parking lot.

I thought one of the most interesting parts of the story was the one about the guy with the EE/particle physics background, who makes his living designing HVAC systems in Ontario, logging onto an istockphoto-esque site for technical problems, and getting $25K when he solved an applied chem problem that Proctor and Gamble's many thousands of R&D folks couldn't crack.

I live to cripple your mind with screens full of text. The article is actually pretty interesting - you should read the whole thing. I also thought that the hordes of decent amateur photographers who frequent this site might be interested in submitting some of their stuff to one of these sites. Even if you only make $5 a year, that's something. Better than languishing in the dark-recesses of your hard drive for all of eternity.

Wired Article "Claudia Menashe needed pictures of sick people. A project director at the National Health Museum in Washington, DC, Menashe was putting together a series of interactive kiosks devoted to potential pandemics like the avian flu. An exhibition designer had created a plan for the kiosk itself, but now Menashe was looking for images to accompany the text. Rather than hire a photographer to take shots of people suffering from the flu, Menashe decided to use preexisting images – stock photography, as it’s known in the publishing industry. In October 2004, she ran across a stock photo collection by Mark Harmel, a freelance photographer living in Manhattan Beach, California. Harmel, whose wife is a doctor, specializes in images related to the health care industry. “Claudia wanted people sneezing, getting immunized, that sort of thing,” recalls Harmel, a slight, soft-spoken 52-year-old. The National Health Museum has grand plans to occupy a spot on the National Mall in Washington by 2012, but for now it’s a fledgling institution with little money. “They were on a tight budget, so I charged them my nonprofit rate,” says Harmel, who works out of a cozy but crowded office in the back of the house he shares with his wife and stepson. He offered the museum a generous discount: $100 to $150 per photograph. “That’s about half of what a corporate client would pay,” he says. Menashe was interested in about four shots, so for Harmel, this could be a sale worth $600. After several weeks of back-and-forth, Menashe emailed Harmel to say that, regretfully, the deal was off. “I discovered a stock photo site called iStockphoto,” she wrote, “which has images at very affordable prices.” That was an understatement. The same day, Menashe licensed 56 pictures through iStockphoto – for about $1 each. iStockphoto, which grew out of a free image-sharing exchange used by a group of graphic designers, had undercut Harmel by more than 99 percent. How? By creating a marketplace for the work of amateur photographers – homemakers, students, engineers, dancers. There are now about 22,000 contributors to the site, which charges between $1 and $5 per basic image. (Very large, high-resolution pictures can cost up to $40.) Unlike professionals, iStockers don’t need to clear $130,000 a year from their photos just to break even; an extra $130 does just fine. “I negotiate my rate all the time,” Harmel says. “But how can I compete with a dollar?”" Anyone ever use one of the sites in the article to license their photos?

Extremo clearly had a hand in this. RIP IT UP. LOL.

Most bike bags have a strap that keeps the thing in place these days.

I think I am stuck with the bike-bag for now. Thankfully that will enable me to revel in the contemptuous glare of Robert-Smith-after-a-prolonged-crank-binge looking goth-types on fixies for the indefinite future.

If I was commuting on something like the Burke-Gilman and had a secure bike locker, the panniers would be okay, but I have to do a fair amount of curb-hopping, car dodging, etc - and the pack seems to work better for that. Plus there's the fact that at some point there's a pretty high probability that they'd get stolen. Plus I crashed 6-7 times over the course of the winter, and that was with studded tires, and I can't imagine panniers would make it any easier to stay upright, unless they were loaded with equal volumes of sand or something to serve as balast.

Text of al-Zarqawi Safe-House Document By The Associated Press 5:58 AM PDT, June 15, 2006 Text of a document discovered in terror leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's hideout. The document was provided in English by Iraqi National Security Adviser Mouwafak al-Rubaie: * __ The situation and conditions of the resistance in Iraq have reached a point that requires a review of the events and of the work being done inside Iraq. Such a study is needed in order to show the best means to accomplish the required goals, especially that the forces of the National Guard have succeeded in forming an enormous shield protecting the American forces and have reduced substantially the losses that were solely suffered by the American forces. This is in addition to the role, played by the Shi'a (the leadership and masses) by supporting the occupation, working to defeat the resistance and by informing on its elements. As an overall picture, time has been an element in affecting negatively the forces of the occupying countries, due to the losses they sustain economically in human lives, which are increasing with time. However, here in Iraq, time is now beginning to be of service to the American forces and harmful to the resistance for the following reasons: 1. By allowing the American forces to form the forces of the National Guard, to reinforce them and enable them to undertake military operations against the resistance. 2. By undertaking massive arrest operations, invading regions that have an impact on the resistance, and hence causing the resistance to lose many of its elements. 3. By undertaking a media campaign against the resistance resulting in weakening its influence inside the country and presenting its work as harmful to the population rather than being beneficial to the population. 4. By tightening the resistance's financial outlets, restricting its moral options and by confiscating its ammunition and weapons. 5. By creating a big division among the ranks of the resistance and jeopardizing its attack operations, it has weakened its influence and internal support of its elements, thus resulting in a decline of the resistance's assaults. 6. By allowing an increase in the number of countries and elements supporting the occupation or at least allowing to become neutral in their stand toward us in contrast to their previous stand or refusal of the occupation. 7. By taking advantage of the resistance's mistakes and magnifying them in order to misinform. Based on the above points, it became necessary that these matters should be treated one by one: 1. To improve the image of the resistance in society, increase the number of supporters who are refusing occupation and show the clash of interest between society and the occupation and its collaborators. To use the media for spreading an effective and creative image of the resistance. 2. To assist some of the people of the resistance to infiltrate the ranks of the National Guard in order to spy on them for the purpose of weakening the ranks of the National Guard when necessary, and to be able to use their modern weapons. 3. To reorganize for recruiting new elements for the resistance. 4. To establish centers and factories to produce and manufacture and improve on weapons and to produce new ones. 5. To unify the ranks of the resistance, to prevent controversies and prejudice and to adhere to piety and follow the leadership. 6. To create division and strife between American and other countries and among the elements disagreeing with it. 7. To avoid mistakes that will blemish the image of the resistance and show it as the enemy of the nation. In general and despite the current bleak situation, we think that the best suggestions in order to get out of this crisis is to entangle the American forces into another war against another country or with another of our enemy force, that is to try and inflame the situation between American and Iraq or between America and the Shi'a in general. More at the LA Times

Toss some snow in a black heft bag and poke a pinhole in a corner. Lay said bag across rock or pad to accelerate meltage. Hopefully I'll never be desperate enough to need the nalgene+hose combo.

I think that the Wenatchee River Fest was this weekend, plus this has been the best spring melt-off since '98, so you were doomed.

Very nice effort you guys. Cool route and an impressive round-trip time (IMO). What was your impression of the route,s exposure to rockfall, serac avalanches, etc? In some of the photos the line looks like it'd be threatened by plenty of both? Is this accurate or a bystander's misperception?

The secondary market for SUV's/Hummer's should be pretty active when the Great ARM Reset of '07 hits SoCal. Pretty foolish to torch what could become your primary residence IMO.

How heartbreaking to pass away after beating the odds and setting out on a path towards recovery. That's got to be terribly difficult for his friends and family and they have my sypathies.

Torch My Ride: Arson for Hire Debt-weary SUV owners unload their gas-guzzlers on insurance companies By Philip Reed Email | Blog Date Posted 06-06-2006 SUV owners who are faced with rising gas prices have found a new way to get out from under their high car payments — arson. This trend was spotted by a Southern California arson task force in the summer of 2005 when gas prices spiked. At one point, firefighters responding to a report of a vehicle fire arrived at the Los Angeles River Bed to find two SUVs burning at the same time. Investigators found the arson-for-hire ring involved a new-car dealership in Cerritos, California. Debt-weary SUV owners contacted the finance manager, hoping to trade in their gas-guzzler for something cheaper. They were then put in touch with an arsonist who told them to leave the keys in the ignition and $300 cash in the glovebox. An arsonist would then take the car to a remote location and set it afire. After the car was torched, the owners would then contact their insurance company and report their vehicle stolen, expecting their debt to be cancelled. Instead, they were investigated for insurance fraud. A sting operation was arranged and an undercover officer posed as an "upside-down" SUV owner who wanted his vehicle burned. "Upside-down" refers to a loan where more money is owed than the car is worth. The vehicle was left at a predetermined location with cash in the glovebox. However, the would-be arsonist didn't know there was a "dash cam" installed in the car to videotape his actions. When the arsonist removed the money and started to drive away, investigators hit a kill switch and triggered the door locks, trapping him inside. Simultaneously, warrants were served on seven other people involved in the arson ring. The loser in all this is the driving public. "You and I pay for it in our premiums," said Robert Rowe, arson investigator for the City of Downey and a member of the task force. "Insurance premiums for everyone increase when crimes [like this] are committed." Rowe said that "the likelihood of being caught [for vehicle arson] has increased tremendously. It used to be a dark secret but the secret is now becoming revealed. Investigators are now being trained and are networking with the insurance companies to uncover these crimes." At the root of the problem: People pay too much for a vehicle they really can't afford. "Because of the way the economy has gone, the gas prices skyrocketing the way they have, we started to see a peak" (in arsons), Rowe said. "People that had the gas-guzzlers that got eight miles per gallon, they started to get hit hard. They didn't want those cars anymore." Faced with rising gas prices, people who are trapped in a high-payment lease have no easy way to escape without a stiff penalty. "People will lease a car for 84 months with zero down and they have some outrageous payment," said Rowe. "They start to realize they are living beyond their means." The responsible solution would be to advertise the car for sale, pay off the loan and switch to a more affordable ride (even leased cars can be bought and then sold to get out of high payments). The irresponsible solution some people choose is to burn the vehicle and let the insurance company pay what is owed. A former firefighter from nearby Lynwood, California, said, "We used to get called out on vehicle fires and when we got there we would find a brand-new car was burning. Some of them were stolen but we knew that most of them were people trying to get out from under their car note. It seemed like it happened just about every night." Jennifer Mieth, manager of fire data and public education at the Massachusetts State Fire Marshall's Office, said car fires are "cyclical." She added, "When times are good, fires are down. When they are bad they go up." In 1984, Mieth said it was "commonly accepted for Mr. and Mrs. Citizen to 'sell' their car back to the insurance company by lighting it on fire." To put a stop to that, the Burned Motor Vehicle Reporting Law was passed in 1987. This required the owner of a burned vehicle to complete and sign a report that must also be signed by a fire official from the department where the fire occurred. The new law was the most likely reason that vehicle fires dropped 95 percent, from a high of 5,116 in 1987 to 217 in 2004. Vehicle arson has had a long and occasionally humorous track record over the years. In Texas, a car salesman was arrested after offering his customers what he called a "rotisserie program." He would have their cars torched; then, after they collected on the insurance, he sold them a new car. In another part of the state, two students were arrested after they torched their high school teacher's car in exchange for passing grades. Rowe, a firefighter since 1994, is in charge of contacting owners of burned vehicles to make sure their stories add up. While he hasn't seen any "rotisserie programs," he has heard his share of lies. Often he will begin his investigation by contacting the dealership where the car was purchased to see the sales jacket (loan contract) of a burned car. If the owner is upside-down, and particularly if they recently purchased "gap insurance" to make sure they were fully covered, they fall under suspicion. Actually, torching your own car isn't illegal, although as Rowe points out, if you have financed it, "you will pay for that burned-out shell for the rest of the lease." However, if you report the fire to your insurance company as accidental, when in fact it was arson, you have committed insurance fraud. "In the majority of the fires we have on the freeways, nine out of 10 times the owner is still with the car, or close by," Rowe said. So when a car is found burning, and no owner is in sight, it quickly becomes suspicious. In most arson cases, the car is reported stolen. But due to sophisticated anti-theft devices, it's not easy to steal a car without the key. Many owners become vague when Rowe asks them to account for the second key. Often, they maintain the dealership never gave it to them when they initially purchased the car. "We also look at the burn pattern [in the vehicle] going from the area of least damage to the area of most damage," Rowe said. "People who are burning it for insurance purposes want a total loss. The only way to do that quickly and efficiently before the fire department gets there is to use an accelerant." Rowe is not the only one who has seen an increase in SUV fires. Arson investigators in San Diego County saw vehicle arson go up 34 percent between 1998 and 2002, prompting analysts to surmise that more people facing economic hardship may be setting fires to their cars to escape high payments. Meanwhile, nearly 20 percent of all arsons occur in vehicles, according to the U.S. Fire Administration. Additionally, arson is the second-highest cause of vehicle fires. To better investigate these crimes, Rowe has educated himself on the car-buying process. What he sees shocks him. "The deals are out there, but when the pencil meets the paper the deals really aren't that great. You'll see a car payment that is incredible and their rent is incredible but their income doesn't support either. "People become desperate during financial hardship," Rowe observed. "It's not because they are bad people; they just get pushed into a financial corner and they make poor decisions. There are ways out of it — but people want a quick fix." For anyone considering this "quick fix" Rowe said he wanted to send them a message. Quoting the line delivered by Robert De Niro in the 2000 hit movie Meet the Parents, he said, "I'm watching you!"

Insane. If I was an ex-hippie in Fremont that bought 20 years ago I'd negotiate a sale which included long-term lease-back provision with any "investor" willing to fork over 1 million for my 1500 square footer from the 1930's, and then invest the proceeds in a low-risk basket o' investments that would generate enough income to cover whatever rent the property could realistically fetch. Keep living in the house, pocket gains from the crazy-ass sales price, and transfer the maintenance and spiraling tax liabilities, as well as the considerable downside risk to the "investor" in exchange for forfeiting whatever marginal inflation-adjusted upside still exists at this point.