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Opinion Concentrate (or sorry prole)


Peter_Puget

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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain up by three points, his largest lead since Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination.

 

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WASHINGTON (AP) - Republican John McCain has taken a modest lead over Barack Obama entering the final seven weeks of their presidential contest, buoyed by decisive advantages among suburban and working-class whites and a huge edge in how people rate each candidate's experience, a poll showed Friday.

 

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Why the unbridled glee, Pee-pee? Are you really that psyched about the Palin/McCain ticket? At this point in the election season, I am truly baffled at why anyone (with any inkling of capacity for critical thought, that is) supports McCain. The (mostly) deafening silence from McCain supporters on the hard turn towards cynicism the McCain camp has taken speaks volumes on a "by any means necessary" foot-soldier type mentality in what could have been an above the board, issues-based campaign. What I'm hearing from you Pee-Pee and other McCain supporters is: "nanny nanny boo boo stick your head in doo-doo" with regard to these new polling numbers. That Obama could lose this campaign because he refuses to engage in similar pandering and poo-slinging is not a good thing for our political system as a whole. Do you understand this, or do you just not give a fuck?

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It's funny to see folks like PP, who admits he doesn't unnerstan numbers too good, gloat about fairly meaningless or even contradctory poll numbers. Aside the fact that the Congressional and Presidential numbers are trending in opposite directions (???), and that the congressional only budged as a short term effect of the convention, the deeper question is what these polls are actually capable of predicting?

 

If you look at Gallup's prez polling since Kennedy, for example, you'll find their predictions have a standard deviation from the actual election outcome that averages 1.4%. For a 93% predictive accuracy, that gives us an error bar of 3 sigma, or 4.1%.

 

Although the average gallup figures from the past two weeks from the graph posted (in itself not enough data for much relevancy) still puts Obama ahead by 1.3%, and Obama is trending upward while McCain is flat (again, not very statistically relevant give the short period of time), McCain's most recent 48 to Obama's 45 in the graph given is well within the this predictive error bar.

 

As the GOP convention effect fades, and it always does very quickly, and Palin is exposed and humiliated, an outcome almost certain given her performace to date and her gross shortcomings, we'll likely see these numbers converge even further. In other words, the polls will be so close as to have no predictive value whatsoever.

 

The bottom line is that PP, although we know its a troll, at least appears to gloat over numbers that really aren't that compelling for his side at all.

 

Which is to say, Peter is a moron.

Edited by tvashtarkatena
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