Opinion Concentrate (or sorry prole)

[Peter_Puget]

linky

 

 

 

 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain up by three points, his largest lead since Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination.

 

linky

 

WASHINGTON (AP) - Republican John McCain has taken a modest lead over Barack Obama entering the final seven weeks of their presidential contest, buoyed by decisive advantages among suburban and working-class whites and a huge edge in how people rate each candidate's experience, a poll showed Friday.

 

linky

[olyclimber]

will be interesting to see where the polls go after the country gets to know who Palin actually is (and what she actually knows)

[Doug]

Kerry was up in some polls too....

[tvashtarkatena]

It's interesting that the trends of these two graphs contradict each other, an observation that was apparently lost on the original poster.

[Peter_Puget]

It's interesting that the trends of these two graphs contradict each other, an observation that was apparently lost on the original poster.

 

 

Please fully explain

[tvashtarkatena]

Nope. I wanna see if you can notice it for yourself. After all, you posted it. It's pretty obvious.

[Peter_Puget]

 

 

[tvashtarkatena]

Didn't think you had the noodle power, even though it doesn't take much.

[prole]

Why the unbridled glee, Pee-pee? Are you really that psyched about the Palin/McCain ticket? At this point in the election season, I am truly baffled at why anyone (with any inkling of capacity for critical thought, that is) supports McCain. The (mostly) deafening silence from McCain supporters on the hard turn towards cynicism the McCain camp has taken speaks volumes on a "by any means necessary" foot-soldier type mentality in what could have been an above the board, issues-based campaign. What I'm hearing from you Pee-Pee and other McCain supporters is: "nanny nanny boo boo stick your head in doo-doo" with regard to these new polling numbers. That Obama could lose this campaign because he refuses to engage in similar pandering and poo-slinging is not a good thing for our political system as a whole. Do you understand this, or do you just not give a fuck?

[tvashtarkatena]

It's funny to see folks like PP, who admits he doesn't unnerstan numbers too good, gloat about fairly meaningless or even contradctory poll numbers. Aside the fact that the Congressional and Presidential numbers are trending in opposite directions (???), and that the congressional only budged as a short term effect of the convention, the deeper question is what these polls are actually capable of predicting?

 

If you look at Gallup's prez polling since Kennedy, for example, you'll find their predictions have a standard deviation from the actual election outcome that averages 1.4%. For a 93% predictive accuracy, that gives us an error bar of 3 sigma, or 4.1%.

 

Although the average gallup figures from the past two weeks from the graph posted (in itself not enough data for much relevancy) still puts Obama ahead by 1.3%, and Obama is trending upward while McCain is flat (again, not very statistically relevant give the short period of time), McCain's most recent 48 to Obama's 45 in the graph given is well within the this predictive error bar.

 

As the GOP convention effect fades, and it always does very quickly, and Palin is exposed and humiliated, an outcome almost certain given her performace to date and her gross shortcomings, we'll likely see these numbers converge even further. In other words, the polls will be so close as to have no predictive value whatsoever.

 

The bottom line is that PP, although we know its a troll, at least appears to gloat over numbers that really aren't that compelling for his side at all.

 

Which is to say, Peter is a moron.

Edited September 12, 2008 by tvashtarkatena

[kevbone]

Dude. The polls are rigged just like the election.

[Gary_Yngve]

Yeah, the media needs to play the candidates to make it close till the end to make it exciting and sensationalized. If it were a blowout, the media would be back to reporting boring news.

[Peter_Puget]

WOW T you're truly amazing!

 

 

[tvashtarkatena]

You just gotta know your audience, PP, and I know libtards.

[tomtom]

 

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