I give up

[Peter_Puget]

..here are some items you might have missed:

 

Peak Oil we are doomed!

 

 

JayB aka Nostrodomus

[olyclimber]

link

[Peter_Puget]

Oly - Don't just write "Link" - try something more creative like:

 

You Go Chavez!

 

Peter

 

Imagine you link with the title "Career Opportunities."

[olyclimber]

"The Army said all the recruits with low scores had received high school diplomas. In a written statement, the Army said good test scores do not necessarily equate to quality soldiers. Test-taking ability, the Army said, does not measure loyalty, duty, honor, integrity or courage."

 

sooo......no soldier left behind? without good test scores, you're sure to be front line fodder. Lucky for those who are truly "not gifted", they won't have a diploma.

[cj001f]

Isn't it time for you to resign Rummy?

[chucK]

Problem: With an increasingly unpopular and dangerous war, one has to be more stupid to volunteer for the Army.

 

Solution: Remove restrictions on more stupid people volunteering.

 

QED

[Peter_Puget]

Oly you forgot the link!

[olyclimber]

it was a quote from the first link, linkenator.

[Peter_Puget]

I know Oly but the Elements of Linking Style clearly indicate that there should alway be a link .

 

[cj001f]

Vous n'avons pas style msr. puget.

[KaskadskyjKozak]

Vous n'avons pas style msr. puget.

 

Interesting typo, "monsieur". *N*ous n'avons pas... nous tous ici dans cette site, ne c'est pas?

[olyclimber]

I always suspected you were a Frenchie, KaskadskyjKozak.

[KaskadskyjKozak]

I always suspected you were a Frenchie, KaskadskyjKozak.

 

stultus eras, stultus es, stultus semper eris

Edited October 10, 2006 by KaskadskyjKozak

[olyclimber]

You clearly are un-American.

[Mr_Phil]

The Democrats should try the same for their next convention.

[KaskadskyjKozak]

You clearly are un-American.

 

*I'm* un-American?

[JayB]

..here are some items you might have missed:

 

Peak Oil we are doomed!

 

 

JayB aka Nostrodomus

 

While I'm certainly in no position to claim to dismiss Greenspan, it's worth noting that there are plenty of other economic heavyweights out there like Volcker, Krugman, Roubini, etc, etc who would probably take issue with that position, and if you read the NAHB reports, you could be forgiven for not including them in the list of those who agree with that assessment either. Their stocks did enjoy a bit of an uptick recently, but from what I read in the journal that was largely due to some large institutional value-players taking a position once HB stocks declined to somewhere just north of book value, at which point the long-term downside risk must start to look pretty limited.

 

Yesterday's journal also had a full-back page spread highlighting some fundamental metrics, none of which looked especially good at the moment, and all of which are trending downwards. Add in some long overdue regulatory tightening with respect to no-doc/stated-income/neg-am/option/arm and combine that with both negative real-income growth, the 1-2 trillion in ARM resets that'll hit in '07, rent-vs-PITI ratios that are off the charts, the record number of homes in the hand s of non-occupant owners, significant increases in short-salea nd foreclosure activity, and most significantly - the clear change in market psychology that's been manifesting itself over the past several months - and it's hard to argue that we'll be looking at anything reversion-to-mean (RE appreciation fractionally higher than inflation)for this asset class in the long term, and a continued adjustment in the short term.

 

My prediction for King County in general is a continued seasonally adjusted growth in inventory, more days on the market, and fractionally higher YOY median sales prices throughout the winter and early spring, followed by flat YOY prices throughout the late-spring early-summer, until mid-August or thereabouts when the combination of rising inventory and a still-slower sales pace finally starts forcing the fraction of the market who need to sell their homes to capitulate and start pricing the homes to move by late-summer/early-fall next year, and which should be followed by steady declines in real home prices through 2010. This process should be most dramatic on the outskirts of commuterland and in the condo market, and lessening in severity as you get closer to the city. Places with lots of buildable land that are well away from employment centers - like Bellingham - are going to get a mercilless pounding that should be both more severe and protracted than anything that happens in KingCo.

 

One new variable that'll get tossed into the equation is that now there's way, way more information available to the consumer, and anyone can get the previous sales price and current loan terms for any property that they're interested in with a few mouse clicks, and instantly compare that with as many other listings as they choose. I don't think these things are terribly important in the midst of a mania in which people routinely wave inspections , etc - but in a more normal market I suspect there's going to be a bit of psychological resistance to personally financing someone's unearned windfall, and it'll also be quite a bit easier to see if the seller's likely to be willing to negotiate on price because of his financial condition. There's already people out there who have refused to rent homes after they've looked into the landlord's finances/loan-terms and have discovered that there's a high probability that they'll lose the house to foreclosure.

 

None of this is terribly important if you're an existing homeowner with a mortgage that you can handle under all but the most dire circumstances, or if you are intent on buying in such a manner that this will describe your situation - but buyers planning on stretching themselves to the max and/or using an exotic loan, or anyone looking to make a quick buck should tread carefully for a while.

[Mos_Chillin]

Yes, Peter. You say you give up.

But I don't believe you, Peter.

Why? You might ask.

Because, Peter,

linking is something

you will never abandon.