Doomsayers!

[Peter_Puget]

 

 

Will the Dow close at or over 10k at year-end? Will it reach that level only to decline by Y/E?

 

Make your predictions now!

 

PP

 

[scrambler]

Dow Jones Industrial Average 9,924.31 12/04/03 04:16 PM Eastern Time Quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes

 

I wouldn't doubt it achieving or surpassing 10,000 this month. Appears that the general trend over the last three months is rising. I haven't followed the markets, etc. since the '90s, so won't venture a guess market will be up or down relative to a hypothetical 10k level.

[vegetablebelay]

Ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding

[lummox]

schweet. my portfolio will be swell. if i had one anyways. and if it were padded with haliburton.

[Scott_J]

Peter_Puget said:

 

 

Will the Dow close at or over 10k at year-end? Will it reach that level only to decline by Y/E?

 

Make your predictions now!

 

PP

 

FRIENDS OF MINE HAVE GIVEN UP HOPE ON THE MARKET. FORGOT ALL STOCKS AND WALKED AWAY FROM STRESS. THEY IGNORE THE QUARTERLY REPORTS AND SHRED THEM. THINKING THEIR CHILDREN WILL GET BACK WHAT WAS LOST IN THE FAR OFF FUTURE.

[Jim]

Probably will creep above 10 but won't stay there long. Only lost about 2% in the big dip cause I yanked just before. This year up 18%. Gotta get in as it's the only game in town in the long term. You don't think Social Security is going to be around when you retire do you?

[willstrickland]

If your worried about where the number will sit at year's end, you're in the wrong game my friend. I have no stress with my portfolio because I buy, and hold, and hold, and hold, and hold somemore. Something drastic has to be on the horizon before I make big changes. I'll dump an underperformer occasionally...I used to be hot on Alcoa, then with problems with their wet cathode smelting technology they were developing, decreasing worldwide demand, and high energy costs in an industry that is extremely heavily dependent on cheap energy...I dumped it, at a profit too. I got all my ducats out before the tech bubble collapsed...if you didn't see it coming, you were a fucking idiot...AskJeeves.com at $84? riiiiggghhttt. WebVan at $104? Uhhh, yeah. Once it bottomed out in the 7000s, I put it all right back in. Even today you've got what are essentially bastardized media companies...Yahoo, trading at far beyond their actual worth. Show me revenue, show me profit, show me assets. People are too focused on growth stocks, hoping to catch the next rising star...well it ain't a sprint kids, it's a marathon.

 

On of the simplest things you can do is put more money in when the market goes south. It's bargain shopping. It's highly unlikely that an established blue chip will not recover and push to new heights. But again, which blue chips? People love Dell, and yeah Mike Dell is a phenomenally savy businessman, but at this point in time PCs are a commodity market. You can only outsource, resource, and streamline supply lines and production so much. After that, what happens? Nothing, you're sitting on an overvalued commodity because you expected it to keep growing. Study Buffet, study Dodd, study Graham. Read Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run. Learn to read a balance sheet. Know who the leading three firms are in the sectors you're invested in. Find the 10-50 year trends that will drive our future...i.e. aging baby boomer population, and exploit it. Whether the Dow's at 10k , 9k, or 11k is the big "so what". Short term fluctuations are a byproduct of brokers and analysts trying to make short term numbers and boost transaction costs.

[allthumbs]

are you rolling your eyes, Veggie?

[RobBob]

Boy, cc.com is where I want to get my advice on the capital markets!

[Peter_Puget]

Rising DJIA, increase in the number of jobs, no Iraq disaster ...yet.

 

I smell a Republican victory greateer than 1972. Will Bush win in both CA and Mass. Maybe.

 

PP

[RobBob]

not to mention the great Dean-Gore alliance...

[Charlie]

willstrickland said:

If your worried about where the number will sit at year's end, you're in the wrong game my friend. I have no stress with my portfolio because I buy, and hold, and hold, and hold, and hold somemore. Something drastic has to be on the horizon before I make big changes. I'll dump an underperformer occasionally...I used to be hot on Alcoa, then with problems with their wet cathode smelting technology they were developing, decreasing worldwide demand, and high energy costs in an industry that is extremely heavily dependent on cheap energy...I dumped it, at a profit too. I got all my ducats out before the tech bubble collapsed...if you didn't see it coming, you were a fucking idiot...AskJeeves.com at $84? riiiiggghhttt. WebVan at $104? Uhhh, yeah. Once it bottomed out in the 7000s, I put it all right back in. Even today you've got what are essentially bastardized media companies...Yahoo, trading at far beyond their actual worth. Show me revenue, show me profit, show me assets. People are too focused on growth stocks, hoping to catch the next rising star...well it ain't a sprint kids, it's a marathon.

 

On of the simplest things you can do is put more money in when the market goes south. It's bargain shopping. It's highly unlikely that an established blue chip will not recover and push to new heights. But again, which blue chips? People love Dell, and yeah Mike Dell is a phenomenally savy businessman, but at this point in time PCs are a commodity market. You can only outsource, resource, and streamline supply lines and production so much. After that, what happens? Nothing, you're sitting on an overvalued commodity because you expected it to keep growing. Study Buffet, study Dodd, study Graham. Read Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run. Learn to read a balance sheet. Know who the leading three firms are in the sectors you're invested in. Find the 10-50 year trends that will drive our future...i.e. aging baby boomer population, and exploit it. Whether the Dow's at 10k , 9k, or 11k is the big "so what". Short term fluctuations are a byproduct of brokers and analysts trying to make short term numbers and boost transaction costs.

Nicely said. I've misjudge you- you might be cool after all.

[scrambler]

RobBob said:

Boy, cc.com is where I want to get my advice on the capital markets!

 

 

Nov. Insider Stock Sales Hit 2-Year High

 

Stock sales by top U.S. corporate executives reached their highest level in more than two years in November, a bearish signal at a time when the stock market has surged amid strong growth in the economy and company earnings.

 

Last month corporate executives cashed in $4.5 billion worth of their own companies' shares, up 43 percent from October and nearly double the five-year monthly average, according to Thomson Financial's Insider Research, which tracks insider transactions.

 

Meanwhile 3,680 executives from 1,592 companies engaged in share sales. Both measures set five-year highs.

 

In recent weeks investors have been barraged by positive economic data and better than expected third-quarter earning reports, sustaining a rally in U.S. stocks. On Wednesday the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average and the broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index reached 18-month highs, while the Nasdaq Composite Index briefly broke the 2,000 barrier for the first time in 22 months before pulling back.

 

Yet heavy insider sales could give investors pause, since top executives and directors are perceived as knowing their company's prospects best and therefore the figures can serve as a gauge of executive confidence.

 

__________________________________________________

 

Ok, so I guess if DJIA hits 10K then it'll head down into the new year. Just read this morning that layoffs continue with SBC Communications which plans to eliminate 3,000 to 4,000 jobs and Washington Mutual will fire 2,900 as home loans slow.

 

Note: SBC Communications (SBC) is part of DJIA but Washington Mutual is listed in S&P 500.

Edited December 9, 2003 by scrambler