Extreme weather

[j_b]

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=421166

 

Reaping the whirlwind

Extreme weather prompts unprecedented global warming alert

03 July 2003

 

 

In an astonishing announcement on global warming and extreme weather, the World Meteorological Organisation signalled last night that the world's weather is going haywire.

 

In a startling report, the WMO, which normally produces detailed scientific reports and staid statistics at the year's end, highlighted record extremes in weather and climate occurring all over the world in recent weeks, from Switzerland's hottest-ever June to a record month for tornadoes in the United States - and linked them to climate change.

 

The unprecedented warning takes its force and significance from the fact that it is not coming from Greenpeace or Friends of the Earth, but from an impeccably respected UN organisation that is not given to hyperbole (though environmentalists will seize on it to claim that the direst warnings of climate change are being borne out).

 

The Geneva-based body, to which the weather services of 185 countries contribute, takes the view that events this year in Europe, America and Asia are so remarkable that the world needs to be made aware of it immediately.

 

The extreme weather it documents, such as record high and low temperatures, record rainfall and record storms in different parts of the world, is consistent with predictions of global warming. Supercomputer models show that, as the atmosphere warms, the climate not only becomes hotter but much more unstable. "Recent scientific assessments indicate that, as the global temperatures continue to warm due to climate change, the number and intensity of extreme events might increase," the WMO said, giving a striking series of examples.

 

In southern France, record temperatures were recorded in June, rising above 40C in places - temperatures of 5C to 7C above the average.

 

In Switzerland, it was the hottest June in at least 250 years, environmental historians said. In Geneva, since 29 May, daytime temperatures have not fallen below 25C, making it the hottest June recorded.

 

In the United States, there were 562 May tornadoes, which caused 41 deaths. This set a record for any month. The previous record was 399 in June 1992.

 

In India, this year's pre-monsoon heatwave brought peak temperatures of 45C - 2C to 5C above the norm. At least 1,400 people died in India due to the hot weather. In Sri Lanka, heavy rainfall from Tropical Cyclone 01B exacerbated wet conditions, resulting in flooding and landslides and killing at least 300 people. The infrastructure and economy of south-west Sri Lanka was heavily damaged. A reduction of 20-30 per cent is expected in the output of low-grown tea in the next three months.

 

Last month was also the hottest in England and Wales since 1976, with average temperatures of 16C. The WMO said: "These record extreme events (high temperatures, low temperatures and high rainfall amounts and droughts) all go into calculating the monthly and annual averages, which, for temperatures, have been gradually increasing over the past 100 years.

 

"New record extreme events occur every year somewhere in the globe, but in recent years the number of such extremes have been increasing.

 

"According to recent climate-change scientific assessment reports of the joint WMO/United Nations Environmental Programme Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global average surface temperature has increased since 1861. Over the 20th century the increase has been around 0.6C.

 

"New analyses of proxy data for the northern hemisphere indicate that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is likely to have been the largest in any century during the past 1,000 years."

 

While the trend towards warmer temperatures has been uneven over the past century, the trend since 1976 is roughly three times that for the whole period.

 

Global average land and sea surface temperatures in May 2003 were the second highest since records began in 1880. Considering land temperatures only, last May was the warmest on record.

 

It is possible that 2003 will be the hottest year ever recorded. The 10 hottest years in the 143-year-old global temperature record have now all been since 1990, with the three hottest being 1998, 2002 and 2001.

 

The unstable world of climate change has long been a prediction. Now, the WMO says, it is a reality.

 

[JoshK]

Yet the morons in the white house will continue to ignore these signs.

[Dr_Flash_Amazing]

Well, duh; all those scientists are just part of the Liberal Jewish Anti-Americapitalist UN Propaganda Machine anyway. Come on, now; you two know better than to believe this kind of dreck, don't you? Haven't you listened to any thing the freemarketGoat has said?

 

Fuckin' x infinity.

[RobBob]

What about those puffs of smoke coming out of Rainier?

[Kiwi]

Dr_Flash_Amazing said:

Well, duh; all those scientists are just part of the Liberal Jewish Anti-Americapitalist UN Propaganda Machine anyway. Come on, now; you two know better than to believe this kind of dreck, don't you? Haven't you listened to any thing the freemarketGoat has said?

 

Fuckin' x infinity.

Anti-American and Jewish in the same breath?

[j_b]

the article does not get into the huge human and economic cost of extreme weather but it is very real (tornados, floods, wind storms, etc ..). considering that it would take several decades before we can reverse the human contribution to warming, how long before these costs become greater than investing in non-fossil fuel forms of energy?

[Dru]

hey, faster winds = more clean green wind power

[allthumbs]

nothing quite like 20 miles of white windmills to look at

[RobBob]

Through ice sampling etc. we have gathered temperature and other data about millions of years of climate conditions on earth. Regardless of any of our opinions about the status of global warming, I defy any of you with half a scientific brain to draw any climatic conclusions about THIS YEAR'S weather. That would be dumb.

[Dru]

RobBob said:

Through ice sampling etc. we have gathered temperature and other data about millions of years of climate conditions on earth. Regardless of any of our opinions about the status of global warming, I defy any of you with half a scientific brain to draw any climatic conclusions about THIS YEAR'S weather. That would be dumb.

 

It's gonna rain on the day I am invited on a picnic date. That's almost 100% accurate conclusion

[j_b]

it's not just this year, read the article.

[RobBob]

In a startling report, the WMO, which normally produces detailed scientific reports and staid statistics at the year's end, highlighted record extremes in weather and climate occurring all over the world in recent weeks, from Switzerland's hottest-ever June to a record month for tornadoes in the United States - and linked them to climate change.

j_b, what part of that did I misunderstand?

 

All I can figure is that some cub reporter looking for sensationalism put spin on the release. It happens all the time in our mainstream press with medical findings. New England journal publishes findings, New York Times spins and overplays the story.

[Dru]

Hot weather and higher winds = more tree damage = more work for Kurt

 

Shouldn't this thread be in the NEW TREE KILLING FORUM

[j_b]

trask said:

nothing quite like 20 miles of white windmills to look at

 

true enough, though now they are building huge windmills offshore in northern europe.

 

here is another method: http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/19284/story.htm

[RobBob]

What slays me is how RFK, Jr. the environmentalist is against windmills in his home area. NIMBY!

[j_b]

RobBob said:

In a startling report, the WMO, which normally produces detailed scientific reports and staid statistics at the year's end, highlighted record extremes in weather and climate occurring all over the world in recent weeks, from Switzerland's hottest-ever June to a record month for tornadoes in the United States - and linked them to climate change.

j_b, what part of that did I misunderstand?

 

All I can figure is that some cub reporter looking for sensationalism put spin on the release. It happens all the time in our mainstream press with medical findings. New England journal publishes findings, New York Times spins and overplays the story.

 

"New record extreme events occur every year somewhere in the globe, but in recent years the number of such extremes have been increasing."

 

[j_b]

http://www.climatechangesolutions.com/english/science/weather.htm

 

"It is therefore significant that data collected by insurance companies show a striking 30-year global trend in extreme weather. Comparing the figures for the 1960s and the 1990s, the number of great natural catastrophes (mostly floods and storms) has risen three-fold, and the associated economic losses have grown by a factor of nine (after adjusting for inflation). Even though more people today live in vulnerable areas and own more property that can be damaged, the trend cannot be explained away."

 

 

[RobBob]

Even though more people today live in vulnerable areas and own more property that can be damaged, the trend cannot be explained away

They just explained it...take a look at US coastal structures, and compare itthem to what was(n't) there the 1960s and 70s.

 

What about windmills, are you with or against RFK's stance on windmills near home?

[j_b]

They just explained it...take a look at US coastal structures, and compare itthem to what was(n't) there the 1960s and 70s.

 

we are talking worldwide trend. some specific examples may differ from the general rule.

 

What about windmills, are you with or against RFK's stance on windmills near home?

 

i don't know. it depends whether the eyesore is very important, whether birds are affected, whether there are alternative sites providing less impact (offshore, etc ..), and on.

[hakioawa]

j_b said:

http://www.climatechangesolutions.com/english/science/weather.htm

 

"It is therefore significant that data collected by insurance companies show a striking 30-year global trend in extreme weather. Comparing the figures for the 1960s and the 1990s, the number of great natural catastrophes (mostly floods and storms) has risen three-fold, and the associated economic losses have grown by a factor of nine (after adjusting for inflation). Even though more people today live in vulnerable areas and own more property that can be damaged, the trend cannot be explained away."

 

These kinds of studies are dangerous. Let me say I do beilieve in anthropogenic climate change. But the extreme events arguement is dubious. How much more weather data do we have not then 1960. There weren't even weather sattalites then. I thikn I remember reading that the whole of scientific knowledge double every 10 years. So we would expect something like 5-10 times the number of extreme events now then 40 years ago.

 

How many of those houses on mt. lemmon in AZ were there in 1960. Probably not many. There will be millions in insurance claims for them. 40 years ago there would not have been. There are also a lot more people and structures to insure now too.

[RobBob]

i don't know. it depends whether the eyesore is very important, whether birds are affected, whether there are alternative sites providing less impact (offshore, etc ..), and on.

 

Okay, I just wanted to enjoy hearing an enviroperson struggle with reducing fossil fuel emmissions versus 'eyesores in the backyard.'

 

Follow-up: If we could cut fossil-fuel emmissions in half by installing windmills offshore and onshore, but it reduced the seagull population by half, nearly exterminated the double-crested cormorant, and plucked large numbers of Canadian geese, would you be for it?

[hakioawa]

it reduced the seagull population by half, nearly exterminated the double-crested cormorant, and plucked large numbers of Canadian geese, would you be for it?

 

Could you arrange only for all the canada geese to be exterminated?

[E-rock]

Anecdotal evidence is not science. Weather extremes are anecdotal.

[j_b]

hakioawa said:

j_b said:

http://www.climatechangesolutions.com/english/science/weather.htm

 

"It is therefore significant that data collected by insurance companies show a striking 30-year global trend in extreme weather. Comparing the figures for the 1960s and the 1990s, the number of great natural catastrophes (mostly floods and storms) has risen three-fold, and the associated economic losses have grown by a factor of nine (after adjusting for inflation). Even though more people today live in vulnerable areas and own more property that can be damaged, the trend cannot be explained away."

 

These kinds of studies are dangerous. Let me say I do beilieve in anthropogenic climate change. But the extreme events arguement is dubious. How much more weather data do we have not then 1960. There weren't even weather sattalites then. I thikn I remember reading that the whole of scientific knowledge double every 10 years. So we would expect something like 5-10 times the number of extreme events now then 40 years ago.

 

How many of those houses on mt. lemmon in AZ were there in 1960. Probably not many. There will be millions in insurance claims for them. 40 years ago there would not have been. There are also a lot more people and structures to insure now too.

 

i agree that using insurance data to make the point is not straight forward. but as explained in the paragraph quoted, despite accounting for inflation and the increase in number of insured property, "the trend cannot be explained away". yet i am sure this use of insurance data will remain controversial.

 

it is true that scientific knowledge increases rapidly but there are regions of the world where the record of extreme weather events is well established because of the loss in human lives and destruction of property. it is at least the case in western europe and other industrialized nations where for the past ~150 years people have lived in flood plains, etc ...

 

although the detailed data set is not very large yet, all studies (mostly modeling up to this wmo report) that i am aware of point in the same direction: a large increase in extreme climatic events.

 

here is the original wmo press release:

 

Geneva, 2 July 2003 - Record extremes in weather and climate events continue to occur around the world. Recent scientific assessments indicate that, as the global temperatures continue to warm due to climate change, the number and intensity of extreme events might increase, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) states in a press release issued today.

 

In June, record high temperatures were recorded across southern France, with maximum temperatures exceeding 40°C in parts of southwest France. This resulted in June average temperatures of 5 to 7°C above the long-term average. In Switzerland, the month of June was the hottest in at least the past 250 years, according to environmental historians. In Geneva, since 29 May, maximum daytime temperatures did not drop below 25°C, making June the hottest June on record for the city.

 

In the United States, there were 562 tornados during May, which resulted in 41 deaths. This established a record for the number of tornados in any month. The previous monthly record was 399 tornados in June 1992. In the eastern and southeastern part of the US, wet and cold conditions prevailed for well over a month. Weekly negative temperature anomalies of –2°C to

–6°C were experienced in May while precipitation excesses, ranging from 50 mm to 350 mm over a period of more than 12 weeks starting in March 2003, have been recorded.

 

In India, this year’s pre-monsoon heat wave brought peak temperatures of between 45°C and 49°C which correspond to weekly temperature departures from the normal of +2 to +5°C. At least 1400 people died in India due to the hot weather. In Sri Lanka, heavy rainfalls from Tropical Cyclone 01B exacerbated already wet conditions, resulting in flooding and landslides and killing at least 300 people. The infrastructure and economy of southwestern Sri Lanka was heavily damaged. A reduction of 20-30% is expected for the output of low-grown tea in the next three months.

 

These record extreme events (high temperatures, low temperatures and high rainfall amounts and droughts) all go into calculating the monthly and annual averages which, for temperatures, have been gradually increasing over the past 100 years. New record extreme events occur every year somewhere in the globe, but in recent years the number of such extremes have been increasing. According to recent climate change scientific assessment reports of the joint WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global average surface

temperature has increased since 1861. Over the 20th century the increase has been around 0.6°C. This value is about 0.15°C larger than that estimated by the previous reports. New

-2-

 

analyses of proxy data for the Northern Hemisphere indicate that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is likely to have been the largest in any century during the past 1000 years. It is also likely that, in the Northern Hemisphere, the 1990s were the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year. While the trend towards warmer globally averaged surface temperatures has been uneven over the course of the last century, the trend for the period since 1976 is roughly three times that for the past 100 years as a whole. Global average land and sea surface temperatures in May 2003 were the second highest since records began in 1880. Considering land temperatures only, last May was the warmest on record.

 

The influence of El Niño and La Niña on these extreme events is in general undefined. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and its Members, the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services along with various research institutes, will continue to organize research and document the influence of El Niño and other large scale climate phenomena on climate extreme events.

 

[j_b]

E-rock said:

Anecdotal evidence is not science. Weather extremes are anecdotal.

 

not anymore.