rob Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 http://norvig.com/election-faq-2012.html cool site. I won't say anything else about it, though, to give kevbone a chance to read every word on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tvashtarkatena Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Looks cobbled together. All seriousness aside, though, there's a ton of great stuff there for the political super dweeb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 peter norvig is my new crush. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Better Poll Analysis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 Many of norvig's charts are from fivethrityeight -- he's just an aggregate. I don't think any of those charts are his, if you click them they'll take you to the source. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tvashtarkatena Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 He's just an aggregator, but I like the array of disparate data he's assembled, most especially the US economic data. Silver's analysis is good. He explains his robustness analyses well. He tries to look at things from a number of different standpoints. A small team of statisticians with varying viewpoints would probably produce even more robust analyses, but, in the end, its a predictive model - and it there is only so much inherent value one can squeeze out of it. FWIW, Silver's 538 model currently shows a 4:1 chance of an Obama win - kind of hard not to feel a little shamefully premature stoke if you're of a commie/librul bent. The trend of this probability is clearly on the rise and even seems to have a wee bit of acceleration, much like the curvature of an increasingly cheerful John Thomas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glassgowkiss Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 all these polls are wrong! the main issue is that latinos are very poorly sampled and they will decide the outcome of this election. That is why republidumbs fucked themselves in the ass, by running on anti-immigration platform. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 all these polls are wrong! You're like, an expert on EVERYTHING! I'm impressed! You must read a lot? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pink Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 all these polls are wrong! You're like, an expert on EVERYTHING! I'm impressed! You must read a lot? aka CARL HUNGUS [video:youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FiG7z1lrs70 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glassgowkiss Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 [video:youtube]hcQIOFq8JXY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tvashtarkatena Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 294/244 fer Obama. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 NObama!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 [video:youtube] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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